Let's resume our discussion about Harper and the oil lobby

[Asher]

Oerdin Asher & Co you are quoting from older sources.

I found articles in reputable sources from March 2012 saying 2 billion at most.

Where did you get your numbers? I can't find them anywhere.

[Asher]

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/02/16/old-harry-whips-gulf-into-a-tempest/?__lsa=de487012

Old Harry whips gulf into a tempest

Nicolas Van Praet Feb 16, 2012 – 4:52 PM ET | Last Updated: Mar 30, 2012 2:21 PM ET

Rarely has a stretch of seabed caused as much controversy as Old Harry.

The 30 km-long site in the Gulf of St. Lawrence is perhaps the biggest untapped offshore oil-and-gas play in Eastern Canada, harnessing estimated resources of 2 billion barrels of oil and as much as 7 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. It is also the epicentre of a monster battle for the future of the fish-rich waterway.

[Fake Boris]

Just a newspaper article in French, quoting representatives from the company itself.

http://www.ledevoir.com/environnement/actualites-sur-l-environnement/338426/petrole-gisement-de-classe-mondiale-a-anticosti

Your link is about Old Harry, which has been known for quite a while.

Mine is about new discoveries under Anticosti Island.

[Fake Boris]

My favorite part of googling for articles about Quebec in English is always the reader's comments.

Here's another gem to keep in my collection:

deport them all to france. they have the attitude to fit right in there

[Dinner]

Oerdin Asher & Co you are quoting from older sources.

The 30-40b barrels announcement is from December 2011; it mentioned that they found a more porous extraction point. I understand it could be bollocks, but at least, the company is not publicly traded, which does somewhat limit suspicions.

Apparently they found conventional reserves too, not gigantic, but commercially viable.

Do you have a link I could read, please? That way we can get to the bottom of exactly what we are talking about.

[Fake Boris]

Here's something that mentions Junex:

http://www.energydigital.com/press_releases/oil-and-gas/junex-selects-dd-securities-inc-as-market-maker

Why are you so insistent, are you looking for equity investments?

[Dinner]

Just a newspaper article in French, quoting representatives from the company itself.

http://www.ledevoir.com/environnement/actualites-sur-l-environnement/338426/petrole-gisement-de-classe-mondiale-a-anticosti

Your link is about Old Harry, which has been known for quite a while.

Mine is about new discoveries under Anticosti Island.

I just used google translate on that page and it seems to be saying the 30-40 billion figure is the total amount of oil in the formation which would mean if they got the same recovery rate as the Monterrey shale (350 billion total with ~2.5 billion recoverable) you'd get ~285 million barrels conventional; with fracking maybe an order of magnitude more or about 2.8 billion on the upper limit. Not bad but a pretty darn small discovery. Still better than nothing though.

[Fake Boris]

Could you please read the other link in #51 and tell us what you think about it?

[Dinner]

Could you please read the other link in #51 and tell us what you think about it?

There seemed to be a lot of fluff in that press release but I did notice this bit:

The company is in the heart of the Utica Shale gas discovery located in the St. Lawrence Lowlands and holds a significant land-package on the Anticosti Island where an independent report has provided their Best Estimate of the undiscovered shale oil initially-in-place ("OIIP") volume for the Macasty Shale on all five of Junex's permits on Anticosti Island at 12.2 billion barrels.

The 12.2 billion figure is initial oil in place or the total amount of hydrocarbons in the Utica shale deposit found in Quebec. That means the recoverable amount will be some tiny fraction of 12.2 billion (as I previously noticed the monterey shale has OIIP of ~350 billion with a conventional recovery amount of ~ 2.5 billion so we're talking a fraction of a fraction here). The Utica shale is also very deep located underneath the Marcelus shale (which is the big formation people are fracking in places like New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, etc...).

I expect recoverable gas deposits will be much, much higher than recoverable oil deposits as gas is a much smaller molecule than oil. Lately there has been a boom in Marcelus shale gas fracking in the Northeastern part of the US which has greatly expanded gas production but even with fracking oil extraction from the formation has been lack luster. The Utica lays below the Marcelus so it will be compacted even tighter with even less porosity & permeability in the formation. This will not be easy hydrocarbons to get.

[Dinner]

http://geology.com/articles/utica-shale/

Geology.cm has a good article on the Utica shale.

[regexcellent]

So the basic upshot of this is that while Alberta is swimming in oil, Quebec is not.

[Fake Boris]

Thanks.

I must admit I had assumed the quoted figures to be recoverable amounts.

[Fake Boris]

So the basic upshot of this is that while Alberta is swimming in oil, Quebec is not.

Remember that "billions" is actually 1.4.

[Dinner]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/junex-announces-exploration-operations-on-its-macasty-shale-oil-play-on-anticosti-island-2012-04-25-1217470

A better article on the Macasty Shale.

[Fake Boris]

So there's still hope that there's nothing there? Don't poison Anticosti's aquifers.