Prediction Thread: When Will Russia Conquer Ukraine

[Bereta_Eder]

Russians are now raping women killing people giving out humanitarian aid, looting everything that isn't bolted down and chechen crazy islamists boobie trap the bodies of killed humanitarian workers so they are not burried.

[Bereta_Eder]

A good riussian invader is a dead russian invader

[Geronimo]

I think as we enter the second month of this special military operation a lot of observers, especially passionate Ukrainian or Russian sympathizers, need to recalibrate their expectations to reality.

On the one hand I think assertions by Russia that their casualties are very low, even an order of magnitude lower than Ukrainian military casualties are probably not realistic. Not only is there an avalanche of verifiable video and photographic evidence of much higher Russian losses than they are officially acknowledging, but if Ukraine had suffered several times more casualties than these documented Russian casualties, surely Ukraine's frontline would have collapsed at this point. I think it is reasonable to assume that we would have expected Russian casualties to be much lower than Ukrainian casualties and Russia had the material advantage and military competence to ensure this was the case, but this would have required low Russian Casualties to have been assigned a high priority in Strategic planning. I think Putin, for a variety of compelling reasons, decided instead to prioritize speed over and above casualty minimalization. I think like almost everybody else, he was dismissive of the danger posed by Ukrainian defenders and their military responses. Russia is taking heavy casualties now because of terrible strategic leadership, not incompetency or material disadvantages. This reminds me of how in world war 2, the early Nazi success of operation Barbarossa shocked the world as well. However, observers who concluded that the early Nazi success indicated a materially deficient and incompetent Red army proved to be grossly wrong when the harmful top level strategic decisions that enabled the Nazi success did not continue. Eventually Russians will realize that the operation needlessly suffered far higher Russian casualties and equipment losses and that the Ukrainians were able to exploit the early shortcomings to maintain viable defence lines that actually seemed likely to turn the fruits of the emphasis on a speedy campaign into a more prolonged operation.

On the other hand, I think all of the fundamentals are still in place for a decisive Russian defeat of Ukraine, simply by being more conservative in their strategic planning. Ukraine can never establish air parity, let alone air superiority, while Russia has more than enough material available to eventual guarantee air superiority and probably air supremacy and probably already has near air supremacy in Ukraine judging by the constant Ukrainian pleading for establishment of a no-fly zone in Ukraine. While Ukraine is continually losing military assets and the domestic means to replace them it becomes increasingly dependent on foreign military aid from states that are terrified of provoking Russia into attacking them and will have more and more difficulty maintaining the early level of aid and getting it it to Ukrainians on the front lines.

Putin wanted a quick painless war, but abhors a fruitless war outcome that delivers anything other than a defeat of Ukraine with material Russian benefit at Ukraine's expense more than almost anything. Perhaps Putin hoped to see how much he could easily get out of an invasion but failing that he will only settle for an outcome he can identify as Russian "victory" over Ukraine, even if Russia is massively worse off as a result of the war.

Eventually, Ukraine will be obviously defeated. That is the only certainty. Just how defeated is unclear, but any talk of Ukrainian "victory" in this war, is IMHO detached from reality.

[EPW]

Russia seems more and more like a paper tiger as the war goes on. In fact their military seems totally incompetent: just look at the unencrypted communications and massive amounts of abandoned equipment for two obvious examples. I see no evidence that they have the means to reinforce their positions and all of their actions reek of desperation. I agree that air power seems to be their greatest advantage but they suffer appalling losses as well. And those planes are going to become more difficult to maintain as they run out of spare parts that can't easily be replaced. And I believe the reports of mass desertion and outright mutiny occurring in some units. The war is lost.

[PLATO]

On paper this argument makes sense, but so did a swift victory for Russia before the war was launched. This war has come down to a matter of logistics and tactics. The Russian Army is trained for the type of demolish and conquer warfare it has settled into. A change of tactics on the unit level will be very hard as their troops are not well trained and not trained at all for adaptability...the lack of an NCO corp is crippling. On the Ukrainian side, they have been trained by NATO for 8 years to fight just exactly this kind of war against exactly this kind of enemy. The war will come down to logistics...who can keep the resupply flowing. This, IMHO, is why Russia is switching its focus to The Donbass...much shorter supply lines for them and longer for the Ukrainians. I expect that the mission of Russian troops around Kyiv will be to dig in and keep a large part of the Ukrainian Army tied down until Russia can accomplish its goals in The Donbass, but with minimal resupply through Belarus. This would also allow Russia to concentrate its air power in The Donbass region while keeping strategic targets in focus for long range cruise missile attacks. This will keep Ukrainian air defenses tied down as they try to counteract the missile attacks. Once The Donbass area is secure, then Russia will move to their standard frozen conflict mode and really start to negotiate.

