Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[giblets]

Ukraine should have avoided war at all costs, by accepting a Russian puppet as their president, because anything else would be seen as leaving the door open for someday joining NATO

[Bereta_Eder]

snip snip

[Geronimo]

There is pragmatism and then there is ideology

when greece declared independence, we pretty much thought we were gonna get slaughtered.

even europe had said that all insurrections are demonic (it was after napoleon) and would not support anything


that's why our national motto is freedom or death (it can be spelled in our blue and white stripes in our flag)


we pretty much thought it was going to be death

why would urkaine accept living under the boot of ANY dictator?

maybe it should. pragmatically


but people aren't always "logical"

Serb, Berz and I guess mobius all maintain that Ukrainians oppose Russia because they are "puppets" of the US and their puppet master forces them to. I don't think the Ukrainians are ready to let their national government be "puppets" of any kind.

[Bereta_Eder]

snip snip

[The Mad Monk]

Well, they should have also declared war on the Soviets, by that logic 😉

Churchill probably wanted that, and it would have been a good move, geopolitically speaking.

[Geronimo]

Also, as I've repeatedly said: just because I can see the logic of a side's action or that it's 'understandable'...

DOESN'T MEAN I ****ING SUPPORT IT!!! 🙄🙄🙄

It simply means I see why they did that.

I don't support Russia, BUT I see why they did what they did.

I firmly believe that Ukraine wouldn't be suffering this terrible war if it backed down from its unrealistic ambition of joining NATO. This war is basically down to toxic pride 👎

Just *why* do you believe this? every year since 2014 Ukraine has been much further from possible NATO membership than it was in any of the years preceding "the coup". Since Russia never invaded during those dangerous years of possible NATO membership why was it obvious he would invade when NATO membership had become an absurd pipe dream for Ukraine?

[Geronimo]

I've explained countless times already about the expansion of NATO, the 2008 red lines etc.

You can deliberately ignore those points if you want, but they are the central basis to my argument.

Putin established a clear red line almost two decades ago, and the West repeatedly ignored it. What happened to Georgia was the obvious and logical conclusion to what would happen to Ukraine.

In 2008 Putin said Russia would never permit Georgian or Ukrainian membership in NATO. So what? How does that possibly explain the special military operation? Ukraine and Georgia were both much further from NATO membership throughout every year after 2014 than they were in 2008. Your next point suggests you should already understand this.

Indeed there is a critical flaw to joining NATO, which is that a nation cannot if it does not have territorial integrity.

So the obvious short circuit is to disrupt that integrity - literally inviting invasion to prevent joining!

**** me, are you that stupid not to see that obvious correlation!?

It's not just Georgia, but also Moldova and Transdinistria! There's real, ongoing history here. It shouldn't come as a surprise!

Putin couldn't have telegraphed more what was going to happen if he tried!

You're saying that it was obvious that Putin was going to invade Ukraine because just before the special military operation he recognized that he would need to invade Ukraine so that it wouldn't have territorial integrity and therefore would no longer be a potential candidate to join NATO? News flash. Putin already occupied (and claimed) all of Crimea. How in the hell could Ukraine have had territorial integrity just before the special military operation?? Did he reason they were about to sign away Crimea? nobody has said that. is that your reasoning? explain Mobius.

Russia tried to join NATO...

Re NK: you're embarrassing yourself by resorting to childish non sequiturs 🙄

Russia did not "try" to join NATO. Russia never officially announced interest in joining NATO unlike every other member that has ever joined NATO. West Germany might have been the most ambivalent before joining of any member and even they made their declaration of intent much clearer than Putin's Russia. Putin only casually, verbally asked if Russia might join NATO in a conversation with Clinton to which Clinton replied "why not?". Putin later consistently clarified in various conversation that Russia's path to NATO membership should consider its unique security concerns and strategic interests. Russia never took a single official step to join NATO.

[BeBMan]

I firmly believe that Ukraine wouldn't be suffering this terrible war if it backed down from its unrealistic ambition of joining NATO. This war is basically down to toxic pride 👎

"You guys add nothing substantial!"

"I firmly believe..."

[MOBIUS]

Also, as I've repeatedly said: just because I can see the logic of a side's action or that it's 'understandable'...

DOESN'T MEAN I ****ING SUPPORT IT!!! 🙄🙄🙄

It simply means I see why they did that.

I don't support Russia, BUT I see why they did what they did.

I firmly believe that Ukraine wouldn't be suffering this terrible war if it backed down from its unrealistic ambition of joining NATO. This war is basically down to toxic pride 👎

[MOBIUS]

stop being coy, answer us or drop it. immediately prior and during the "Prague Spring" Czechoslavakia never proposed any new relationship or status change to either warsaw pact or NATO *except* for a Czechoslovakian proposal by Alexander Dubček (as part of the raft of inflammatory and radical "socialism with a human face" proposals) to consider converting Czechoslovakia into a neutral state.in the future. The Warsaw pact singled that out for strong condemnation and repeatedly cited that proposal when justifying the subsequent invasion which Czechoslovakia didn't militarily resist.

