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Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

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  • Originally posted by -Jrabbit View Post
    Doubtful. Putin is incapable of admitting defeat.
    You're probably right but the point of this somewhat elaborate misdirection would be that Putin wouldn't have to admit defeat just admit having been betrayed by an ambitious Shoigu.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Geronimo View Post

      You constantly assert they "shelled civillians" for 8 years. Wth does that even mean Berz? Does that mean they wanted the civilians to die? If so given how much better Russia has proven to be at shelling civilians in one year than Ukraine was in eight, it's still obvious sending more arms to the Ukrainian side is the right move if we don't like civilians to die.

      But really, if your BS about "civilians shelled" for 8 years were anything close to true, the most heavily shelled areas wouldn't be airports, farms and rural villages. Instead Donetsk and Luhansk would look like Mariupol.

      Actions speak louder than propaganda Berz.
      I am even more confused about the we shelling civilians part.

      JM
      Jon Miller-
      I AM.CANADIAN
      GENERATION 35: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Jon Miller View Post

        I am even more confused about the we shelling civilians part.

        JM
        Nobody can blame you that. For reasons only Russian stooges would attempt to explain, they believe that Azov was controlled by the US government which directed Azov to "shell the civilians" in the Donbas because "the civilians in the Donbas", "opposed the coup". Supposedly the US government spent 8 years trying to kill civilians in the Donbas by using Azov to continually shell the civilians until January 2022 when the US government had Azov dramatically increase the shelling forcing Russia which had been very busy getting hundreds of thousands of troops and equipment all around Ukraine for an invasion to suddenly respond by invading just after they finished deploying everything.

        So you see..."we" were shelling the civilians for 8 years

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Geronimo View Post

          You're probably right but the point of this somewhat elaborate misdirection would be that Putin wouldn't have to admit defeat just admit having been betrayed by an ambitious Shoigu.
          Russia still occupies a large part of Ukraine. Putin could claim victory, offer to withdraw to Feb 24 boundaries, say "Mission Accomplished", arrest Shoigu, and dare the world to support Ukraine attacking beyond the Feb 24 boundary. Essentially re-freezing the conflict and Russia maintaining Crimea and the industrial heartland of the Donbas. Ukraine would then have some decisions to make as would its supporters.

          My guess at this point is that Ukraine has had enough of Russian occupation and would continue the fight. That could depend on the West's attitude toward continuing the fight. Hard to tell....
          "I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and you disagree with this administration somehow you're not patriotic. We should stand up and say we are Americans and we have a right to debate and disagree with any administration." - Hillary Clinton, 2003

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Geronimo View Post

            You constantly assert they "shelled civillians" for 8 years. Wth does that even mean Berz? Does that mean they wanted the civilians to die? If so given how much better Russia has proven to be at shelling civilians in one year than Ukraine was in eight, it's still obvious sending more arms to the Ukrainian side is the right move if we don't like civilians to die.

            But really, if your BS about "civilians shelled" for 8 years were anything close to true, the most heavily shelled areas wouldn't be airports, farms and rural villages. Instead Donetsk and Luhansk would look like Mariupol.

            Actions speak louder than propaganda Berz.
            I was responding to someone using the term 'shelling civilians'. I think they wanted civilians protesting their coup to die and yes, those are/were civilian areas. The civilians eventually became 'separatists' or mostly got out of the way. Mariupol was Azov's strong hold. How many civilians have been killed by Russia since the 2014 war? How many since Feb '22? Looks to me like Russia has been trying to avoid civilians and could have leveled Kiev in Mar '22 but backed away before the USA told Zelensky to violate his own treaty.

            Why didn't the Russian military invade the Donbas before the separatists begged for help and were they attacked by the civilians when they did intervene? Actions do speak louder than propaganda, the people of the Donbas rejected our coup and when we sent a Nazi army to attack them they fought back with Russia's help.

            Comment


            • Prigozhin: 62 years was a pretty good run.
              “It is no use trying to 'see through' first principles. If you see through everything, then everything is transparent. But a wholly transparent world is an invisible world. To 'see through' all things is the same as not to see.”

