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The Official 2012 Presidential Election Thread

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  • Sorry, I wasn't really aiming that at you. I saw Boris citing them, and I've seen other chatter on the web. But exit polls suggested a Kerry win in '04. I remember that oh so well.
    grog want tank...Grog Want Tank... GROG WANT TANK!

    The trick isn't to break some eggs to make an omelette, it's convincing the eggs to break themselves in order to aspire to omelettehood.

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    • this is awesome. Obama's turnout is HALF of what it was in Richmond in 08. The black turnout is waaaaay down.

      Also half down in Arlington. Gonna be a bad night for him if this keeps up.

      Bet it has to do with the fact that Doug Wilder refused to endorse Obama.
      If there is no sound in space, how come you can hear the lasers?
      ){ :|:& };:

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      • Originally posted by Hauldren Collider View Post
        this is awesome. Obama's turnout is HALF of what it was in Richmond in 08. The black turnout is waaaaay down.

        Also half down in Arlington. Gonna be a bad night for him if this keeps up.
        I have a feeling the way you're pumping yourself up, you'll be way more disappointed than people thinking Obama will win.
        "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
        Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

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        • Especially as they're talking about huge lines of people still waiting to vote in Dem strongholds.

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          • Settle down, HC; apparently, people are still standing in line to vote.
            "My nation is the world, and my religion is to do good." --Thomas Paine
            "The subject of onanism is inexhaustable." --Sigmund Freud

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            • Obama would have to win by a ****ing massive margin in Fairfax to win the state at this point, Kent.
              If there is no sound in space, how come you can hear the lasers?
              ){ :|:& };:

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              • Originally posted by Guynemer View Post
                Settle down, HC; apparently, people are still standing in line to vote.
                In Prince William, which is very very VERY conservative. They went for Obama last time, but I feel confident that won't happen again.

                VA Beach hasn't even been counted yet, and that will counterbalance Fairfax.

                I could still be wrong. But I don't think so.
                If there is no sound in space, how come you can hear the lasers?
                ){ :|:& };:

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                • Unfortunately for HC, Obama is probably going to win Ohio, which will make Virginia rather irrelevant.
                  <Reverend> IRC is just multiplayer notepad.
                  I like your SNOOPY POSTER! - While you Wait quote.

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                  • It's almost like HC cares more about the results in his home state than the national election as a whole :P

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                    • Originally posted by snoopy369 View Post
                      Unfortunately for HC, Obama is probably going to win Ohio, which will make Virginia rather irrelevant.
                      I have an avatar bet riding on this, goddammit
                      If there is no sound in space, how come you can hear the lasers?
                      ){ :|:& };:

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                      • Freaking Florida. They're gonna have another statistical tie down there. Hopefully it won't matter.
                        grog want tank...Grog Want Tank... GROG WANT TANK!

                        The trick isn't to break some eggs to make an omelette, it's convincing the eggs to break themselves in order to aspire to omelettehood.

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                        • snoopy, I wasn't saying no particular polls weren't biased. But the polling aggregate is not.

                          Anyway, PA called for Obama. That was Romney's only hope should he lose OH. Fat lady is warming up...
                          Tutto nel mondo è burla

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                          • If Florida doesn't, Ohio probably will.

                            xpost

                            (I say this because if Florida isn't a tie it will probably be for Romney, and then Ohio will likely be close as opposed to +2 Obama or something)

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                            • Originally posted by Boris Godunov View Post
                              snoopy, I wasn't saying no particular polls weren't biased. But the polling aggregate is not.

                              Anyway, PA called for Obama. That was Romney's only hope should he lose OH. Fat lady is warming up...
                              All polls, as well as all aggregations of polls, are biased. Any time you choose a sample n from population N where n < N, you have a biased poll. Even if n=N, your poll is likely biased due to wording/phrasing, question order, etc.

                              To say a poll is biased means that the result of the poll is not perfectly identical to the result were you to ask every person in the population (and, were you to somehow magically do so in a way that obtained their true opinion/the truth/etc. without biasing them). Of course, when you use the word 'bias' you mean it slightly differently, but the word does have an actual meaning.
                              <Reverend> IRC is just multiplayer notepad.
                              I like your SNOOPY POSTER! - While you Wait quote.

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                              • Originally posted by Hauldren Collider View Post
                                I have an avatar bet riding on this, goddammit
                                Obama still leads in Virginia according to Nate Silver's bellweather.

                                edit: not anymore

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