This just in: Israel returns fire on Syrian targets from the Golan Heights

[kentonio]

You're assuming that the resisting nation isn't able to prevent the aggressor from making some gains, but is strong enough to deter it from total conquest. That is a thin wedge that has rarely (never?) been true.

It was true in a vast majority of cases, which is why so many wars in human history ended with one country making concessions as opposed to being completely overrun by another. Wars of complete conquest are by far the rarer case.

Historically, the losers of wars rarely expected the loss.

You're really striking out on this subject. In many, many wars the defender was under no illusions as to their ability to win, which is why you see many historical examples of countries at war struggling to assemble coalitions or allies to help turn the tide.

If you're going to argue this stuff, you really need to read up on your history and not trust in game theory to provide real world guidance. If people naturally acted in ways that game theory shows to be the most profitable, there wouldn't have been a need to develop game theory.

[MikeH]

In warfare it tends to be because the value of "a human life" is completely different to the value of "my life". Which is why Spock "the good of the many" acts are considered exceptional acts of heroism not normal behaviour.

[molly bloom]

Dictatorship is frequently preferable to war for every party, even the oppressed.

I imagine that like me, you've never had to live under an actual dictatorship, or authoritarian regime.

Given that the choice of many of the exiles I've met and worked with has been stay in a country ruled by a dictator or junta and face torture, imprisonment and/or death, the option of war, guerilla or standard, was frequently the only option left other than enforced exile.

[regexcellent]

Oh for christ's sake molly, a handful of people getting tortured is not as bad as sending all your young men to get shot to pieces, the economy going to shambles, strategic bombing of major cities, rationing of resources, and famine.

[Hauldren Collider]

Oftentimes in a dictatorship, you can avoid being the tortured one by keeping your head down and not saying anything stupid. Unless it's a genocidal regime. But in any case it's a lot like an office job, just 24/7.

For example under Mubarak you were pretty much safe as long as you said you liked Mubarak.

[Kuciwalker]

You're relying on future hind-sight to judge the preferences of people who never actually chose to do the counterfactual that was necessary to get to the end you'd be using hind-sight from.

Yes, I am looking at what people did, seeing that it didn't work, and telling them that they should have done something else. WHAT A REASONABLE IDEA.

[Kuciwalker]

In human conflicts historically and present day there are a lot of situations where the inevitably victorious aggressor is planning to kill you and your sons and rape/enslave your wives and daughters.

In that case you are pretty much ****ed whatever you do. But that isn't usually the case. Again, see Denmark.

If that's going to happen it's in your interests to make them pay the heaviest price possible for that if only, as someone mentioned above, to make it clear that any future aggressors (of any survivors) should think very carefully before attacking. An "inevitably victorious aggressor" is always hard to predict before fighting starts.

Yes, which is why we have surprisingly many wars.

Again, you can easily construct a case where it makes sense to resist despite the inevitability of defeat; most real-world conflicts aren't like that, however, and happen because people don't think they are going to lose. Some of that is because it is hard to predict in advance, but some of that is because people seem to be pretty stupid re: this question. Entire nations delude themselves into thinking they can win.

[Kuciwalker]

I imagine that like me, you've never had to live under an actual dictatorship, or authoritarian regime.

Thankfully I've also never had to live in a war zone. However, given the choice I would go with the dictatorship.

[kentonio]

Jesus christ, it's painful to read this crap sometimes.

[MikeH]

Thankfully I've also never had to live in a war zone. However, given the choice I would go with the dictatorship.

There are various levels of dictatorship. Certain dictatorships living there could be a death sentence just because of ethnicity.

[Kuciwalker]

Yes, yes, if they are going to kill you anyway then you don't have much to lose resisting. But most dictatorships aren't very genocidal! In most dictatorships if you duck your head and get in line things will go pretty OK. Even in the case where a given ethnicity is oppressed, we aren't always talking about gas chambers and mass graves.

My claim was never a universal one. I said it was "frequently" true. And it is! And I suspect that it's true in Syria. It's even more likely to be true if, after going to "war" with Assad's security forces (getting tens of thousands of people killed) they then turn around and get into a war with Israel!

[Kuciwalker]

Shorter Kuci: people dying sucks.

[Hauldren Collider]

I'm not sure why there is so much dissent toward's Kuci's position, which is basically "wars are usually dumb and bad". Can Poly please decide whether it likes war or not? I've always thought that this forum was a bit on the peacenik side.

[kentonio]

Yes, yes, if they are going to kill you anyway then you don't have much to lose resisting. But most dictatorships aren't very genocidal! In most dictatorships if you duck your head and get in line things will go pretty OK. Even in the case where a given ethnicity is oppressed, we aren't always talking about gas chambers and mass graves.

No, we're usually talking about secret police torture facilities, disappearances, sporadic executions and the like. The idea that people should live under those conditions because it's better than the casualties that result from revolt is some pretty cowardly ****. If your opinion was prevalent then every country would live under that kind of regime now. Oh and guess what, dictatorships are more likely to wage actual real wars than democracies too, thus torpedoing your theory once and for all.

[kentonio]

I'm not sure why there is so much dissent toward's Kuci's position, which is basically "wars are usually dumb and bad". Can Poly please decide whether it likes war or not? I've always thought that this forum was a bit on the peacenik side.

Apart from a small group of you, Poly is generally pretty anti-dictatorship too.