              ― C.S. Lewis, The Abolition of Man

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Berzerker View Post

                I was responding to someone using the term 'shelling civilians'. I think they wanted civilians protesting their coup to die and yes, those are/were civilian areas. The civilians eventually became 'separatists' or mostly got out of the way. Mariupol was Azov's strong hold. How many civilians have been killed by Russia since the 2014 war? How many since Feb '22? Looks to me like Russia has been trying to avoid civilians and could have leveled Kiev in Mar '22 but backed away before the USA told Zelensky to violate his own treaty.

                Why didn't the Russian military invade the Donbas before the separatists begged for help and were they attacked by the civilians when they did intervene? Actions do speak louder than propaganda, the people of the Donbas rejected our coup and when we sent a Nazi army to attack them they fought back with Russia's help.
                What "treaty", especially one somehow belonging to himself, did Zelensky get told to "violate"?

                ​​​​​​The Russian military certainly did invade the Donbas. Over and over. The only difference in 2022 was that they expanded it to a vast campaign over all Ukraine and they tried to establish occupation forces directly reporting to Moscow.

                The people of the Donbas decisively rejected the Donbas separation, the Separatists and their Russian backers. Every poll, private and public indicated the large majority wanted to remain part of Ukraine...until little green men started running the polls at gunpoint.

                Remember, as well that large areas of the Donbas remained under Ukrainian control. Journalists from everything from BBC to al Jazeera would talk to these people. They weren't being attacked by Azov. They wanted the separatists to leave. They didn't want the Donbas to stop being part of Ukraine.

                ​​​​​​They want to be represented by Zelensky...not Putin.
                Last edited by Geronimo; June 23, 2023, 23:59. Reason: Poll

                Comment


                • Russia investigates Wagner chief for ‘armed mutiny’ after call for attack on military

                  FSB opens criminal case after Yevgeny Prigozhin accuses Russia’s military of rocket attack and says ‘evil’ leadership must be stopped

                  Russia-Ukraine war: latest developments

                  Pjotr Sauer
                  Fri 23 Jun 2023 15.32 EDT
                  Last modified on Fri 23 Jun 2023 21.31 EDT

                  Russia’s FSB security service has opened a criminal case for armed mutiny against Wagner’s Yevgeny Prigozhin after the mercenary chief accused the Russian military of targeting his forces and vowed to “destroy” his rivals.

                  In an extraordinary series of audio clips released late on Friday, Prigozhin claimed that a Russian rocket attack had killed scores of his fighters, vowing to take “revenge” and “stop the evil brought by the military leadership of the country”.

                  “Those who destroyed today our guys, who destroyed tens, tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers will be punished. I’m asking: no one resist,” Prigozhin said.

                  Prigozhin also published a video, which he claims shows the aftermath of the rocket attack on a Wagner camp in Russia’s southern Rostov region.

                  In a virtual declaration of war against his rivals in the Russian military, Prigozhin said he controlled 25,000 fighters and that together “we are going to figure out why the chaos is happening in the country”.

                  “Anyone who wants should join. We need to end this mess,” he said.

                  “Everyone who will try to resist, we will consider them a danger and destroy them immediately, including any checkpoints on our way. And any aviation that we see above our heads,” he added.

                  “I’m asking everyone to remain calm, do not succumb to provocations, and remain in their houses. Ideally, those along our way, do not go outside. After we finished what we started, we will return to the frontline to protect our motherland,” Prigozhin said.

                  The FSB said that Prigozhin’s statements and actions constituted “calls for the start of an armed civil conflict on the territory of the Russian Federation”.

                  Russian state news agency Tass, citing law enforcement agencies, reported that security measures have been strengthened in Moscow, with critical facilities taken under increased protection. Unconfirmed footage also appeared to show military vehicles on the streets of the Russian capital.

                  Amid rumours that columns of Wagner fighters were already on the move, General Sergei Surovikin, the deputy commander of Russia’s Ukraine campaign, released a video address ordering the mercenaries to remain loyal to Putin.

                  “I urge you to stop,” said Surovikin, who was previously understood to be close to Prigozhin. “The enemy is just waiting for the internal political situation to worsen in our country.”

                  Early on Saturday, State-run Channel 1 broke into regular programming for a special news bulletin in which the country’s best-known news anchor, Yekaterina Andreyeva, denied Prigozhin’s claims of a Russian military attack against his fighters and repeated the FSB statement.
                  As Russia’s armed forces fight among themselves, it’s hard to know who’s in control

                  The string of statements marked an unprecedented escalation of infighting among Russia’s elite, which has pitted Prigozhin against defence minister Sergei Shoigu and senior military commanders.

