The ongoing ISIS massacres

[MrFun]

Then I misunderstood you and I am sorry for that. This is something that affects me deeply on an emotional and religious level. Glad you agree something needs to be done yesterday.

[MrFun]

Since the persecution of Christians actually got WORSE after the toppling of Saddam's regime, it's one more way that we have left things more fucked up than they were before.

[The Mad Monk]

So, should we demonstrate we've learned our lesson, and get behind all the dictators?

[dannubis]

Now that is a spin...

Impressive...

[Sava]

Want us to burn down your White House again?

Not really. But it wouldn't be a huge loss, IMO.

[Kidlicious]

Since the persecution of Christians actually got WORSE after the toppling of Saddam's regime, it's one more way that we have left things more fucked up than they were before.

Sorry we ruined your Black Panther Party.

Edit: Love it how Fun is all for iron fist dictatorship in ME but in the US if a cop shoots a street thug it's time to turn over the flag.

[C0ckney]

Sundry editorials, on the grounds that, while Iraq is roughly divided by ethnic group, the blocs are far from monolithic, there's tons of intermarriage, and everybody's been where they are for umpteen generations.

the breakup of yugoslavia was nothing like the breakup of iraq and the kind of forces involved in the bosnian war (which i imagine is what these authors are referring to) were nothing like those involved in iraq. the comparison seems extremely flimsy.

Actually, it's more "it's hard to fathom how we could make the situation worse than it will be without any intervention."

fair enough. i have more faith in human ingenuity however.

The Iraqi Kurds were in trouble before we intervened; they were losing towns rapidly. Possibly they would have retaken them soon, but possibly not, and likely not before a few dozen more massacres. I don't think we stand to gain by a full-fledged invasion or anything; that would just put us back where we were in '06 or so. I favor blowing up any of their forces that move outside a city and leaving the ground fighting to the locals. Also, I've read widely varying estimates of their strength, but supposedly the Iraqis think they have 50K and counting. If so, they've got to be spending an easy million a week just feeding and housing them, not counting fuel, supplies, basic goods and services for their populace, etc. So I'd advise offering bounties for any desert tribes who rat out an oil-smuggling convoy in time for us to blow it to hell. They're not paying for all that with bank raids; if nothing else, they'll run out of banks. What to do about Syria, I don't know. Probably we'll have to sigh and team up with Assad eventually.

With, of course, the usual proviso that I don't know anything about military ops.

there are a few things here. firstly the sequence of events: ISIS attacked and caused the iraqi army (sometimes without a shot being fired) to flee from various towns and positions, in many places it simply melted away. kurdish forces moved into some of these positions, principally areas with at least some kurds. ISIS attacked some of the new kurdish positions and captured some of them, though many others, such as kirkuk, still remain in kurdish hands.

there are a couple of things to note about this. although the rapid ISIS advance gave the appearance of strength, it actually had far more to with iraqi weakness and the lack of willingness to fight for the moribund iraqi state. secondly the advances against the kurds came mostly in areas where the kurdish forces had only moved into, and exposed their weaknesses when fighting on the plains. ISIS have not attacked the kurds in their mountain strongholds, as they (probably correctly) calculate that they would lose.

secondly, groups like ISIS can support their fighting men very easily, simply by taxing economic activity in areas they control. they have other sources of revenue as well including oil, and apparently "mysterious foreign donors" (often mentioned by the western media, but it's rather unclear who they are referring to). they have plenty of weapons, including many captured from the iraqi army.

it's also worth pointing out that this conflict is not just between ISIS and the iraqi government/kurds. several other groups are involved, from jihadists, to sunni militias to saddam era ba'athists. it may be profitable to try to prise these groups away from ISIS, although this would mean political concessions which the iraqi government is unlikely to welcome.

[Kidlicious]

One thing is for sure, they must all be terminated. All the most ****ed up Islamists are in one place now. We know who they are and we know where they are. Why they made it across the Iraqi border we won't ever know, maybe the Pentagon knows. We have no other choice but to trust that our govt has a plan.

[Elok]

Holding baby so quick question: taxing economic activity based on what, if not oil? I was under the impression that was more or less all the region had to offer. Cut off or even dent the flow, and what do they have, assuming their "donors" don't feel like financing forces to hold half a country indefinitely? Do they have manufacturing, agriculture, or any other broad base for their economy if they can't sell crude anymore?

[C0ckney]

the kind of economic activity that allows people to eat, clothe themselves and keep a roof over their heads. basic things, agriculture, transport, the retail and movement of goods etc.

i have to go out now, but can provide a fuller answer later on if you wish.

[The Mad Monk]

They do, but its mostly minor. Textiles (rugs and the like), agricultural produce of local interest, that sort of thing. Cement.

[Elok]

Yeah, how much local commerce can be carried on without imports, or can be exported to get needed materials? Like the textiles you mention, TMM--are they made using local fibers and dyes, using locally-manufactured equipment, and so on? I imagine your average Iraqi shopkeeper sells mostly imported goods. Can't import without exports, and I've never heard of Iraq exporting anything much besides the black stuff.

[The Mad Monk]

Persian rugs, yes.

[Kidlicious]

They got a bunch of money from looting a bank. I don't see how they can maintain decent revenue.

[Sava]

Persian rugs, yes.

I once dated an Iranian girl.

Persian rugs