Scottish "Independence" manifesto

[C0ckney]

A nice link from Better Together showing some of the lies and deceptions around the independence financial and tax positions.

http://b.3cdn.net/better/ba7717447e9..._x6m62bdb6.pdf

this appears to be about the oil fund. i don't think anyone disputes that scotland, like almost every other country in europe, runs a fiscal deficit. however this hardly precludes raising extra money through other means.

They'll certainly get entry, despite whatever Spain and France harrumph about. The SNP however paint Scottish entry as almost a favour to the EU and completely refuse to deal with the simple fact that Scotland would have to negotiate a completely new entry, which would certainly include a future commitment to the Euro (as all new members have to) and would equally not include many of the vetos and provisions that the UK has previously agreed. That's just simple fact, and for them to deny it is wildly dishonest.

well, it's not surprising that the SNP are putting the best gloss on the case for independence. if i were a scottish voter, the EU entry would be important to me (or rather keeping the free trade etc.), and it seems unlikely that there will be any serious problems in this regard.

As for transitional agreements with the UK, the point is that any such agreements (as with the currency) depend on the rest of the UK going along with it. On the currency issue at least we have very little reason to want to.

why would the rest of the UK have to 'go along with it'? does the US 'go along' with ecuador and zimbabwe using the dollar? in any case i don't see why it would be in the rest of the UK's interests to cause problems.

Alex Salmond originally claimed Scotland would 'inherit' NATO membership. Then NATO said this was not true. The SNP also insist on a nuclear weapon free Scotland. NATO membership includes a commitment to NATO's nuclear umbrella.

NATO membership seems trivial frankly, and i'd imagine that's the view of most scottish voters.

[C0ckney]

The pension is the big hitter. It's a commitment to inflation-busting pension rises, with vague suggestions about not raising the state pension age as quickly as England/Wales.

Add that to an ageing population, with a hell of a lot of baby-boomers now hitting pensionable age, and life expectancies rising, and you have a rising outstripping both inflation and wages.

The child care incentive is a gamble in increasing childbirth in order to pay those bills in a generation's time.

pensions are going to be a challenge for all developed countries. however, i think the worries are overblown. all that needs to happen is for productivity to rise faster than the worker to pensioner ratio. that has always happened so far, as far as i'm aware. the pensions lock will at least guarantee pensioner living standards.

the childcare thing is interesting, it may increase childbirth, although it's short term effect would be to unlock more economic potential, with mothers returning to work sooner.

[kentonio]

would the welfare spending be sky high? scotland already has higher health and education spending than the rest of the UK and manages ok. how much would the new commitments cost? although i've not done the figures, the new commitments don't seem too onerous, certainly nothing that couldn't be covered by a moderate increase in taxes.

A nice link from Better Together showing some of the lies and deceptions around the independence financial and tax positions.

http://b.3cdn.net/better/ba7717447e9..._x6m62bdb6.pdf

i think the EU thing is interesting. it's clear that scotland would have to enter a process to enter the EU and that euro entry would be a condition of that. however the euro thing is a commitment to, at some undefined point, enter the euro. i don't see how the EU could actually force any country to enter the euro if it didn't want to. with the entry itself, it's possible that spain and perhaps other countries could raise objections, but scotland is a rich, developed country whose laws already comply with EU standards and norms. therefore, any delay is likely to be short, and there's no doubt that some transitional arrangements, to keep free movement of goods, people, and capital, could be worked out in the meantime.

They'll certainly get entry, despite whatever Spain and France harrumph about. The SNP however paint Scottish entry as almost a favour to the EU and completely refuse to deal with the simple fact that Scotland would have to negotiate a completely new entry, which would certainly include a future commitment to the Euro (as all new members have to) and would equally not include many of the vetos and provisions that the UK has previously agreed. That's just simple fact, and for them to deny it is wildly dishonest.

As for transitional agreements with the UK, the point is that any such agreements (as with the currency) depend on the rest of the UK going along with it. On the currency issue at least we have very little reason to want to.

no nukes and NATO membership, i don't see why not. there are many NATO that do have nukes, but even if scotland were to leave NATO, what would be the practical impact? none that i can see besides a few job losses at military bases.

Alex Salmond originally claimed Scotland would 'inherit' NATO membership. Then NATO said this was not true. The SNP also insist on a nuclear weapon free Scotland. NATO membership includes a commitment to NATO's nuclear umbrella.

[C0ckney]

Could it support itself? Yes, but with a big drop in living standards as they'd no longer get the generous transfer payments from England each year. Scots should be happy to sit around and keep getting the English to pay for their lifestyle.

right, this is one of those myths. here are some figures.

The key results for 2010-11 are as follows:

In 2010-11, total public sector expenditure for the benefit of Scotland by the UK Government, Scottish Government and all other tiers of the public sector, plus a per capita share of debt interest payments, was £63.8 billion. This is equivalent to 9.3 per cent of total UK public sector expenditure.

