[civil] "Greece moves closer to eurozone exit after delaying €300m repayment to IMF "

[PLATO]

Thanks COckney. That does shed a different light on things.

Posts like that are why I still come to Poly

[C0ckney]

my pleasure. the way this issue is framed and discussed in the media is a pet peeve of mine because of the false impression it gives people.

[loinburger]

If Greece leaves the EU / euro now would it be less disastrous for the EU / euro than if they'd left it at the beginning of the crisis, or have the loans just delayed the inevitable?

[Hauldren Collider]

I think it's hard to say. The fear was that if Greece left, other troubled economies would follow suit, such as Portugal and Spain. I believe those two countries have stabilized now, though they still have major structural problems--similar to greece, they have labor and economic laws that are holding them down.

[Bereta_Eder]

If Greece leaves the EU / euro now would it be less disastrous for the EU / euro than if they'd left it at the beginning of the crisis, or have the loans just delayed the inevitable?

There are two schools of thought on that one.

A greek departure will inevitably lead to a political and financial contagion that will spell the end of the eurozone. Especially since there is no coneivable way that this (grexit) can be done in an orderly, pre-agreed upon fashion.

The second theory says that a greek departure can be contained. (and it's the wrong one)

It will certaintly be presented as more manageable now because emergency funds have been put in place that were not there in 2010 but the end result will be exactly the same.

[Hauldren Collider]

I can't see the Euro collapsing entirely, it's too useful. Particularly for all the tiny countries in Europe that are using it. For example when Estonia switched to the euro it boosted their trade with Finland a **** ton, iirc.

[C0ckney]

If Greece leaves the EU / euro now would it be less disastrous for the EU / euro than if they'd left it at the beginning of the crisis, or have the loans just delayed the inevitable?

much less so. the banking system is far more secure and there's little risk of contagion. it still wouldn't look good of course and be pretty embarrassing, but it's not the potential disaster that it could have been in 2009. the outlook for greece on the other hand is much worse.

[Bereta_Eder]

Debt is umanagable in lots of countries, even the ones that have been making so called progress (their GDP is growing again) have done so at the cost of massive popular displeasure vis a vis austerity.

Italian PM (basically just giving lip service) said that austerity doesn't work, Podemos are re-writing the political landscape of Spain.

The baltics and especially Latvia have gone through a gruesome program of fiscal correction with little to no objection (fear of russia, and generally fear, does that to a person/people) but southern countries with no apparent source of external pressure to accept austerity are proving less manageable year by year.

[C0ckney]

i agree, the 'solutions' haven't worked and the mainstream politicians seem to offer no solutions except more of the same; people are not happy.

i think that the political wind is changing and new forces are coming to the fore in many places. some of these are anti-EU; we may see a serious anti-EU candidate make the second round of the french presidential election.

it's also leading to the rise of new left wing forces, most excitingly in my opinion popular unity in catalunya.

[Bereta_Eder]

which some media are trying to present as putting a dent on Podemos. Is hilarious because not only their goals are alligned but they have said they will collaborate fully in the political scene.

And here comes another facet of the ongoing negotiation: seeing as greece was the first country to "break the veil" so to say and elect a party that went off the mainstream, the result of the negotiations (which will end on 30th of june) will judge to a large degree how the momentum of these other parties will go from now on.
It will in no way define them, seeing as specifics run by themselves in each indivindual country, but there is going to be an impact for good or worse.

[pchang]

Thanks to leaks, we can see where we really stand

[pchang]

If Greeks just paid the taxes they owed, they would have at least 1 billion extra euros now. Instead, they got their first big tax cheat and let him go after paying only 1.8 million euros http://money.cnn.com/2015/04/22/news...sion-oligarch/

[Bereta_Eder]

And I'm supposed to discuss in a civil fashion with that?

[pchang]

What part of that was a racial epithet?

[Bereta_Eder]

Said businessman (and one of the unholy trinity of "sin" - established media, (ex) political power, finance) owed 2 bil. He got bail for 1.8 bil.
So yes the greek gov runs the risk of losing 0.2 bil.

The fact alone that he was taken in is far more important that your miserable 200 millions and just underscores that the burden of this so called crisis have untill now been unjustilly divisioned.

Still doesn't annule the disasterous program that has been imposed or the continuous burning down of social state in europe.

Now of course, since you called all greeks tax cheats, I think it is only fair to ask you if all chinks eat rice?