Are you seriously proposing that absent the proposal to become neutral the warsaw pact would have stayed out and let "socialism with a human face" proceed? Are you seriously proposing that this history reinforces your assertion that if only Ukraine had officially embraced neutrality that Putin would not have invaded? Just tell us what exactly it is we might read in the history books that will back up any of your assertions.

I answered. You're choosing to ignore.

Hungary was an insurrection that was put down.

I guess in '68 they didn't want to get caught with their pants down and acted harshly. Not all Warsaw Pact members agreed. It actually meant Albania splitting away.

Was Albania punished and invaded? No.

Again stop trying to put words into my mouth. My positions are crystal clear and you're choosing to deliberately ignore them.

Stop embarrassing yourself

[MOBIUS]

Then explain what the **** your points are (other than 'read Wikipedia', which is not explaining your point), because absent some pretty wild leaps of logic, they don't make a lot of sense.

Let's start with an easy one: how was the West cornering Putin when they bent over backwards and turned a blind eye in order to foment trade and having good relations? (Should we mention the fact that you criticize the West for not doing enough enough about Chechnya and Georgia)? Russia was even welcome to join NATO.

Is the world also cornering Kim Jong Un by allowing South Korea to have an arms industry and trading with them, and would be responsible if Kim decided to shell Seoul?

I've explained countless times already about the expansion of NATO, the 2008 red lines etc.

You can deliberately ignore those points if you want, but they are the central basis to my argument.

Putin established a clear red line almost two decades ago, and the West repeatedly ignored it. What happened to Georgia was the obvious and logical conclusion to what would happen to Ukraine.

Indeed there is a critical flaw to joining NATO, which is that a nation cannot if it does not have territorial integrity.

So the obvious short circuit is to disrupt that integrity - literally inviting invasion to prevent joining!

**** me, are you that stupid not to see that obvious correlation!?

It's not just Georgia, but also Moldova and Transdinistria! There's real, ongoing history here. It shouldn't come as a surprise!

Putin couldn't have telegraphed more what was going to happen if he tried!

Russia tried to join NATO...

Re NK: you're embarrassing yourself by resorting to childish non sequiturs 🙄

[Geronimo]

Are you all thick? Rhetorical question, I know...🙄

It's a clear event, look it up you morons...

stop being coy, answer us or drop it. immediately prior and during the "Prague Spring" Czechoslavakia never proposed any new relationship or status change to either warsaw pact or NATO *except* for a Czechoslovakian proposal by Alexander Dubček (as part of the raft of inflammatory and radical "socialism with a human face" proposals) to consider converting Czechoslovakia into a neutral state.in the future. The Warsaw pact singled that out for strong condemnation and repeatedly cited that proposal when justifying the subsequent invasion which Czechoslovakia didn't militarily resist.

Are you seriously proposing that absent the proposal to become neutral the warsaw pact would have stayed out and let "socialism with a human face" proceed? Are you seriously proposing that this history reinforces your assertion that if only Ukraine had officially embraced neutrality that Putin would not have invaded? Just tell us what exactly it is we might read in the history books that will back up any of your assertions.

[N35t0r]

Then explain what the **** your points are (other than 'read Wikipedia', which is not explaining your point), because absent some pretty wild leaps of logic, they don't make a lot of sense.

Let's start with an easy one: how was the West cornering Putin when they bent over backwards and turned a blind eye in order to foment trade and having good relations? (Should we mention the fact that you criticize the West for not doing enough enough about Chechnya and Georgia)? Russia was even welcome to join NATO.

Is the world also cornering Kim Jong Un by allowing South Korea to have an arms industry and trading with them, and would be responsible if Kim decided to shell Seoul?

[MOBIUS]

Just to be clear, this 'corner' that Putin was put into, was not being free to recreate the Russian empire? Or do you have an actually valid point?

No to your first question.

Yes to your second question.

[MOBIUS]

So your counterargument about why Ukraine should have tried to remain neutral (even though Moscow hardly lets countries under their own thumb go if they can help it) is that it was fine when the Soviets invaded Czechoslovakia because they had invaded Hungary ten years prior? And that's this somehow shouldn't further motivate countries trying to get themselves off Moscow's yoke to try and join the only alliance that had a proven track record of allowing exactly this?

Wait, maybe your mean that rather than trying to democratically steer their own country towards where the people wanted it to go, Ukraine should have gotten an iron-fisted dictator who regressed personal rights and impoverished the country, and then they might have gotten a bit of leeway?

No