In 2010-11, total Scottish non-North Sea public sector revenue was estimated at £45.2 billion, (8.3 per cent of total UK non-North Sea revenue). Including a per capita share of North Sea revenue, total Scottish public sector revenue was estimated at £45.9 billion (8.3 per cent of UK total public sector revenue). When an illustrative geographical share of North Sea revenue is included, total Scottish public sector revenue was estimated at £53.1 billion (9.6 per cent of UK total public sector revenue).

[Hauldren Collider]

Scotland leaving NATO would be bad but we could probably make do as long as Norway stays in. We'd probably have to throw our weight around to keep the SOSUS line going. Although I'm not actually sure the sosus line still exists...might have been dismantled. In which case, yeah, **** em. We don't need them.

[Bugs ****ing Bunny]

would the welfare spending be sky high? scotland already has higher health and education spending than the rest of the UK and manages ok. how much would the new commitments cost?

The pension is the big hitter. It's a commitment to inflation-busting pension rises, with vague suggestions about not raising the state pension age as quickly as England/Wales.

Add that to an ageing population, with a hell of a lot of baby-boomers now hitting pensionable age, and life expectancies rising, and you have a rising outstripping both inflation and wages.

The child care incentive is a gamble in increasing childbirth in order to pay those bills in a generation's time.

[C0ckney]

also scotland's problems would likely come in the medium to long term. they could find themselves constrained after the oil starts to run out (or rather becomes uneconomical). however, that's quite a long way off and this leaves plenty of time to diversify the economy. scotland has a lot of potential for green energy for example.

[C0ckney]

What does the research suggest?

that scotland currently spends 9.3% and generates 9.6% of UK revenue, with more existing health and education spending commitments than the rest of the UK.

[C0ckney]

edit: massive x-post. was responding to ken.

would the welfare spending be sky high? scotland already has higher health and education spending than the rest of the UK and manages ok. how much would the new commitments cost? although i've not done the figures, the new commitments don't seem too onerous, certainly nothing that couldn't be covered by a moderate increase in taxes.

i think the EU thing is interesting. it's clear that scotland would have to enter a process to enter the EU and that euro entry would be a condition of that. however the euro thing is a commitment to, at some undefined point, enter the euro. i don't see how the EU could actually force any country to enter the euro if it didn't want to. with the entry itself, it's possible that spain and perhaps other countries could raise objections, but scotland is a rich, developed country whose laws already comply with EU standards and norms. therefore, any delay is likely to be short, and there's no doubt that some transitional arrangements, to keep free movement of goods, people, and capital, could be worked out in the meantime.

no nukes and NATO membership, i don't see why not. there are many NATO members that do have nukes, but even if scotland were to leave NATO, what would be the practical impact? none that i can see besides a few job losses at military bases.

[Bugs ****ing Bunny]

oh dear. it seems that some people have failed to do any research and have instead fallen back on the usual 'too wee, too poor, too stupid' canards.

What does the research suggest?

[Dinner]

[Ban Kenobi]

Is this how declaring your independence from Britain works now? What happened to cool shit like "Give me liberty or give me death" or dumping a fuckload of tea into a harbor? Scots are pussies.

The real pussies are the English who won't do anything to stop them from leaving.

[Dinner]

Personally I have no doubt that Scotland could support itself as an independent nation. Many smaller countries are already out there. However if anyone thinks they can have an independent country with sky high welfare spending, no nukes but NATO membership, EU membership but no Euro or Schengen commitment, while keeping the pound and experiencing no reduction in living standards in any way, then they need mental help.

The SNP 'plan' for an independent Scotland is a ****ing fairytale. They accept none of the likely negatives and brand anyone who raises them as 'Project Fear' and accuses them of trying to run down Scotland. Dishonest ****s.

Could it support itself? Yes, but with a big drop in living standards as they'd no longer get the generous transfer payments from England each year. Scots should be happy to sit around and keep getting the English to pay for their lifestyle.

[Dinner]

oh dear. it seems that some people have failed to do any research and have instead fallen back on the usual 'too wee, too poor, too stupid' canards.

Please.

The reality is they're promising the biggest welfare state in Europe but that they will also cut taxes and everything will balance because of... Magic? Hell, I'm half Scottish so I should be leaning towards Scottish nationalism but this is just retarded.

[kentonio]

oh dear. it seems that some people have failed to do any research and have instead fallen back on the usual 'too wee, too poor, too stupid' canards.

Personally I have no doubt that Scotland could support itself as an independent nation. Many smaller countries are already out there. However if anyone thinks they can have an independent country with sky high welfare spending, no nukes but NATO membership, EU membership but no Euro or Schengen commitment, while keeping the pound and experiencing no reduction in living standards in any way, then they need mental help.

The SNP 'plan' for an independent Scotland is a ****ing fairytale. They accept none of the likely negatives and brand anyone who raises them as 'Project Fear' and accuses them of trying to run down Scotland. Dishonest ****s.