What do you think the US to Euro exchange rate will be in 18 months

[Dinner]

You managed to post 3 paragraphs of bull**** and still not answer the question.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/hardtalk/9725121.stm

Greece will get booted out of the Euro, they will default (I mean officially default since they've already technically defaulted), and, yes, they're going to end up with a worse depression than Argentina had after it defaulted. Read up on the Argentina crisis, it isn't pretty, and you see what will happen to Greece but the Greeks will get it even worse.

BTW loads of economists agree that kicking the lazy Greeks out is really the kindest thing to do long term.

[Dinner]

On the up side every young Greek with remotely any talent will soon be in either North America or Northern Europe so I see cheap but authentic Greek restaurants in our futures.

[giblets]

I obviously don't know what I'm talking about but I'm guessing a euro will be worth slightly more dollars in the future.

[Elok]

On the up side every young Greek with remotely any talent will soon be in either North America or Northern Europe so I see cheap but authentic Greek restaurants in our futures.

Are you parodying your own incessant tendency to relate everything to trendy cuisine, or do you honestly think that way? Even if it's the latter, it'd probably be better for everyone involved in this thread if you simply claimed the former.

[C0ckney]

Because it would tarnish the Apolyton OT's previously-sterling record for insightful discussion by experts and accurate prediction of major world events?

hey we did successfully predict the great scat porn bubble of 2011. although to be fair a lot of ****ty predictions did get made in that thread as well.

[Dinner]

Are you parodying your own incessant tendency to relate everything to trendy cuisine, or do you honestly think that way? Even if it's the latter, it'd probably be better for everyone involved in this thread if you simply claimed the former.

I thought the winking smilie was enough to indicate that it was a joke. Missed that did you?

[Elok]

Even with the smiley, it's kinda weird. But okay, you were joking. If you start a "Which bankrupt-Greek-run restaurant has the best spanikopita" thread in a couple of years, though...bam, zoom, straight to the moon.

hey we did successfully predict the great scat porn bubble of 2011. although to be fair a lot of ****ty predictions did get made in that thread as well.

I remember the crash. It was terrible, with all the "squickbrokers" plummeting to the streets of Manhattan in despair. And the worst part was, nobody wanted to touch the bodies to clean them up. Even the garbagemen got the union to intervene. Tragic.

[C0ckney]

i think those images are burned into all our minds forever. i remember those who put all their savings into scat. families and pensioners who had been riding high on the scat wave woke up one day to discover that their futures had gone down the pan.

[Jaguar]

Jon, what makes you think you will get any insight as to the right answer? Nobody here is a professional fx speculator, and as the closest thing to one that poly has (closest being purely relative), I simply refuse to answer due to my lacking any real belief that I know the answer.

You could convey some useful information to the people in this thread. For example, you know what financial instruments to look at to get a general idea of the market expectation. [IIRC they show that the expected exchange rate in a year is about the same as the expected exchange rate now.]

You also seem to have a good self-taught knowledge of monetary economics, so you're probably aware that "which currency purchases more per some arbitrary unit" is a very different question than "how many people are willing to use this currency?" If I say a Euro will probably go for about $1.20 next year, that doesn't imply I think that the Eurozone will be healthy.

[Jaguar]

Of course, I somewhat believe that KH deliberately avoids educating people about things so that he can make fun of them later for being dumb.

[Jon Miller]

The market expectation for next year is obviously priced into the current value.

I am not trying to beat the market, just determine when I should start looking for a new job.

JM

[rah]

.9 is my prediction.

[Jaguar]

Why do you think the exchange rate matters for your job searching? Spain has a currency with high value per unit, but you would receive fewer units. Japan has a currency with a low value per unit, but you would receive many more units.

[Elok]

In 18 months, the people of Europe will be melting down their Euros for makeshift ammunition to hunt with. Their prey? The deadliest quarry of all: MAN.

[giblets]

Why do you think the exchange rate matters for your job searching? Spain has a currency with high value per unit, but you would receive fewer units. Japan has a currency with a low value per unit, but you would receive many more units.

Are you assuming he's stupid?