Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Ming]

Then why didn't he bring a bigger army?

He thought it was enough... His generals told him that they would roll over and play dead.
I guess they never thought that the Ukrainians would defend THEIR COUNTRY from an invading force.

[Thoth]

It was surprising and shocking that the Ukraineians didn't welcome the Russians with open arms. It's almost as if they remember the Holodomor.

[Ming]

Yeah... kind of defeats the Russian narrative that Ukrainians were wishing for Russian rule.
And all the Russians did were rape and kill the people they claimed they were saving.
But many conservatives are still pushing how Russia is in the right on this.

[giblets]

Then why didn't he bring a bigger army?

No idea, but he clearly made a move for Kiev at the beginning.

[Berzerker]

and he clearly withdrew following peace talks with Zelensky

Boris showed up to stop peace so Russia had to mobilize a larger force

[N35t0r]

Assumes facts not in evidence

[Berzerker]

fact: peace talks preceded the withdrawal and the withdrawal preceded Boris

[N35t0r]

Fact: Boris' visit preceded my daughter's fever, that must mean Boris is responsible for it.

Post hoc ergo propter hoc is a logical fallacy.

If the withdrawal from Kiev was at all related to the peace talks, the Russians wouldn't have also kept advancing in the south and east, and if the Russian's peace offer was at all genuine, they wouldn't have been murdering Ukrainian civilians.

[Berzerker]

It was surprising and shocking that the Ukraineians didn't welcome the Russians with open arms. It's almost as if they remember the Holodomor.

The people of the Donbas were attacked by a Nazi army sent by Kiev and Washington so they were already at war when Russian soldiers showed up

[BeBMan]

Meduza revealed that Putin armed the Nazis. And just recently Reuters found out that he also gave them roles in his presidential apparatus.

[Berzerker]

arming Nazis sure looks popular

[Berzerker]

https://youtu.be/1jq2w0cNp5U

Piers Morgan v Jackson Hinkle on Ukraine

this message brought to you by Jimmy Dore

[Berzerker]

https://youtu.be/UTXqwv9Blp0

Glenn Greenwald on the US ousting the Pakistani prime minister for remaining neutral on the war

we told them to no confidence the guy and they did

its good to be the king

[BeBMan]

Meduza revealed that Putin armed the Nazis. And just recently Reuters found out that he also gave them roles in his presidential apparatus.

[Berzerker]

I'm glad we're not arming them too

[BlackCat]

APN dissecting some guy called Michael Kofman's views on Bakhmut

[BlackCat]

[Berzerker]

https://en.thebell.io/russia-is-prep...or-a-long-war/

Proof that war is great for GDP

The sanctions led to more domestic investment because Russians (oligarchs) were at risk of losing assets abroad

[BeBMan]

Meduza revealed that Putin armed the Nazis. And just recently Reuters found out that he also gave them roles in his presidential apparatus.

[N35t0r]

I find Russian economic 'news' really funny. I find a lot of similarities with Argentina in the 2010-2015 period.

[Geronimo]

I find Russian economic 'news' really funny. I find a lot of similarities with Argentina in the 2010-2015 period.

Could you elaborate further? I did 30 seconds of homework (made bing AI write a report) and didn't see the strong parallels tbh:


