Let's resume our discussion about Harper and the oil lobby

[Asher]

The amount of proven reserves is a fluctuating number dependent on prices.

Just like with minerals, where the word "ore" refers to reserves that can be profitably extracted, so the same rock can be ore at 100 feet depth and not be ore at 500 feet depth.

Whenever gas prices come back down again Alberta will have a much smaller amount of proven oil.

The 180 or so depends on $30-$40 oil. You really think it'll go below that?

[regexcellent]

In that case probably not. I was just trying to illustrate a broader point about what "proven" means with respect to oil supplies. The principle applies much more to Quebec where reserves could potentially drop to near zero if the price drops significantly.

[Dinner]

Recent unexpected results have set hopes at around 30-40 billion barrels.

You are absolutely correct about the ecological factor. Hence "what I criticized Alberta for, I'll criticize Quebec for".

The 30-40 billion figure is no doubt the total amount in the ground which is different from what can be recovered. For instance the Monterrey shale in California's central valley has perhaps 350 billion barrels in it but only about 3.5 billion recoverable because of the low permiability of the clay portion of the shale as well as the ultra hard chert nuggets mixed in with it. Fracking with the right solution (you'd need a different solution chemistry here compared to Colorado or Pennsylvania) could bring that recoverable amount up a whole order of magnitude but the state went over the top on restricting fracking so progress is very slow.

Anyway, so far Quebec looks to have about 2 billion recoverable which is nice and will no doubt help the local economy but it's pretty small. Hopefully the numbers will improve with more exploration but it's starting from a very small base.

http://dailyresourcehunter.com/californias-profitable-shale-oil-scene/

http://oilshalegas.com/montereyshale.html

[Dinner]

To compare in 2009-2010 Occidental Petroleum came up with one of the largest dry land new conventional field discoveries in the US in recent decades and they're initially saying it's about half a billion barrels though they suspect with further exploration it can get into the 1-2 billion barrel recoverable range. Kern County still has some pretty good conventional fields out there but they're all ultra deep which is expensive and hard to get to.

http://www.dailyfinance.com/2009/09/24/new-oil-discovery-in-california-will-golden-state-go-back-to-bl/

Conventional off shore in the state is estimated at between 15-25 billion recoverable though the stupid state off shore drilling ban has stopped all production (though test wells have still be allowed which prove the oil is there). The state is being absolutely retarded in blocking the development of this resource because it could single handedly put the state budget back in the black though it would take ~10 years to get these off shore fields into production.

[Asher]

And yet, no one cares about San Diego, Monterrey, California, etc.

[Dinner]

I was comparing Quebec's finds to other recent finds to put it in context, jack ass.

[Dinner]

Does anyone know if Quebec's conventional off shore reserves are light or heavy, sweet or sour? If it's a light sweet then even a small quantity could be pretty valuable; less so if it's a heavy sour.

[regexcellent]

I know light means light fractions like the ones used in gasoline, kerosene, and diesel fuel, but what does sweet mean?

[Dinner]

Sulfur content of the oil. In California the vast majority of the oil is heavy sour which means not only does it cost more to refine as you have to remove the heavy components (asphaltics, etc...) but you also need a whole series of additional refining steps to remove the sulfur. The sulfur makes the oil acidic so it eats up the refinery equipment pretty fast plus sour oil contains hydrogen sulfide gas which can kill people in about 20-30 seconds and even a few parts per billion in the air can make people sick over a mile away. It increases refining costs by a lot because you need additional steps and a lot of specialty equipment to get rid of it.

[KrazyHorse]

Of course the energy sector is Canada's economic future.

The energy sector is and will be important, but to claim that it "is the future" is overly dramatic. Canada is closing in on the 2 trillion gdp mark. There's no such economy that's not pretty well diversified.

[Kuciwalker]

Being overly dramatic never killed anyone.

[KrazyHorse]

10000 teen suicides belie that.

[dannubis]

Whenever gas prices come back down again ...

You honestly believe this ?

[regexcellent]

Yes. I believe that at some point, the first derivative of the price of gas will be negative.

Whether they will ever be lower than they are now, who knows? It's not really relevant to the point I was making.

[Fake Boris]

Oerdin Asher & Co you are quoting from older sources.

The 30-40b barrels announcement is from December 2011; it mentioned that they found a more porous extraction point. I understand it could be bollocks, but at least, the company is not publicly traded, which does somewhat limit suspicions.

Apparently they found conventional reserves too, not gigantic, but commercially viable.