I stand with Ukraine

[EPW]

With things not going well for Vlad I've been thinking about the Mike "Clausewitz" Tyson quote that's been going around - "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth".

Things really aren't going well for Russia: https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/sta...31292247134212
Offensives repelled in Kyiv and Kharkov and Russians are open to negotiations. Maybe Ukraine can take Moscow in a few weeks?

[Wezil]

Yeah, I've been watching those videos and that's a lot of wrecked materiel. I'm surprised Serb isn't around to claim they are Ukraine vehicles.

The lack of Russian air superiority seems to be the unseen wild card in all this and taking the cities with ground troops alone may be too much for the Russian public to endure.

Let's cross our fingers and hope Putin declares "victory" and goes home.

[BeBMan]

Yeah, I also wondered about Serb. Maybe he saw the light and has joined a peace demo today

[Wezil]

You think?

[Uncle Sparky]

Kazakhstan will not send troops.

[Geronimo]

Yeah, I've been watching those videos and that's a lot of wrecked materiel. I'm surprised Serb isn't around to claim they are Ukraine vehicles.

The lack of Russian air superiority seems to be the unseen wild card in all this and taking the cities with ground troops alone may be too much for the Russian public to endure.

Let's cross our fingers and hope Putin declares "victory" and goes home.

I don't see how Russia would fail to achieve air superiority in a short time frame. I'm puzzled by claims that they have yet to obtain air superiority even to the point that I doubt the sources for that claim.

[Wezil]

I think the evidence is the slowness of the Russian advance.

Disclaimer - I'm in no way a military expert. My knowledge is video game based.

[N35t0r]

There's been some videos of Ukrainian drones (of Turkish make) ambushing and destroying missile launchers and supply trucks, which would be in the rear of the advance, so it kind of supports the Russians not having air supremacy for sure.

Which is indeed highly strange.

[Uncle Sparky]

What do we know of historical Russian tactics? The massive very slow moving convoy of tanks north of Kiev is probably 15 tanks and 2,500 Ladas with wooden turrets. .

Edit: I've been to Kiev (about 30 years ago). It is in the far north of Ukraine, about a 3 hour drive from the Belarus border (I double checked this). I'll guess most of the 'tanks' are wood, and it's taking that long to carry them to Kiev.

[Wezil]

Russian rouble in free fall and interest rates rise to 20%.

Ouch.

[dannubis]

Let's hope the talks will lead to some kind of agreement so that tzarovich can save face and leave the rest of the world (incl. Ukraine) alone.

[Wezil]

I'm afraid it is just a PR exercise so Russia can claim they tried to negotiate but Ukraine was unreasonable. Hopefully I'm wrong.

[-Jrabbit]

Sadly, you're almost certainly not wrong.

[BeBMan]

From the Guardian's news stream:

Swiss officials have concluded that Russia is unlikely to use its nuclear weapons against the West in a conflict over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, Defence Minister Viola Amherd said on Monday.

The comments came after Switzerland adopted EU sanctions against Russia.
“We are, of course, looking at all scenarios, but our investigations indicate that the likelihood of these nuclear weapons being used is low,” she told a news conference in Bern.

Otoh we are de facto now in a proxy war with Russia, and also in an economic war. Let's hope everyone is coming to their senses asap. But I guess it depends how many lives Vlad is willing to spend over this...

[N35t0r]

Or on how many are willing to spend Vlad's live over this...

[Dinner]

Russia is intentionally using artillery in civilian areas in Kharkiv after being forced to retreat from the city yesterday. It seems to be just indiscriminate bombardment of the city center. Warning: Graphic content for Radio Free Europe including an elderly woman who had both of her feet blown off.

https://youtu.be/HIfOQ2yNfKo

[Bereta_Eder]

Putin said that the countries that sent military aid will be punished.

Maybe when he captures belgium he will make dannubis get in front of the camera and say "I swear to vote for wallon socalists from now on. merci beaucoup".
then all of it would have been worth it


on a serious note russian people unfortunately are blinded in an unfree media environment.

thank god EU banned sputnik I was tired of reading how horseradish can cure coronavirus.

also, both tragic and sad the astonishment of some american channels that that can happen to "white" and "christian" people

[Dinner]

Yeah, I've been watching those videos and that's a lot of wrecked materiel. I'm surprised Serb isn't around to claim they are Ukraine vehicles.

The lack of Russian air superiority seems to be the unseen wild card in all this and taking the cities with ground troops alone may be too much for the Russian public to endure.

Let's cross our fingers and hope Putin declares "victory" and goes home.

The Russians have only committed about 1\3rd of their massed forces and none of their best yet. That said, experts are saying the units which have been forward deployed don't seem to have GPS, effective communications systems between say air and ground forces, nor even the upgraded kit Putin has been claiming he was supplying to the Army after Russia's poor showing in Georgia in 2008. Russia's failure to secure air superiority or even to have enough supply trucks is really puzzling as those are very basic things which the Russian Army seems to be screwing up.

It sounds like Putin wrongly thought Ukrainians would just run away and that the government would simply collapse which obviously has not happened yet. I believe Putin is not honest about the peace talks and is simply playing for time so his supply situation can be fixed. Then he will commit more of his available units and push ahead to surround the large cities and eventually just terror bomb them into dust like he did in Chechnya. This is going to be a long term disaster for Russia as it is going to cripple their economy, result in long term unconventional warfare in Ukraine, and make Putin's regime very unpopular among regular Russians. Grow politically Russia will become so dependent upon China that they will become a very junior and weaker partner to the CCP if not a defacto vassal state. Putin has really left them with no where else to go.

[Dinner]

I think the evidence is the slowness of the Russian advance.

Disclaimer - I'm in no way a military expert. My knowledge is video game based.

On the main four fronts they all seemed to advance 60km a day for the first two days which really is about as fast as you can expect out of armored divisions. Day three and four seem to have been slower due to bottlenecks and supply shortages. Or at least that is what experts are saying on T.V..