- Growth: Argentina's economy grew by an average of 3.2 percent per year over 2010 to 2015, while Russia's economy is expected to grow by an average of 2.4 percent per year over 2021 to 2023¹². However, both countries experienced significant volatility in their growth rates, due to various external and internal shocks, such as commodity price fluctuations, exchange rate movements, political instability, and COVID-19 pandemic. Argentina's growth reached a peak of 10.1 percent in 2010 and a trough of -2.6 percent in 2014, while Russia's growth reached a peak of 4.3 percent in 2021 and a trough of -3.1 percent in 2020¹².
- Inflation: Argentina's inflation rose steadily over 2010 to 2015, reaching a high of 26.9 percent in 2015³. This was mainly due to expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, exchange rate depreciation, and price controls. Russia's inflation also increased over 2021 to present, reaching a high of 8.6 percent in November 2021⁴. This was mainly due to supply-side shocks, rising food and energy prices, and ruble depreciation. Both countries adopted inflation-targeting regimes and raised their policy interest rates to curb inflationary pressures⁵⁶.
- Trade: Argentina's trade balance deteriorated over 2010 to 2015, turning from a surplus of $12.1 billion in 2010 to a deficit of $3.4 billion in 2015⁷. This was mainly due to weak export performance, driven by lower commodity prices, export taxes, and trade barriers. Russia's trade balance improved over 2021 to present, increasing from a surplus of $115.9 billion in 2020 to an estimated surplus of $182.7 billion in 2021⁸. This was mainly due to strong export performance, driven by higher oil and gas prices, as well as import substitution policies.
- Fiscal balance: Argentina's fiscal balance worsened over 2010 to 2015, turning from a deficit of $2 billion in 2010 to a deficit of $32.6 billion in 2015⁹. This was mainly due to rising public spending on subsidies, pensions, and social programs, as well as lower tax revenues. Russia's fiscal balance also worsened over 2021 to present, turning from a surplus of $39.6 billion in 2019 to a deficit of $17.8 billion in 2020[^10^]. This was mainly due to lower oil revenues, higher spending on health care and social support, and tax relief measures.

(1) Economy of Argentina - Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Argentina.
(2) Argentina GDP 1962-2023 | MacroTrends. https://www.macrotrends.net/countrie...mestic-product.
(3) Argentina Overview: Development news, research, data | World Bank. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/argentina/overview.
(4) Argentina’s economic crisis explained in five charts | Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-a...-idUSKCN1LD1S7.
(5) Argentina GDP Growth Rate 2023 Data - 2024 Forecast - TRADING ECONOMICS. https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/gdp-growth.
(6) Russia Economic Report - World Bank Group. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country...ublication/rer.
(7) Russia Monthly Economic Developments - World Bank Group. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country...c-developments.
(8) Economy of Russia - statistics & facts | Statista. https://www.statista.com/topics/7835/economy-of-russia/.
(9) The Russian economy is headed for collapse - The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/the-russ...ollapse-178605.
(10) Russia GDP 1997-2028 | Statista. https://www.statista.com/statistics/...in-russia/.

[dannubis]

they are lying...

[PLATO]

Urozhaine appears to have been liberated at a substantial cost to the Russians. Russia reinforced Urozhaine in a salient that was about a mile wide and 2 miles long. Ukraine conducted a pincer movement that just about encircled them. There is some pretty amazing video out there of Russian troops literally fleeing down the road on foot to the next village south while being pummeled by Ukrainian artillery (including cluster munitions) in broad daylight. This is a significant defeat for the Russians as troop losses were undoubtedly high. This puts the Ukrainians less than 4 miles from Staromlynivka. There is only ONE line of defense in that area for the Russians and it is about a mile or two south of Staromlynivka. Beyond that is an enormous amount of room for heavy armor operations with options to press Mariupol or Melitopol. In short, the Ukrainians are about 5 miles away from breaking through the Russian defensive lines and putting all the Russian forces west of there in danger of being cut off..

It will probably take the Ukrainians a few weeks to work through the minefields but it is notable that Russia committed reserve units to Urozhaine and they definitely suffered high casualties. The question now is how well the Russians can regroup on the defensive line south of Staromlynivka and what resources they will put into defending Stamlynivka itself. This thrust has some real possibilities and the next few weeks will be very telling. This looks like the best chance for a real breakthrough. We will see......

[N35t0r]

Ukraine is also apparently stepping up their raids across the lower Dnieper, with which they are apparently having a lot of success since the Russians appear to have stripped the region after the dam blew up. Now the Russians are forced to send more reinforcements into the area or risk a threat to their supply lines.