Thread for obviously newsworthy stuff

[Ben Kenobi]

You can't mix and match. 538 has MO,NV as toss-ups, AZ, IN and FL as lean D and TN as lean R. They put ND in the likely R column and MT as likely D.

And this is why their analysis is wrong. AZ, IN, FL, MO, NV, MT are all true tossups. They also drop ND to Likely R, but Heitkamp is down by 10 and MT is within 3. ND at this point is Safe R. Texas is Likely R, not Lean, same with Tennessee.

That means you can do your estimates (using 538 poll aggregate) as 1/1 MO,NV and 2/3 IN,FL,AZ and 1/3 TN. That gives a central value of 3 D/3 R (which is R+1). They also say that 6 D/ 0 R (D +2) is about the same probability is 0 D/ 6 R (R + 4). That is also what we see from 538 analysis.

Subtle, systematic bias across the spectrum is going to greatly distort their results.

By the time you get to R + 5/R + 6 or D + 3/D+4 you are dealing with Likely D/Likely R (like ND, MT, NE, TX, MS, WV, NJ, MN). Those are equal numbers... you could imagine that the distribution is then symmetric. Which it is basically, but R has a longer and higher tail.

It's not symmetric. That's the problem. There's an R+2, +3 bias in favor of R's that is not being reflected in the 538 analysis. If you assume that it ought to be symmetric, it's going to bias your results. Also, they should be running sims, but sims are only as good as the numbers they are giving them.

[rah]

There's also probably a correlation between that and being beaten by your wife.

[Proteus_MST]

Apropos small dicks ... here is another example of one:

https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2018/10/24/18014276/mens-rights-activist-eagle-rock-brewery-lawsuit

[Proteus_MST]

is there some sort of correlation between being a nazi and having a small dick?

Perhaps ... there may also be a correlation between closeness to Nazis and having tiny hands

[spambot]

is there some sort of correlation between being a nazi and having a small dick?

[Broken_Erika]

Family Values!

US white nationalist Richard Spencer's wife says he abused her

The wife of US white nationalist Richard Spencer has accused him of being "physically, verbally and emotionally abusive", US media report.

In papers filing for divorce, Nina Koupriianova said on one occasion in 2011 Mr Spencer dragged her down the stairs, resulting in bruises.

She said that in 2014 he again "attacked" her when she was four-months pregnant.

In comments to the Associated Press, Mr Spencer denied being an abusive person.

Richard Spencer is a figurehead for US far-right groups and popularised the term "alternative right".

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45960094

[Proteus_MST]

A faithful Trumpster doing his work:

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/10/24/18018256/explosive-device-bomb-clinton-obama-soros

Mail bombs were sent to the Obamas, Clintons and George Soros

I guess Donnie will publicly keep silence over it and secretly applaud the bomb builder (and regret that the bombs were detected before they could go off)

[spambot]

Well, if the natives are living on land that happens to be endowed with shiny metals, what are you going to do?

[Proteus_MST]

On another note:
Anyone remembers Brian Kemp, the republican candidate for governeur in Georgia?

That is the one who is accused of voter suppresion because of being especially rigorous towards minorities when it comes to purging voter lists,
(ab)using his position as secretary of state to put 53k voter registrations, most of them from blakc people, on hold
and stopping a bus carrying black seniors from bringing them to the voting booths

Well, audio tapes have turned up where this Brian Kemp said on a recent (closed for press) campaign event,
that it "continues to concern us, especially if everybody uses and exercises their right to vote" ...
and in which he also said that he is concerned about the money, his democratic (black) opponent pumps into initiatives
that are supposed to bring voters to the booths or help them using their rights to vote by mail.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...-rolling-stone

I am sure that Trump likes Kemp, "because of his character" ... and he seems to be the typical political candidate of the Trump era

[Proteus_MST]

Native Americans did help build this nation. You believe in another false narrative.

Well, lots tribes started with peaceful relations with the USA ...
and wee rewarded with later being massacred, or getting deported into impoverished reservations, because white settlers desired their lands ...
be it because of gold, or because of its fertility

No matter what, at this time they never were citizens of he USA, as the naturalization actsthat were passed in the years 1790-1802 explicitely limited the citizenship of the USA to white free people of good character.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natura...on_Act_of_1790

Even black people got their chances to become citizens of the USA earlier, than the native amerindians

[Kidlicious]

So the indians created the US?
That would be new information

Must be very masochist indians, which afterwards left the white man to govern the country
and even wage war against their own tribes and drive them away from their home lands


Addendum:
After reading this article:
https://www.quora.com/Was-America-fo...on-immigration

I have to admit that you have a point.
The founding fathers were not immigrants but hostile invaders ... therefore the USA itself wasn't founded by immigration but by conquest, treachery and violence.
Immigration (in the 19th century) however was the key to making the USA great and turn it into the country it is today

Native Americans did help build this nation. You believe in another false narrative.

[Proteus_MST]

The US was not created by immigrants. That's a false narrative.

So the indians created the US?
That would be new information

Must be very masochist indians, which afterwards left the white man to govern the country
and even wage war against their own tribes and drive them away from their home lands


Addendum:
After reading this article:
https://www.quora.com/Was-America-fo...on-immigration

I have to admit that you have a point.
The founding fathers were not immigrants but hostile invaders ... therefore the USA itself wasn't founded by immigration but by conquest, treachery and violence.
Immigration (in the 19th century) however was the key to making the USA great and turn it into the country it is today

[Kidlicious]

Clearly the Communists are planning to destroy a nation that was created by immigrants by sending more immigrants.

The US was not created by immigrants. That's a false narrative.

[Broken_Erika]

Pence says that the President of Honduras told him that Venezuela is financing the "caravan."

With what? Venezuela has no money!

Anyway
Run For Your Lives!
The socialists are coming! White House sounds alarm at rise of the left

As Democrats score on healthcare, the Council of Economic Advisers raises the spectre of Marx, Sanders and Swedish working mothers making you pay more for your pickup truck

You're all Doomed. Doomed i Say! DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMED!

[spambot]

Clearly the Communists are planning to destroy a nation that was created by immigrants by sending more immigrants.