What do you think the US to Euro exchange rate will be in 18 months

[Jaguar]

I am probing whether he has any reason to fixate on this particular economic metric, which I suspect is a poor one for whatever question he's actually trying to determine the answer to.

[Dauphin]

Which Euro, the Southern or Northern one?

[Jon Miller]

Why do you think the exchange rate matters for your job searching? Spain has a currency with high value per unit, but you would receive fewer units. Japan has a currency with a low value per unit, but you would receive many more units.

Because I owe a lot of money in US $.

JM
(mostly school loans)

[Aeson]

USD to PHP is the one I watch. I predict it will briefly spike to 1000:1 the quickly return to ~43:1 the next time I go to the bank as I am trying to be more optimistic...

[Aeson]

Why do you think the exchange rate matters for your job searching? Spain has a currency with high value per unit, but you would receive fewer units. Japan has a currency with a low value per unit, but you would receive many more units.

Prices of goods and services are generally much more fluid in response to exchange rate movement than wages will be.

[Jaguar]

Prices of goods and services are generally much more fluid in response to exchange rate movement than wages will be.

Double-edged sword there. If you're counting on being in a place with a strong "sticky wage" effect, then you're also going to be in a place with high unemployment and other social ills.

[KrazyHorse]

You could convey some useful information to the people in this thread. For example, you know what financial instruments to look at to get a general idea of the market expectation. [IIRC they show that the expected exchange rate in a year is about the same as the expected exchange rate now.]

You also seem to have a good self-taught knowledge of monetary economics, so you're probably aware that "which currency purchases more per some arbitrary unit" is a very different question than "how many people are willing to use this currency?" If I say a Euro will probably go for about $1.20 next year, that doesn't imply I think that the Eurozone will be healthy.

1) I work for a company which actively speculates in the market being discussed. I am privy to our current view on that rate, though not the thinking which went into it. There is no way in hell I'm commenting on anything having to do with the fx market
2) at this point, I have substantially more than a self-taught understanding of monetary economics

[DaShi]

Damn it, KH! Just tell us when to buy and sell!

[Guynemer]

Damn it, KH! Just tell us who to buy and sell!

FTFY

[DanS]

This is an interesting question to which I am unable to offer a good answer. But I'm watching with interest as things blow up slowly. It's amazing to watch the tail wag the dog.

[Barnabas]

I have been forced to buy gold because the gov of Argentina does not let me buy dollars, and I need contacts in order to buy U$D in the illegal market, which are already like 20% more expensive anyway.

I am no expert, but I think a flight to the dollar has already begun, people selling gold and buying dollars, and changing their euros for dollars. I would very much prefer to get dollars right now.

The dollar is helped not only because of the problems in europe but also because America seems to be growing, some

[Zoetstofzoetje]

yesterday was a good example of gold still being considered a safe haven. pretty odd, considering it´s just a commodity.

[The Mad Monk]

Do you think Spain is going the way of Greece? There appears to be considerable panic right now.

[Zoetstofzoetje]

yes.

so many things wrong here. very little is being done to ameliorate the situation. the public would not re-elect those politicians that do what is necessary.

[DanS]

Greece is a world apart from Spain. In many respects, Spain works. Greece doesn't even have the institutions necessary to maintain a first-world economy -- e.g., it was impossible to know how much it was spending, even as minister of finance.

That said, Spain is being pushed into the same corner that Greece put itself in. Greece is a failure of Greece, but I view Spain as a failure of Europe.