Prediction Thread: When Will Russia Conquer Ukraine

[N35t0r]

There is definitely a history of disinformation use by both Ukraine and Russia as well as by most of the states that are involved through material contributions to one side of the conflict. We hear both that Russia's situation as an invader and an occupier is desperate as well as that their problems are superficial and their material advantage overwhelming.

I wonder how long it will be before something irrefutable occurs, such as the earlier painful withdrawal from Kiev or the sinking of the Moskva that sheds light on where the disinformation has been lately?

In general the guys at understandingwar.org seem grounded.

Also, regarding 'irrefutable' stuff, I would hazard the sudden spontaneously combusting ammo depots on Russia's side are definitely irrefutable. Or the strikes on the bridges.

[N35t0r]

Source?

As mentioned, I've seen several different reports with varying degrees of predictions.

this is one of the latest, and from a Russian source, so it's not bound to be too pro-ukraine.


They were also juggling artillery between them and the separatist militias a month or so ago, and have been using S-300 and S-400 in ground attack mode. These are not signs that everything is fine.

[Geronimo]

I suppose the cancellation of all of the t-14 orders by the Russian military should have served as a sign that contrary to the apparent confidence demonstrated by boldly invading Ukraine, Russia clearly was experiencing painful armaments procurement issues. There is almost no way the hyped system would be cancelled in the absence of serious performance issues or procurement issues or both.

[N35t0r]

Russia is reportedly buying artillery shells (and other stuff) off of North Korea. That's surely a sign they aren't having any supply issues.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/05/us/politics/russia-north-korea-artillery.html

[BeBMan]

I liked how they said the Ukrainian counter-offensive failed miserably, and then yesterday postponed the so-called referendum in Kherson for security reasons....

[pchang]

I liked how they said the Ukrainian counter-offensive failed miserably, and then yesterday postponed the so-called referendum in Kherson for security reasons....

I’m sure Serb will explain how it is all just part of the plan.

[self biased]

I’m sure Serb will explain how it is all just part of the plan.

I look forward to deleting his posts containing slurs, profanity, and insults.

[Buster Crabbe's Uncle]

Huh. I've only spiked the profanity and slurs - insults would make it 100%.

[My Wife Hates CIV]

64 pages. something tells me this will go 128 pages - and it will still be all fluff. Which is that Russia is.

[BeBMan]

I’m sure Serb will explain how it is all just part of the plan.

Must be the best plan ever...

[Proteus_MST]

Must be the best plan ever...

This is, because Putin is smarter than everyone ... even smarter than Trump

[PLATO]

Putin says "Russia has lost nothing" in this war. Is he the new Baghdad Bob? Only people like Serb would believe that tripe!

[Proteus_MST]

Putin says "Russia has lost nothing" in this war. Is he the new Baghdad Bob? Only people like Serb would believe that tripe!

People like Serb are exactly the people which Putin addresses with speeches like those
I am sure not even Putin is so foolish, to believe that he can convince all too many (educated) western people with his lies

[BeBMan]

Russia is reportedly buying artillery shells (and other stuff) off of North Korea. That's surely a sign they aren't having any supply issues.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/05/u...artillery.html

Maybe Kim is concerned that NK is next after Ukrainian forces made it to Vladivostok ...

[PLATO]

Maybe Kim is concerned that NK is next after Ukrainian forces made it to Vladivostok ...

That would be a hoot to watch!