Who do you tip to win the US presidential election

[Jon Miller]

People are afraid to voice support for Trump aren’t they?
According to bookmakers he’s far from beaten.

I hadn't seen that in 2017-2019. Maybe that is the case the year, but if Trump is governing so poorly that the national mood means that people are afraid to voice support for him, doesn't that suggest that they just won't support him instead?

While it was the case that people who disliked both Clinton and Trump broke for Trump in 2016, which one could suggest was a 'would not voice support for Trump but would vote for him' effect, this time it seems that independents like Biden while still disliking Trump.

Last time there was a 'poll error' of about 3%. That would be the 'afraid to voice support for Trump' although it is within the range from all previous elections. There is also probably a 2-3% electoral college advantage that Trump has. If you combine those, Biden still has a better than 3% lead. Which could evaporate if things get much better and people forget how Trump handled the virus and the protests (Biden only had a 5 or 6% lead in March/April). But in that case, wouldn't the people who were 'afraid to voice support for Trump' or who would vote for Trump while not supporting him, start opening supporting him again?

Bookmakers are generally less sophisticated then the best model builders like 538, which is currently OK for them because the betters are also less sophisticated. However, 538 hasn't yet updated their model for 2020 (they are still building).

JM

[N35t0r]

I find it funny when you guys refer to people in support of worker rights and universal healthcare as 'far left'.

[Ted Striker]

I find it funny when you guys refer to people in support of worker rights and universal healthcare as 'far left'.

From what I understand (not sure where you live), Euros left and right all consider those non-partisan issues and just sort of understood as basic human rights.

Bro, the guy in charge's selling points on why he should be elected are:

1) He can walk down a 5 degree ramp without falling over
2) He can drink a cup of water with one hand

I expect we will see this time period mentioned in the history books among the great plagues and worst leaders of all time.

We're just lucky the Federalist system still works to cushion all of the damage he's caused.

[N35t0r]

From what I understand (not sure where you live), Euros left and right all consider those non-partisan issues and just sort of understood as basic human rights.

Bro, the guy in charge's selling points on why he should be elected are:

1) He can walk down a 5 degree ramp without falling over
2) He can drink a cup of water with one hand

I expect we will see this time period mentioned in the history books among the great plagues and worst leaders of all time.

We're just lucky the Federalist system still works to cushion all of the damage he's caused.

US politics has been this way since waaay before Trump though

[Edit:] Not to play down that the current admin is a massive cluster****, agreed on that count. At least you guys sill have some semblance of separation of powers and federalism still in place.

[Ted Striker]

Yep, I agree on the difference. We are slow to realize that, not having an outside perspective to compare to. Funny how Bernie Sanders was compared to a Bolshevik LOL

[Ted Striker]

Bebro can we borrow her

[giblets]

The Trump-Biden presidential debate (they will only have one) will be a chance to see who is best able drink a glass of water like a functional human being.

[BeBMan]

Bebro can we borrow her

Only if this guy gets Baywatch back on screen for at least 5 new seasons with him in the leading role




Naaaaaaaaaaaaaaah

[Ted Striker]

HAHAHAHAHA

Those curly locks of WINNING

die Starke

[Ted Striker]

Bros there is NO WAY Trump can recover from the bounties against US soldiers in Afghanistan scandal

That is a CORE principle of his base, they worship soldiers

This mother****er is DONE. FINISHED. FIRED.

The absolutely ONLY thing that can save him at this point is fixing the polls

Keep the attacks up and let's finish this POS traitor.

And get your asses out and VOTE.

[Rashiminos]

It means practically nothing. The only questions are whether the Taliban were paid enough to jump in front of US soldiers and whether the Russians learned anything since February 2018. The House made sure we'll stay in Afghanistan for some time to come.

[Dauphin]

What's the Russian motivation here? The achieve nothing in the short game. The Taliban were going to do it anyway probably, so the notion that there are more deaths is rather nullified. So what's the long game?

And why is the WH denial that Trump was never briefed, and not the intelligence is bogus. At face value they are saying that such intelligence exists and is not worth telling the President about? Or are they saying the intelligence exists, but because it is not exactly as reported, they can deny Trump was briefed on "that".

This story doesn't hang together right - large pieces are missing. Let's see what comes out.

[Uncle Sparky]

I don't believe the story. Trump would have found a way to personally collect the bounty if he had known about it. ("We need to increase our foot patrols in Taliban areas without flack jackets. If they see our soldiers in t-shirts, they'll know we don't scare easily.")

[Ted Striker]

The US has been negotiating with the Taliban and stirring **** up to keep them engaged dirties up the negotiation process

It’s in Putin’s best interest to keep US and allies bogged down and

Damn that is like in every 101 negotiation sabotage handbook

also retribution for damaging sanctions

And don’t discount the personalities/egos, grudges and chess board realpolitik going on

There’s all kinds of motivations

[Fake Boris]

Ted Striker may look like he has changed a lot in the last 20 years, but actually he is the same person he has always been. He moved from parroting Afghanistan and Irak to parroting anti-Trump.
Dauphin hits the nail on the head. Hoax compromising Trump with Russia? Been there done that.

[Ted Striker]

Ted Striker may look like he has changed a lot in the last 20 years, but actually he is the same person he has always been. He moved from parroting Afghanistan and Irak to parroting anti-Trump.
Dauphin hits the nail on the head. Hoax compromising Trump with Russia? Been there done that.

Putin is an assassin and bombed his own people to start a war and somehow you think this far fetched

Wake up comrade

[Ted Striker]

Here’s the follow up article from the New York Times

Even Republicans are asking questions

If Trump, Russia Today, and the Taliban are in agreement that it’s a hoax then it’s probably true

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/spies-and-commandos-warned-months-ago-of-russian-bounties-on-us-troops/ar-BB164Uci?li=BBnb7Kz

Dude even Dick Cheney’s kid is asking questions

[BeBMan]

Difficult to say if the bounty thing is credible. It sounds stupid, with highly questionable benefits/results for Russia.

But so was the Skripal thing and a couple others.

[Ted Striker]

3 separate Taliban sources have confirmed the bounties

https://www.businessinsider.com/russ...ces-say-2020-7

If anyone still believes this is far fetched, consider the following:

1) USA regular army officers paid Sunni militias bounties in Iraq to hunt down and kill Al-Qaeda
2) USA intelligence also armed rebels in Afghanistan with anti-air weapons to fight Soviets. I'm sure there were bounties there too, but we may never know.

So this is not some wild theory. All states do this particular behavior, it's just an open secret it's a tool that's commonly used as a proxy weapon for weakening an opponent.

With all the garbage that has happened in the past 20 years, nothing surprises me anymore

For my Russian friends Fake Boris and Serb, I have no problem with Russian people. Your leader does suck but so does Trump. At least Putin is intelligent and capable. Emperor Xi sucks too.

We've all been played and tricked and pwned over the years to do the bidding of a bunch of oligarchs who don't give a **** about the common person, they are just trying to GET PAID.

[Ted Striker]