[Bereta_Eder]

sorry didn't read that sheet jesus.

just read the last line which is evidently wrong since Ukraine has already won.

Just out of itnerest geronimo, are you one of those "equal distances" guys who blame the rapist and the rape victim?

disgusting

[Geronimo]

sorry didn't read that sheet jesus.

just read the last line which is evidently wrong since Ukraine has already won.

Just out of itnerest geronimo, are you one of those "equal distances" guys who blame the rapist and the rape victim?

disgusting

lol, not even close. I just think that Ukraine will end the war substantially worse off for it than Russia will. Having said that though, if Ukraine ends up in the EU and Russia ends up excluded from trade with the rest of Europe and its' allies then long term I suppose their fortunes will reverse and eventually what is left of Ukraine will be much stronger for the war while Russia will be substantially weaker despite the large territorial concessions to Russia.

Just out of itnerest Berta_Eder, are you one of those "TLDR" guys who responds to a post they couldn't be bothered to read while forming a damning opinion of the author based on the inaccurately recalled tidbit they looked at out of context?

[Bereta_Eder]

it would seem so


but as i read your last message in its entirety, I can safely say I disagree with you. Let's hope luck god science whatever will give us years of life to see that I am right.

The attitude is that russia is a wild card. at the same time ukraine has all the support of the western world barring actually invading russia itself.

this massive breach of trust that russia has brought on itself has teared a new reality at least in europe. things will not de escalale for a looooong time.

[-Jrabbit]

I think it's broadly accepted by now that Putin badly miscalculated this venture in many key ways. The military operation is the most obvious, both strategically and tactically. The sanctions were surely expected, but will be increasingly effective. But I doubt Putin bargained that this would solidify the West - and much of the rest of the world - against him.

Russia is also losing badly - indeed, embarrassingly - on the PR/media/information front. Today's global live media expose the reality of this invasion and wholesale leveling of residential and humanitarian area, among other atrocities. It can't all be hidden.

I do think and hope that Ukraine will survive as a sovereign republic. If so, they will emerge as a rock-solid, well-defended buffer between Russia and the rest of Europe - whether they are officially a NATO member or not. The schism of hatred Putin has created in Ukraine is that deep and irrevocable.

[Proteus_MST]

Full up on patriotism but a little short on brain power.

with other words, the ideal russian citizen in the eyes of Putin

[N35t0r]

All the really intelligent ones already left the country.

[BeBMan]

Eventually, Ukraine will be obviously defeated. That is the only certainty. Just how defeated is unclear, but any talk of Ukrainian "victory" in this war, is IMHO detached from reality.

Well, at least for a month now there's no clear sign for that, so the outcome is rather open at this point.

But even when Russia turns more Ukrainian cities to ashes and - somehow - manages to "win" militarily at some point it is pretty clear already that this epic blunder is leaving Russia in a worse position than it's been before.

The outside world has seen that Russia's conventional forces can be dealt with successfuly by a - supposedly - much weaker country. Russia is being turned into a pariah on the intl. stage diplomatically, and sanctions will seriously degrade its economy and its potential for future aggression.

Russia's competitors in the West have been united, and are upping their military posture and defence efforts.

Russia may hope to rely even more on China, but there are a number of practical problems in that, and - let's not kid ourselves - Russia is no more than a junior partner to China in this relation.

Russia is also on a course to go more oppressive domestically since Putin and his ilk cannot afford to let lose without losing power, with probably harsh consequences for themselves. Sanctions will have effects here, too, esp. since Putin always presented himself as the one guy who led Russia out of the instability of the 1990ies...

This has written s t r a t e g i c d e f e a t all over it, regardless of the immediate outcome of the fighting in Ukraine.

[Bereta_Eder]

Apart from all the other attrocities now the russian thugs kidnap ukranian children and charge their parents 4.000 euros to return them alive

[pchang]

I guess they aren't getting paid by Russia....

[Geronimo]

But even when Russia turns more Ukrainian cities to ashes and - somehow - manages to "win" militarily at some point it is pretty clear already that this epic blunder is leaving Russia in a worse position than it's been before.

