Originally posted by Fake Boris
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While it was the case that people who disliked both Clinton and Trump broke for Trump in 2016, which one could suggest was a 'would not voice support for Trump but would vote for him' effect, this time it seems that independents like Biden while still disliking Trump.
Last time there was a 'poll error' of about 3%. That would be the 'afraid to voice support for Trump' although it is within the range from all previous elections. There is also probably a 2-3% electoral college advantage that Trump has. If you combine those, Biden still has a better than 3% lead. Which could evaporate if things get much better and people forget how Trump handled the virus and the protests (Biden only had a 5 or 6% lead in March/April). But in that case, wouldn't the people who were 'afraid to voice support for Trump' or who would vote for Trump while not supporting him, start opening supporting him again?
Bookmakers are generally less sophisticated then the best model builders like 538, which is currently OK for them because the betters are also less sophisticated. However, 538 hasn't yet updated their model for 2020 (they are still building).
JM
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