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  • #16
    Originally posted by snoopy369 View Post
    There's absolutely no reason to believe a shooting war over islands = nuclear war. That's absurd. Japan doesn't even HAVE nuclear weapons
    Japan is a non-Nato US ally. The same rules apply. A skirmish involving the islands wouldn't result in nuclear war. But such a thing wouldn't be war. War between two nuclear powers is, by default, a nuclear war.

    regional hegemon
    A bit of a contradictory term. The US is the only superpower and enjoys global hegemony. By default, it is the hegemon in East Asia. China can't dominate the US anywhere outside of the mainland.

    Let's not let this devolve into an argument over semantics. We will likely agree on China's level of power (which is as close to an objective fact as possible). Personally, I never liked the term "regional hegemon". That's all.
    To us, it is the BEAST.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by PLATO View Post
      a Clancy Novel on the subject would be awesome!


      It wasn't that awesome

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      • #18
        Sava, "regional hegemon" is a real term used by real people in the IR field. The semantics are important, because that determines a lot about how international relations _work_. Regional hegemons act differently than superpowers and other countries react differently to them. This may be becoming less true as global politics change, but it's certainly true still today.

        In this case, the emergence of a single clear regional hegemon (China) encourages other countries to flock to the superpower (the US) to balance, or to flock to the regional hegemon (China) to bandwagon, depending on the risks and rewards of those two actions. Given the current situation, balancing is generally more beneficial than bandwagonning; hence the close relationship between the US and most of the meaningful non-China Asian countries (Japan, SKorea, Philippines, Taiwan; only NKorea (who is insane) and Indonesia (who are both internally screwed up, and would like to style themselves as a regional hegemonic rival in their minds) aren't aligned with the US. Were this a two-superpower situation (see USSR and US in the 1950s), the local nations would more likely align with the closer superpower, both to avoid being harmed in an armed struggle and because the two superpower alignment means neither is at risk of complete domination.

        (This is also why the post-1990 world suddenly became much more hostile for the US; we suddenly became the only superpower, and of the old regional hegemons, only China really was in position to act as one. Thus a lot of former bandwagonners suddenly decided it was in their best interest now to balance by supporting more local regional powers and have some say in the formation of a regional hegemon.)
        <Reverend> IRC is just multiplayer notepad.
        I like your SNOOPY POSTER! - While you Wait quote.

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        • #19
          Breaking this out:
          Japan is a non-Nato US ally. The same rules apply. A skirmish involving the islands wouldn't result in nuclear war. But such a thing wouldn't be war. War between two nuclear powers is, by default, a nuclear war.
          No. This is certainly not true. A shooting war between two nuclear powers is NOT a nuclear war, unless one of them uses nuclear weapons. Terminology is very important. And yes, a shooting war involving the islands could very well break out.

          Example: India/Pakistan, Kashmir. They are in an on again off again shooting war over the region (which is certainly defined as a war). They are both nuclear powers (give or take). It is not a nuclear war.

          Further, there is likely no requirement for the US to come to Japan's aid in the event of a minor conflict of this nature (even a fairly significant one). There are specific criteria for requiring our aid; anything else would be voluntary on our part. We might well help - likely would if it escalated to out and out war - but anything like this would probably be voluntary (I say this without reading the treaties, so feel free to find them and let us know).
          <Reverend> IRC is just multiplayer notepad.
          I like your SNOOPY POSTER! - While you Wait quote.

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          • #20
            No **** sherlock. I studied PS in college. The term was coined by John Mearsheimer, who I have met. One of my professors also was his student. I've had this discussion before in a professional setting.

            And the semantics are not important. "Regional power" should be used instead of "hegemon".
            To us, it is the BEAST.

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            • #21
              Originally posted by snoopy369 View Post
              Breaking this out:


              No. This is certainly not true. A shooting war between two nuclear powers is NOT a nuclear war, unless one of them uses nuclear weapons. Terminology is very important. And yes, a shooting war involving the islands could very well break out.

              Example: India/Pakistan, Kashmir. They are in an on again off again shooting war over the region (which is certainly defined as a war). They are both nuclear powers (give or take). It is not a nuclear war.

