What do you think the US to Euro exchange rate will be in 18 months

[Jon Miller]

And why, if you will.

I am concerned about Elections, Greece, Spain, and many more things.

I know you are not the markets, but what do you think the markets will say in 1-2 years?

Right now it is about .8 euro/dollar, a year ago it was <.7, two years ago it was over .8.

What does Apolyton think?

JM

[MikeH]

About the same.

[Dinner]

The Euro will go through a very difficult time when Greece is finally forced out. Germany has been bailing them out but the new Greek government doesn't want to follow through on it's side of the deal so the only logical thing to do is cut them off and throw them out. Germany may try to equivocate for a while and keep throwing good money after bad but in the end Greece can't pay it's debts and really doesn't want to pay its debts so it's smarter to cut them off now and let the world of living hell began for them since it will end up happening anyway and the only question is how much money German taxpayers want to lose before it happens.

Once Greece is finally tossed out the real trauma for Greeks will begin with all imports and exports stopping, gas no longer being at pumps since it's all imported, the shops having nothing but local goods (and the Greeks don't produce **** so they'll be almost entirely empty), and with the several large banks from the countries who loaned them the money going down in flames (and forget about Greece's own banks they'll have been toast long ago). It's Argentina on steroids but maybe, just maybe, if it is traumatic and horrible enough then the lazy. no good, welching Greeks might actually make the needed reforms. They might just deregulate to create jobs, they might sell off government owned companies which currently dominate many industries, they might make it easier to hire and fire, they might lower the minimum wage so companies can afford to hire people, they might get rid of the maze of red tape which prevents people from getting things done in that country, and they might actually make it easier for people to start new businesses, and maybe regular Greeks will finally learn they can't all be lying tax cheats and that someone has to actually pay taxes.

One thing is for sure they've promised to reform over and over but never have actually made any meaningful reforms so I surmise they just haven't been through enough traumatic **** yet to do what is needed and they just need to be shoved into the burning feces of an outdoor cesspit which is on fire. Maybe that will prompt them to do what so obviously needs to be done.

[MikeH]

You managed to post 3 paragraphs of bull**** and still not answer the question.

[KrazyHorse]

Jon, what makes you think you will get any insight as to the right answer? Nobody here is a professional fx speculator, and as the closest thing to one that poly has (closest being purely relative), I simply refuse to answer due to my lacking any real belief that I know the answer.

[Jon Miller]

I am not an FX speculator, but FX plays a huge role in my financial well-being and will for the foreseeable future.

What I can do is read some blogs/etc (Which I do, and would be glad if anyone would point me to more) and learn about other people's observations (because they also make up a minor component of the market, and normal people as a whole make up a potentially major component of the market).

JM

[Kuciwalker]

zero or undefined

[Lorizael]

Are you predicting the collapse of America, the collapse of the Eurozone, or both?

[Kuciwalker]

The former would be infinity or undefined.

[The Mad Monk]

Jon, what makes you think you will get any insight as to the right answer? Nobody here is a professional fx speculator, and as the closest thing to one that poly has (closest being purely relative), I simply refuse to answer due to my lacking any real belief that I know the answer.

On the other hand, we're all just doing this to entertain ourselves, so why the **** not?

[The Mad Monk]

I'll say 1.2, based on the PIGS dominos all falling down and my own chutzpah.

[Elok]

On the other hand, we're all just doing this to entertain ourselves, so why the **** not?

Because it would tarnish the Apolyton OT's previously-sterling record for insightful discussion by experts and accurate prediction of major world events?

[DinoDoc]

I don't care about the Euro. I just want the Pound to go down relative to the Dollar to make my purchases cheaper.

[Dinner]

Speaking of the pound it seems the UK's decision to keep the Sterling and stay out of the Euro was a good one.

[notyoueither]

I've been reading some pretty bleak outlooks recently.