                  The FSB urged Wagner fighters “not to make irreparable mistakes, to stop any forceful actions against the Russian people, not to carry out the criminal and treacherous orders of Prigozhin, and to take measures to detain him”.

                  In a separate statement, prosecutors said that Prigozhin could face between 12 and 20 years in prison.

                  Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, said the Russian president was “aware of the situation unfolding around Prigozhin”.

                  “All necessary measures are being taken,” Russian state media quoted Peskov saying.

                  Early on Saturday, Prigozhin released another voice message in which he claimed without offering any evidence that his forces had left Ukraine and were entering the southern Russian city of Rostov.

                  “Right now we have crossed all the border points... The border guards greeted us and hugged our fighters. Now we are entering Rostov,” he said. “If anyone gets in our way, we will destroy everything... We extend our hand to everyone. We move forward, we are going all the way!”

                  According to several Telegram channels linked to security services, emergency protocols were earlier implemented the city, involving the full mobilisation of the local security services.

                  Pictures published by local media showed armour vehicles appearing on the streets of the city. Baza, a Telegram channel linked to Russian security services, reported that helicopters were seen flying over Rostov.

                  It was not immediately clear what Prigozhin’s objectives were and whether his threats were directed at the Kremlin.

                  “This is not a military coup, this is a march of justice. Our actions do not hinder the armed forces in any way,” the Wagner chief said, adding that the “majority of soldiers” were on his side.

                  The warlord has been arguing with top military officials for months, singling out Shoigu, over battlefield failures.

                  Earlier in the day, Prigozhin accused Moscow’s leadership of lying to the public about the justifications for invading Ukraine, denying Moscow’s claims that Kyiv was planning to launch an offensive on the Russian-controlled territories in eastern Ukraine in February 2022.

                  “The ministry of defence is trying to deceive the public and the president and spin the story that there was insane levels of aggression from the Ukrainian side and that they were going to attack us together with the whole Nato block,” the Wagner head said.

                  Prigozhin also said Russia’s leadership could have avoided the war by negotiating with Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

                  Prigozhin’s tirades on Friday marked a new escalation of his war of words with political rivals, directly contradicting Putin’s rationale for the invasion, and implying it was based on lies in the harshest criticism by any prominent Russian war figure of the decision to attack Ukraine.

                  “What was the war for? The war needed for Shoigu to receive a hero star … The oligarchic clan that rules Russia needed the war,” he said.

                  While the warlord was careful not to directly attack the Russian president, Prigozhin did question several decisions made by Putin, including the Kremlin’s decision to exchange more than 100 captured Azov fighters for Viktor Medvedchuk, a close ally of Putin.

                  Prigozhin also accused the Russian military leadership of lying to the public about the scale of its losses and setbacks in Ukraine.

                  “The Russian army is retreating in all directions and shedding a lot of blood … What they tell us is the deepest deception.”

                  Tatyana Stanovaya, the founder of the political analysis firm R Politik, said that after months of testing the boundaries of his power, Prigozhin appeared to have reached a limit.

                  “The termination of Prigozhin and Wagner is imminent. The only possibility now is absolute obliteration, with the degree of resistance from the Wagner group being the only variable,” she wrote on Telegram.

                  She added that while there was no immediate sign that Vladimir Putin’s hold on power was under threat, the dramatic episode will likely damage his standing.

                  “Many within the elite will now personally fault Putin for letting the situation escalate to such extremes and for his lack of a timely adequate response.”
                  https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ust-be-stopped
                  No, I did not steal that from somebody on Something Awful.

                  Comment


                  • How did Hunter Biden manage to pull this one off?
                    "

                    Comment


                    • Lol, I missed a whole lot of things it seems. Is Wagner a resistance movement now?

                      Off to buy popcorn!
                      Blah

                      Comment


                      • Given what Wagner and the Russian MoD has been saying and doing, Wagner is moving on Moscow right now, with little resistance. It's already beyond a resistance movement.

                        Putin Admits He’s Facing ‘Armed Mutiny’ as Prigozhin Advances on Moscow

                        Josh Fiallo, Nico Hines, Allison Quinn
                        Fri, June 23, 2023 at 2:43 PM PDT·6 min read

                        Vladimir Putin made an extraordinary address to the nation on Saturday morning admitting that he was facing an “armed mutiny” led by former confidante Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenaries.