              Further, there is likely no requirement for the US to come to Japan's aid in the event of a minor conflict of this nature (even a fairly significant one). There are specific criteria for requiring our aid; anything else would be voluntary on our part. We might well help - likely would if it escalated to out and out war - but anything like this would probably be voluntary (I say this without reading the treaties, so feel free to find them and let us know).

              You are completely wrong... about everything.

              First, it a skirmish erupts between two nuclear powers and it doesn't escalate to the use of nukes, it's not a war... we're mostly splitting hairs about this. Vietnam wasn't technically a war. But we call it one. It's that kind of distinction. You can call it a war if you like, but I wouldn't consider it one. And since we're dealing with a subjective interpretation of terminologies, opinion does matter.

              India and Pakistan have not fought a war while both have been nuclear powers... save for the Kargil War... which was less than 1,000 casualties on both sides... combined. If that's a war, then gun violence in America is a war more than 10x as deadly.

              Also, the US already has policy regarding the Senkakus:



              So yeah. I accept your apology.
              To us, it is the BEAST.

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by PLATO View Post
                As I said, I think the possibility of a shooting war is small, but a Clancy Novel on the subject would be awesome!
                There have been at least two "Clancy" novels on the topic though he no longer writes anything and instead they're ghost written and his name is just put on them for marketing purposes.
                Try http://wordforge.net/index.php for discussion and debate.

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                • #23
                  Definition of WAR


                  1

                  a (1) : a state of usually open and declared armed hostile conflict between states or nations (2) : a period of such armed conflict (3) : state of war

                  b : the art or science of warfare

                  c (1) obsolete : weapons and equipment for war (2) archaic : soldiers armed and equipped for war

                  2

                  a : a state of hostility, conflict, or antagonism

                  b : a struggle or competition between opposing forces or for a particular end
                  "I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and you disagree with this administration somehow you're not patriotic. We should stand up and say we are Americans and we have a right to debate and disagree with any administration." - Hillary Clinton, 2003

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by H Tower View Post
                    Okay...ordered it. Was only $.01...so I know it must be good!
                    "I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and you disagree with this administration somehow you're not patriotic. We should stand up and say we are Americans and we have a right to debate and disagree with any administration." - Hillary Clinton, 2003

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                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Dinner View Post
                      There have been at least two "Clancy" novels on the topic though he no longer writes anything and instead they're ghost written and his name is just put on them for marketing purposes.
                      What's the second one?
                      "I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and you disagree with this administration somehow you're not patriotic. We should stand up and say we are Americans and we have a right to debate and disagree with any administration." - Hillary Clinton, 2003

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by PLATO View Post
                        Okay...ordered it. Was only $.01...so I know it must be good!


                        Of the top 10 most helpful user reviews, 8 were rated one star. The others were two stars.
                        To us, it is the BEAST.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by PLATO View Post
                          Definition of WAR
                          Wow. What a fascinating report on the subtle nuances of a complicated subject!

                          After recess we're going to finger-paint, okay?
                          To us, it is the BEAST.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by Sava View Post
                            Wow. What a fascinating report on the subtle nuances of a complicated subject!

                            After recess we're going to finger-paint, okay?
                            I just thought you might want to read the actual definition of war and not the one you made up in kindergarten.

                            I will call your mom and let her know its okay to get your finger paints out for you. Maybe you can even one day graduate to crayons!
                            "I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and you disagree with this administration somehow you're not patriotic. We should stand up and say we are Americans and we have a right to debate and disagree with any administration." - Hillary Clinton, 2003

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Sava View Post


                              Of the top 10 most helpful user reviews, 8 were rated one star. The others were two stars.
                              I know, right? I bet it is a real page turner!
                              "I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and you disagree with this administration somehow you're not patriotic. We should stand up and say we are Americans and we have a right to debate and disagree with any administration." - Hillary Clinton, 2003

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by PLATO View Post
                                I just thought you might want to read the actual definition of war and not the one you made up in kindergarten.
                                If I ever decide to go back to school, I'll be sure to try that for my next research paper... just copying the dictionary definition. It will definitely save on printer ink.
                                To us, it is the BEAST.

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