I'm sure any reasonable observer would agree that post war Russia will be worse off. However, if Russia gains territory, most Russians will regard it as a win. Russians seem to have an almost religious devotion to keeping and expanding all territory under Russian control.

The outside world has seen that Russia's conventional forces can be dealt with successfuly by a - supposedly - much weaker country. Russia is being turned into a pariah on the intl. stage diplomatically, and sanctions will seriously degrade its economy and its potential for future aggression.

Russia should be a pariah as a result of this but it is not. Most countries have done nothing to sanction Russia and are enjoying full trade relations with them. Of these non-sanctioning countries most, including huge economies with huge populations, such as PRC and India, have not only refused to verbally condemn the invasion with dirt cheap words but they even carefully avoid breaking Russia's demands to not call it a war or invasion. Russia is not a pariah on the world stage.

Russia's competitors in the West have been united, and are upping their military posture and defence efforts.
Russia may hope to rely even more on China, but there are a number of practical problems in that, and - let's not kid ourselves - Russia is no more than a junior partner to China in this relation.

I agree that Russia has almost united the West against them (with a few notable outliers among them such as Turkey or Israel which have dubious "western" status anyway). Depending on Russian plans, however, pivoting their economy away from Europe and towards China may better suit Putin anyway. There is little that Europe can provide that China cannot. I suspect that Putin may have felt like the junior partner in Europe anyway so the China subservience might not even be apparent to him.

Russia is also on a course to go more oppressive domestically since Putin and his ilk cannot afford to let lose without losing power, with probably harsh consequences for themselves. Sanctions will have effects here, too, esp. since Putin always presented himself as the one guy who led Russia out of the instability of the 1990ies...

This has written s t r a t e g i c d e f e a t all over it, regardless of the immediate outcome of the fighting in Ukraine.

Of course Putin himself will regard all this as a win and while the Russian people may see these outcomes as a loss they will overwhelmingly blame foreigners over Putin for these consequences.

[BeBMan]

Russia should be a pariah as a result of this but it is not. Most countries have done nothing to sanction Russia and are enjoying full trade relations with them.

And yet the ruble went downhill fast, and Russia's markets are closed, or only partially open for some time. Why is it that those "full trade relations" to other countries have not much of an effect in this aspect?

Of these non-sanctioning countries most, including huge economies with huge populations, such as PRC and India, have not only refused to verbally condemn the invasion with dirt cheap words but they even carefully avoid breaking Russia's demands to not call it a war or invasion.

Looking from Russia any bigger country seems to have a "huge" economy. Oh yes, India and esp. China actually have those, but economic weight already in play vs Russia is around half of the world's economy.

A number of countries who may have reason to be critical of the west, and maybe want to keep closer ties to Russia. But many of those have also ties with the west, and if they want to sacrifice these to better support Russia is not certain at all. There's a world of difference between not openly supporting the US, EU or the "West" and actually openly siding with Russia, thereby severing ties with other parts of the world.

Russia is not a pariah on the world stage.

Given that only 4 countries openly - some of them pariah state themselves, like NK - sided with Russia in that GA vote I think pariah is a reasonable description.

I agree that Russia has almost united the West against them (with a few notable outliers among them such as Turkey or Israel which have dubious "western" status anyway). Depending on Russian plans, however, pivoting their economy away from Europe and towards China may better suit Putin anyway. There is little that Europe can provide that China cannot. I suspect that Putin may have felt like the junior partner in Europe anyway so the China subservience might not even be apparent to him.

I'm not an economic expert, but afaik there's no comparable infrastructure ready (like the European network of pipelines for gas from Russia) to India or China. Russia certainly would like to sell (more) oil, gas, and whatnot, but doing it in quantities that replaces the losses from the European business - if it comes to that - will take years, and needs substantial investments. Will they be able to pull it off? I don't know - but it looks like a big gamble to me.

[pchang]

China's Belt and Road program will be used to fund pipeline building fro Russia to China. It already resulted in 1 pipeline and is in the process of funding a 2nd, bigger pipeline. China is seeding Russia with Corporations (a la Civ 4) and will soon turn Russia into a vassal state.

[Proteus_MST]

China's Belt and Road program will be used to fund pipeline building fro Russia to China. It already resulted in 1 pipeline and is in the process of funding a 2nd, bigger pipeline. China is seeding Russia with Corporations (a la Civ 4) and will soon turn Russia into a vassal state.

Very likely ...
but don't tell Putin ...
I think he still lives in the illusion, that Russia is seen as an equal partner to China ...
or even, that Russia is the dominant part in this partnership