2012 Election Map Prediction Thread

[Al B. Sure!]

This reminds me very strongly of NFL talk.

Not sure what the connection is.

[The Mad Monk]

Wins. Losses. Favorites. Rivalries.

[giblets]

You could also say he must win Texas. There's no way Romney could realistically win if Obama gets Texas. But the question is whether it would flip before other states. If Obama wins Florida, he also wins other states he would need.

There's a possibility of Florida actually swinging the election. Just because Florida was relatively Republican in the previous election doesn't make it certain that it will be this time around.

[Elok]

Wins. Losses. Favorites. Rivalries.

Guys gathering together to intensely discuss statistics and possibilities in a knowing manner. Nobody has yet referred to Rubio as a "first-round draft pick" in my hearing, but I think it's only a matter of time.

[Al B. Sure!]

Guys gathering together to intensely discuss statistics and possibilities in a knowing manner. Nobody has yet referred to Rubio as a "first-round draft pick" in my hearing, but I think it's only a matter of time.

Well now that you mention it, Romney picking Rubio would be like the Miami Dolphins drafting Tannehill in the first round. It's a bit of a reach with someone so inexperienced, a significant risk but with potential long-term boom value. I would argue the Dolphins needed to improve the supporting cast before bringing in an inexperienced sometime QB and Romney has issues with his campaign that he needs to straighten out that won't get magically solved by putting Rubio on the ticket.

I would prefer if Romney improved his team with a safer but lower upside move like Rob Portman.

[Al B. Sure!]

Nah it's different than sports because elections are purely a popularity contest. There's no 'game' where unpopular moves can come to fruition.

For example, the Jets will sell a lot of jerseys with Tebow on them (it was a popular move) but will Tebow necessarily improve their chance of winning games, especially as a backup QB? Probably not. That Tebow money could have been used on a quiet signing of a situational linebacker or a committee running back or something that would have helped the Jets team more.

Politics is different.

[giblets]

He should pick a woman. Maybe Sarah Palin. John McCain still insists she was qualified

[kentonio]

Romney might be able to overperform significantly in Massachusetts, but I can't see him winning it outright.

Definitely, Obamas polling something like 20 points ahead.

I think Ohio in particular is going to be a tough win for the GOP this year, especially given the unpopularity of their governor.

Obama currently 7 points ahead in Ohio. Looking positive so far.

[Elok]

Nah it's different than sports because elections are purely a popularity contest. There's no 'game' where unpopular moves can come to fruition.

For example, the Jets will sell a lot of jerseys with Tebow on them (it was a popular move) but will Tebow necessarily improve their chance of winning games, especially as a backup QB? Probably not. That Tebow money could have been used on a quiet signing of a situational linebacker or a committee running back or something that would have helped the Jets team more.

Politics is different.

Of course they're not precisely analogous, but I think guys follow politics for much the same reason they follow sports: they're fascinated by the ins and outs of a complex competitive system founded on the instincts of primitive tribal antagonism. The "game" itself tends to take a backseat to the higher-level analysis of arguing about whether such-and-such was a good call. And it's a distinctly male thing in my experience. I mean, my mom loves football--she's from Pittsburgh, so she roots for the Steelers--but she doesn't yammer on about who they'll start next year or how their starting lineup. No, she just sits in front of the TV and screams at it (it's actually quite funny to hear). While my father and brother are much calmer during the actual game, they'll jaw on for hours about what the owners will do this season and who's got better odds of winning the division given that they have X but the other team has Y and yadda yadda...bear in mind that this is an outsider's impression, since I don't really care for sports. Or politics, really. But they seem similar to me.

Also, since football is a for-profit subset of the entertainment industry, it IS ultimately about popularity, albeit that popularity is almost always based on talent. And like politics, it puts an inordinate focus on goofy personal narratives rather than actual performance. Compare:

John Johnson was an inner-city kid with no prospects but a good throwing arm. He practiced after school every day and took a paper route and other cliches to buy sports equipment. Blah blah blah college blah blah blah second-round draft pick blah blah third-string blah blah sudden injuries blah blah his moment to shine blah blah MVP blah blah set new records blah blah blah modern Cinderella story.

to

John Johnson was the son of a coal miner from Hitchawitchee County, Kentucky. He learned hard work and family values from working on his Uncle Clem's llama farm after school. Blah blah county council position blah blah community service blah blah booze problems blah blah came to Jesus blah blah blah State Senate blah blah House of Representatives blah blah blah God Bless America.

[Guynemer]

Smutto.

What the **** is this?

[regexcellent]

Definitely, Obamas polling something like 20 points ahead.

By overperform he means he thinks that Romney might do better than nominally expected. Remember that polls do not perfectly sample who will actually vote. For instance, Rick Santorum overperformed polls in a number of midwestern states throughout the primary season iirc. It doesn't really matter where Obama is polling; the potential for overperformance of the poll is totally unrelated to that.

Obama currently 7 points ahead in Ohio. Looking positive so far.

What is it with the British obsession with Ohio elections that don't affect them?

[DaShi]

The Brits still take interest in their colony that was led astray.

[Dinner]

I keep hearing the talking head on the news claiming it's all down to Iowa, Ohio, and Florida. Romney must win all three while if Obama can take just one he wins. You could make it four states by including Virginia but it looks like Virginia is leaning red.

[Dinner]

Obama currently 7 points ahead in Ohio. Looking positive so far.

Yeah, that's why he was campaigning in Ohio last weekend and reminding all those auto workers how he helped save their jobs while Romney wanted to let them all die.

[regexcellent]

Romney doesn't necessarily need Iowa. New Hampshire, Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico are also possibilities, as we've observed in this thread.