Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Dinner]

A nice run down with the Hill.

https://youtu.be/OwonLYqKc80

[PLATO]

Great threadjack. Meanwhile in Ukraine people are still dying and a country is fighting for its right to exist.

To try and move it a little bit back on topic...if Ukraine was bribing Biden, then it seems like it was money well spent.

[Dinner]

I responded to other people's posts.

[PLATO]

Wasn't calling you out. It was a great threadjack though.

[PLATO]

Evaluating the first week of the offensive I see several things by looking at the maps and reading the somewhat limited reports:

1.) The majority of Ukraine's liberated territory seems to be coming at noticeable bulges in Russian lines. This makes sense as they would have multiple attack axis.
2.) One notable exception to the above is north of Tokmak. Tokmak is an immensely strategic location as it is the East West link for both major highway and rail junctions. It also seems to have some of the most heavily fortified positions. It will be very difficult to penetrate. The advances north of it are there but they are very small and not yet to the real weight of Russian defenses. Taking Tokmak would essentially cut off a large number of Russian troops west of there from resupply.
3.) Russian engineers seem to be highly competent with the defensive structure they have been able to build. From the air, the defenses look pretty good with fortified firing positions and good layering.
4.) Russian artillery seems to have initial firing solutions dialed in pretty well for positions the defenses are designed to funnel Ukrainian forces into. Ukraine also seems to be doing a fair job of avoiding most of them so far.
5.) Russian stand off airpower seems to be deploying more tactically then it has. This is a huge advantage as the Ukrainians have little to nothing to counter it.
6.) Only 3 of the 12 heavy armor brigades the Ukrainians have built up for the offensive have been reported in use so far. This seems to indicate that the Ukrainians are still in a probing phase trying to find a weakness to exploit.

The conclusions that I am drawing from the first week or so is that this will be a very long slog of an offensive. Russian defenses seem to be good and Ukrainians are showing good conservation of force in their probing attacks. It is likely that the Ukrainians will find somewhere along this incredibly long front to achieve a breakthrough. When they do, they will likely have the advantage in maneuver warfare. The question will be if Russian airpower can make the difference. Success or failure? Just to early to tell at this point I think.

[BlackCat]

The conclusions that I am drawing from the first week or so is that this will be a very long slog of an offensive..

I kind of agree, and then not. UA has certainly probed a lot with scouting units and actually captured a lot of ground, but I'm not so sure that they only are supposed to find weak spots - they are also trying to commit russian backup units to the front line and then get locked wherever they end.

Fun part is that UA SAS units apparently has crossed the Dnieper river making havoc where the russians have left after the dam explosion - don't expect the UA to make an major assault that way, but it could easily mess up RA decisions.

[Berzerker]

Great threadjack. Meanwhile in Ukraine people are still dying and a country is fighting for its right to exist.

To try and move it a little bit back on topic...if Ukraine was bribing Biden, then it seems like it was money well spent.

Fighting to support a coup and kill protesters, mostly eastern Ukrainians with Russian ethnicity. Biden gives Ukraine our money and they give him kick backs, it pays well.

[-Jrabbit]

So now you're claiming that Joe Biden is being bribed currently? Today?

[Berzerker]

No, he was bribed as VP... I dont know what grift the Bidens have been up to recently with Joe as Prez. I supposed people are following the $$$ with the recent scandal involving FTX, including Ukraine.

[BeBMan]

Evaluating the first week of the offensive I see several things by looking at the maps and reading the somewhat limited reports:

To add a bit from what I've read:

7.) Russia seems to use electronic warfare more successfully now, for example to jam Ukranian communications. This was always hinted as a Russian strength, but so far hasn't really made a bigger impact. Now it reportedly did in the south, and Ukraine has to take out those systems. How big that issue is in general for the war I dunno.

8.) As for air, also attack helicopters are used more frequently by the Russian army. So with more airstrikes from warplanes and helis while having those continued missile attacks against cities Ukraine maybe facing an issue that it cannot protect everything equally well

Still who'd have thunketh that almost 500 days into this mess Russia has to defend on several sectors of the front...

[BlackCat]

According to a reliable source (APN) the russians sent 20 of these helicopters, but already friday, the ukrainians had shot down two of them - maybe they can last a couple of weeks

Speaking of him - he has made a rather bleak comment on the chances for a peace negotiation

[BeBMan]

Speaking of him - he has made a rather bleak comment on the chances for a peace negotiation

for the vid, not the prediction

[pchang]

Russia is claiming that Ukraine has been largely de-militarised now.

[Geronimo]

Good news. Maybe mission accomplished photo op can commence followed by going home

[Dinner]

Russia is claiming that Ukraine has been largely de-militarised now.

Putin wants to freeze the conflict so he can consolidate his gains, rebuild his military, and then try again in a few years.

[BeBMan]

Seems Russia is using suicide tanks now:

https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1670510694838546436

It doesn't say if there was still a driver or if they turned it into a drone tank

[N35t0r]

With such an old piece of gear, rock on the throttle is much more likely than 'drone'.