                        In a five-minute speech that was pre-recorded and then broadcast to a disbelieving nation, the president conceded that the insurrection meant his regime was up against “the toughest battle for its future.”

                        Before the speech played out, Wagner mercenaries were seen descending with no resistance on Rostov-on-Don, Russia’s southern military HQ, which has been co-ordinating the invasion of Ukraine. Once inside the key command center, Prigozhin recorded a message saying it was under his control.

                        This insurrection, which began after Prigozhin claimed his men had been struck by a missile fired by the Russian military, is the clearest threat to Putin’s power since he assumed the presidency in 2000.

                        Putin said he had already issued the order for the military to respond to the organizers of the uprising with “harsh measures.”

                        “All those who deliberately set out on the path of betrayal will suffer inevitable punishment,” he said.

                        And yet, there was no sign of the Russian military standing up to Wagner in defense of their president.

                        Britain’s Defence Intelligence agency said Wagner units were moving north through Vorenezh Oblast in the direction of Moscow. “With very limited evidence of fighting between Wagner and Russian security forces some have likely remained passive, acquiescing to Wagner,” the intel report said. “This represents the most significant challenge to the Russian state in recent times.”

                        For the first time since the splits between Wagner and the Russian Defense Ministry bubbled to the surface, Prigozhin called out Putin directly on Saturday.

                        Responding to the president’s address, he shot down the Kremlin’s authority.

                        “No one is going to turn himself in at the request of the president, the FSB or someone else, no one wants to continue to live in corruption and deceit,” he said. “Those who oppose us are those who have gathered around the scum.”

                        The scale of the fear within Moscow’s elite was captured by the Kremlin’s number one propagandist Vladimir Solovyov who recorded a video of himself racing back to Russia from Ukraine. “I wasn’t expecting to live to see this kind of thing. Our country is at war,” he said.

                        Looking for historical parallels, he cited the revolt which led to Russia’s 1917 revolution and Mussolini’s successful coup d’état, the March on Rome.

                        “Are we really going to allow civil strife now and lose our country?” he asked. “There is nothing more frightening than civil war.”
                        Reuters / TelegramThe Kremlin has caved to Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin and said criminal charges against him for his attempted military coup will be dropped. Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, announced the news Saturday in comments to the TASS news agency, claiming Prigozhin will be leaving the country soon and going to Belarus. He said he had no idea what Prigozhin will do in Belarus. The relocation was apparently part of the deal Prigozhin brokered with Belarus President Alexa


                        Plenty more after the link.​
                        No, I did not steal that from somebody on Something Awful.

                        Comment


                        • BeBMan
                          BeBMan commented
                          Editing a comment
                          For now I'm using the term Special Mutiny Operation

                        • Geronimo
                          Geronimo commented
                          Editing a comment
                          ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​X-D

                        • Thoth
                          Thoth commented
                          Editing a comment
                          "Special Mutiny Operation "

                          Perfect.

                      • Not sure how I missed this on the 21st. Maybe this could even explain the possible implosion of support for Putin that might be unfolding before our eyes?

                        China clearly doesn’t want to be drawn any deeper than it has to into the diplomatic and rhetorical war over Ukraine, which may partly explain its move to aid the US and EU in tightening the sanctions on Russia.


                        China participating in any way in the sanctions must've been seen as a very harsh portent in Kremlin circles of power.

                        Comment


                        • According to some reports, Wagner forces have taken Rostov and are now within 300 miles of Moscow.



                          If you check the Google Maps link, above (assuming it works), you can see how far that means Wagner has been able to move in the past eight-ish hours; pretty damn fast. The little red circles you see are "road closures".
                          No, I did not steal that from somebody on Something Awful.

                          Comment


                          • I guess at some point it will be revealed how it's all organized by Biden. He did it first 1917...
                            Blah

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by BeBMan View Post
                              I guess at some point it will be revealed how it's all organized by Biden. He did it first 1917...
                              Nah, he already did it back in 1905 when he forced the japanese to destroy the russian fleet
                              With or without religion, you would have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things. But for good people to do evil things, that takes religion.

                              Steven Weinberg

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