Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[BlackCat]

This is kind of funny (1:26+) but generally pretty sad :

[Dauphin]

The problem dinner, is that NATO wasn't actually ever forced out of Afghanistan. Afghanistan was abandoned as politically irrelevant and due to absurd wishful thinking about the capabilities of the anti-taliban Afghani government.

How about the 1980s?

[Geronimo]

How about the 1980s?

I don't think the soviets were forced out either if that's what you're asking. I think Afghanistan is just a crappy prize. I think Ukraine will be seen as politically and geopolitically suicidal for Russia to relinquish if Ukraine as an independent state is successfully defeated.

[PLATO]

Not sure that the a sanctioned Russian economy could maintain control over a contested Ukraine...assuming they could take it and that is a huge assumption at this point. I don't see a path to Russian victory here short of full mobilization and a waning commitment from the West. Russia's strategy now appears to make Ukrainian resistance so costly that they will arrive at the peace table ready to concede land for peace. This might have worked if the Russians hadn't been committing wide scale war crimes on the Ukrainian people. Now that they have shown the cost of occupation to the Ukrainians, then Ukraine is likely to keep fighting as long as the West will keep supplying it...and Russia needs to realize that the West's ability to keep the Arms flowing is greater than Russia's ability to produce it's own Arms.

At this point, the Russian need to save face will only result in the further degradation of the Russian military, economy, and international standing.

[Geronimo]

Not sure that the a sanctioned Russian economy could maintain control over a contested Ukraine...assuming they could take it and that is a huge assumption at this point. I don't see a path to Russian victory here short of full mobilization and a waning commitment from the West. Russia's strategy now appears to make Ukrainian resistance so costly that they will arrive at the peace table ready to concede land for peace. This might have worked if the Russians hadn't been committing wide scale war crimes on the Ukrainian people. Now that they have shown the cost of occupation to the Ukrainians, then Ukraine is likely to keep fighting as long as the West will keep supplying it...and Russia needs to realize that the West's ability to keep the Arms flowing is greater than Russia's ability to produce it's own Arms.

At this point, the Russian need to save face will only result in the further degradation of the Russian military, economy, and international standing.

Speaking of the Russian economy and Russian international standing a major pillar for both that Russia has apparently hoped to rely upon has been its "support" in countries for which it is the primary arms supplier while arms exports also generate a majority of its manufactured finish goods export revenue. This "support" has almost entirely taken the form of these arms importing countries (usually) refraining from jumping on the anti-special operation bandwagon in international forums and refraining from participating in sanctions efforts.

For most the time period since the beginning of the special operation in Ukraine this has appeared to be the case, apart from a couple of conservatively written general assembly resolutions. It now appears, however, that owning to Russia's dramatically reduced arms export capacity (it's all ear marked for domestic consumption now) as well perhaps as to a large hit to the quality reputation of these arms, these fair weather "friends" of Russia are beginning to peel away.

https://www.news24.com/news24/africa...he-us-20221221

The announced choice of Angola to ostentatiously pivot from Russian arms to presumably less suitable (too premium priced) United States Arms exports suggests to me that the announcement is as much about further underlining a lack of support for Russia as it is about any perceived practical benefits of US arms.

[Geronimo]

sorry about my punctuation fix converting my post into potential spam

[N35t0r]

Yeah, India had sent them some T-90 for modernization and there were some export-version T-90s seen in combat. Now it might just be a coincidence (some other export version T-90 taken out of storage), but with the sanctions Russia is still taking longer to do the work, I can't imagine India is particularly pleased.

[PLATO]

Yeah, India had sent them some T-90 for modernization and there were some export-version T-90s seen in combat. Now it might just be a coincidence (some other export version T-90 taken out of storage), but with the sanctions Russia is still taking longer to do the work, I can't imagine India is particularly pleased.

I imagine the Chinese are pleased. The whole Russia/India-Russia/China triangle is very interesting and one I would imagine the West really wants to exploit.

[Dinner]

The T-90 is just an updated T-72. Russia changed the numbers to make it seem like it wasn't the same old piece of **** it always has been.

[Dinner]

https://youtu.be/4Q83AIJCGaQ

[Geronimo]

I had to dig out this gem from May published in India.

http://www.frontierindia.com/why-are-u-s-weapons-failing-in-ukraine/

I am sure back then it was considered prudent to regard Russian originating reports as equally credible to western reports. Judging from their more recent articles, that's no longer the case.

[PLATO]

I had to dig out this gem from May published in India.

http://www.frontierindia.com/why-are-u-s-weapons-failing-in-ukraine/

I am sure back then it was considered prudent to regard Russian originating reports as equally credible to western reports. Judging from their more recent articles, that's no longer the case.

THAT is a masterwork in disinformation. Kudos to the author for a well done lie. I bet he got a raise.

[N35t0r]

It's also was never 'prudent to regard Russian originating reports as equally credible to western reports'. Russia has a history of lying and obfuscation, and the media there has been heavily stepped upon by the government, increasingly so the past decade.
In the west you have a much wider range of news and subject matter experts, so of course care needs to be taken, but I would put several western sources (such as the institute for the study of war, or Perun) as much more credible than Russian sources.

[My Wife Hates CIV]

i think the question now is how many are left in russia who want this war to continue?

[Geronimo]

i think the question now is how many are left in russia who want this war to continue?

IIRC, zero. they desire instant Russian victory. The overwhelming majority would also settle for control of the 4 oblasts and peace. 10s of millions would accept peace at the current lines of control. A couple million would accept peace with Russia having less than that.