Brexit divorce deal

[BlackCat]

The U.K. will call the EUs bluff. They will not put up a border check in NI. It just won’t happen.

Paliament won’t approve any payments to the EU either, without a quid pro quo.

These are two bargaining chips that the U.K. can play, and it will be up to the EU to decide if carrot or stick is the way to respond. I don’t think a stick will achieve anything in the current climate.

AFAIK then the negotiations are over at it 's the UK that has to choose between the May deal or no deal. I haven't heard about any carrot/stick situation.

Well, I forgot the last option - a new election that cancels the exit, which of course would be the best, but unlikely since it would cause a lot of pain in the elder generations of the UK population.

[Dinner]

They will take no deal as Parliament has already said they won't agree to the backstop. Now it is a question of if the EU is willing to limit its own damages in order to save its financial bacon or not because no deal means no divorce payment. The EU could easily drop the backstop and then the deal would likely pass and it is certainly in their interest to do so though I still wouldn't agree to anything which places nonBritish courts in charge of British people. Parliament would probably trade that away though.

One thing is certain and that is all of you are going to have to pay a whole lot more if the UK doesn't get a deal good enough to sign (and it doesn't yet).

[BlackCat]

Oerdin, UK is not an indispensable cornerstone of the EU. If they leave it's the UK that will be hurt beyond their worst fantasies. EU without UK will work just fine.

[Dinner]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephenpope/2018/12/15/no-deal-brexit-ahead-unless-brussels-bullies-show-respect-and-reason/#21658f223bf3

A great article. This is going to hurt the EU a lot, I mean really a lot. Yes, it will also hurt the UK but look at what percentage of EU 27 exports goes to the UK vs the other way around. Talk about the EC cutting off its own nose. The UK is rich enough, educated enough, and prosperous enough to survive the shock but there are many in the EU who are not and who will take a big hit. It doesn't have to be this way but the Eurocrats are determined that it must and so they need to be blamed for it.

[BlackCat]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephen.../#21658f223bf3

A great article. This is going to hurt the EU a lot, I mean really a lot. Yes, it will also hurt the UK but look at what percentage of EU 27 exports goes to the UK vs the other way around. Talk about the EC cutting off its own nose. The UK is rich enough, educated enough, and prosperous enough to survive the shock but there are many in the EU who are not and who will take a big hit. It doesn't have to be this way but the Eurocrats are determined that it must and so they need to be blamed for it.

No, that is a piece of pure BS. It's a brexiter that desperately tries to defend a lost cause

[Dinner]

The point is it is entirely avoidable but the EC must stop making demands which the other side simply cannot and will not accept (like the backstop which traps the EU into the customs union forever). Yes, the EU is going to suffer greatly because of Juncker's arrogance and incompetence. That article is very, very factually correct. The numbers are real and cannot be hand waved away.

[BlackCat]

The point is it is entirely avoidable but the EC must stop making demands which the other side simply cannot and will not accept (like the backstop which traps the EU into the customs union forever). Yes, the EU is going to suffer greatly because of Juncker's arrogance and incompetence. That article is very, very factually correct. The numbers are real and cannot be hand waved away.

More BS. if the UK want to leave it's their choice an they must accept the unavoidable terms. The article is totally wrong about the facts unless you are living in a fantasy world.

[ZEE]

Sorry, Black Cat, but Oerdin knows much more about Europe than you do.

[BlackCat]

Sorry, Black Cat, but Oerdin knows much more about Europe than you do.

Sure, Oerdin has magnificent googling skillzz, so I as a EU citiizen probably can't compete with him

[pchang]

Yes. Too bad EU countries do not have the capability to create useful companies such as Google.

[Dinner]

They are about to have many fewer useful capabilities due to their own arrogance and incompetence. It is all avoidable but Junckers is just too much of a piece of **** to do the obviously right thing.

[Dauphin]

AFAIK then the negotiations are over at it 's the UK that has to choose between the May deal or no deal. I haven't heard about any carrot/stick situation.

Well, I forgot the last option - a new election that cancels the exit, which of course would be the best, but unlikely since it would cause a lot of pain in the elder generations of the UK population.

I’m referring to a no deal situation where the Uk pays no dues and puts up no border. If, in the aftermath, the EU wants the Uk to stump up or Ireland to have a hard border, they need to do something - the UK won’t do either unless enticed or coerced.

[pchang]

I think Ireland will be allowed to do what they wish with regards to the border. As for the divorce payment, the EU could sue for it. If they win, then the EU can start the process of seizing UK assets.

[Dauphin]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephen.../#21658f223bf3

A great article. This is going to hurt the EU a lot, I mean really a lot. Yes, it will also hurt the UK but look at what percentage of EU 27 exports goes to the UK vs the other way around. Talk about the EC cutting off its own nose. The UK is rich enough, educated enough, and prosperous enough to survive the shock but there are many in the EU who are not and who will take a big hit. It doesn't have to be this way but the Eurocrats are determined that it must and so they need to be blamed for it.

Trade with the UK accounts for a small percentage of EU GDP. Trade with the EU accounts for a much larger percentage of UK GDP.

The linked analysis completely misses this. That the EU exports more to the UK than vice versa in absolute terms is irrelevant when considering the impact on both. You can drill down by country - Germany will be hardest hit, but some countries just won’t care.

[pchang]

Even by the article numbers, EU will be hurt less than 1/2 the hurt to the UK.

[Proteus_MST]

Trade with the UK accounts for a small percentage of EU GDP. Trade with the EU accounts for a much larger percentage of UK GDP.

The linked analysis completely misses this. That the EU exports more to the UK than vice versa in absolute terms is irrelevant when considering the impact on both. You can drill down by country - Germany will be hardest hit, but some countries just won’t care.

It also will be dependent on industry ...
while some industrries in germany surely will be hit, others will profit.

For the one definitely the financial sector ...
it is to expect that London will lose its appeal as financial powerhouse and lots of banks will move (which surely will hit the UK very hard) ...
with Frankfurt and a few other cities in ther EU strongly profiting.
But also other industries might profit which, at the moment, have a strong competition by goods imported from the UK

[Bereta_Eder]

Ok, I didn't read all that but I think it's safe to conclude that the UK is frecked. I still believe that demanding the parthenon marbles is a nice icing on the cake though. If dinner is for the UK it means it is good for humanity that humanity isn't. And it isn't.