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Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

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  • tough spot for putin. no easy way out and to save face.

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    • Slightly off topic, but could we consider Russia to be a failed state?
      “It is no use trying to 'see through' first principles. If you see through everything, then everything is transparent. But a wholly transparent world is an invisible world. To 'see through' all things is the same as not to see.”

      ― C.S. Lewis, The Abolition of Man

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      • Originally posted by pchang View Post
        Slightly off topic, but could we consider Russia to be a failed state?
        from a military point of view. yes indeed. but, putin and his 'government' are still in control. so, not a failed state.

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        • Putin put a new general in charge of the war I read. The prev one was winning too much.
          Blah

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          • Originally posted by pchang View Post
            Slightly off topic, but could we consider Russia to be a failed state?
            not even close at this point. If it was, most states in the world would have had failed state status in living memory. They may be opening a door that will lead them there however.

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            • Looking at what Wiki has to say, Russia would be neither a failed state or even a fragile state at this time. It is possible that if Putin loses power it could descend into one if the succession is heavily contested.

              https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Failed...ate%20collapse).

              As an interesting note, I heard on the BBC this morning that the Wagner group now has over 50,000 soldiers. Yevgeny Prigozhin could cause some major turmoil if he decided to try and take power himself.

              To me the real question is if Russia does descend into a failed state, then what happens to the Nukes?
              "I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and you disagree with this administration somehow you're not patriotic. We should stand up and say we are Americans and we have a right to debate and disagree with any administration." - Hillary Clinton, 2003

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              • They go on auction to the highest bidder?
                “It is no use trying to 'see through' first principles. If you see through everything, then everything is transparent. But a wholly transparent world is an invisible world. To 'see through' all things is the same as not to see.”

                ― C.S. Lewis, The Abolition of Man

                Comment


                • Originally posted by pchang View Post
                  They go on auction to the highest bidder?
                  I wouldn't worry too much about it. North Korea and Iran are friendly destinations for Russia's nukes if things got too chaotic.

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                  • when will ukraine conquer russsia. i think we can all agree (even if you dont like MWHC)... it's never. russia has failed. the real question is... can russia make it look better (even a little) than it is now?

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                    • how do you defend against this? mind you - these pics are full day light... it's almost impossible to see the drone above you when the sun is above the drone. you can see the drone drop in pic 2. drone was about 350 feet up in this case.

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                      • Originally posted by My Wife Hates CIV View Post
                        how do you defend against this? mind you - these pics are full day light... it's almost impossible to see the drone above you when the sun is above the drone. you can see the drone drop in pic 2. drone was about 350 feet up in this case.
                        I assume only with a shelter/roof that is IR proof,
                        so the drone / its operator isn't able to discover the IR outlines of the 5 soldiers from above
                        Tamsin (Lost Girl): "I am the Harbinger of Death. I arrive on winds of blessed air. Air that you no longer deserve."
                        Tamsin (Lost Girl): "He has fallen in battle and I must take him to the Einherjar in Valhalla"

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                        • those 'five' troops would then be locked down in that shelter with a roof. so in the end success as the drone has pretty much done its job.

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                          • Originally posted by My Wife Hates CIV View Post
                            how do you defend against this? mind you - these pics are full day light... it's almost impossible to see the drone above you when the sun is above the drone. you can see the drone drop in pic 2. drone was about 350 feet up in this case.
                            Sucks to be them. They should have fled to Georgia. Killing the killers. Go Ukraine.
                            "I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and you disagree with this administration somehow you're not patriotic. We should stand up and say we are Americans and we have a right to debate and disagree with any administration." - Hillary Clinton, 2003

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by pchang View Post
                              They go on auction to the highest bidder?
                              Their only use would be as a dirty bomb. Which I guess is bad, as it makes them more affordable.
                              One day Canada will rule the world, and then we'll all be sorry.

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                              • Originally posted by Geronimo View Post

                                IIRC, zero. they desire instant Russian victory. The overwhelming majority would also settle for control of the 4 oblasts and peace. 10s of millions would accept peace at the current lines of control. A couple million would accept peace with Russia having less than that.


                                My question is what happens if there is an outbreak of peace (along any given border line). Who will enforce the peace? What's to stop Russia having another go in a few years?

                                Seems to my crude analysis any peace deal necessitates Ukraine being admitted to NATO as a deterrent to future Russian aggression. That's not going to be acceptable to Russia. So.... how do reach a peace settlement.
                                One day Canada will rule the world, and then we'll all be sorry.

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                                • Uncle Sparky
                                  Uncle Sparky commented
                                  Editing a comment
                                  Russia only liberates those who want to be liberated. Look at Georgia. Russia helped liberate Abkhazia in '93, but waited to liberate South Ossetia.
                                  Crimea wanted to be liberated first, then eastern Ukraine. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Finland will need to wait their turns!
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