Ron Paul takes the lead in Iowa.

[Felch]

I can't believe Santorum--****ing RICK "frothy lube anal sex etc" SANTORUM--could win this thing.

I know. I can't imagine what it's like to have a name that refers to anal sex. Who would ever take you seriously?

[Hauldren Collider]

Guy, it's IOWA. It's the part of America Americans forget even exists. Don't sweat it

[giblets]

If it's any comfort, romney iowa 85-89, santorum iowa 11-18

What is this supposed to mean? With 93% of precincts reporting, Santorum is ahead of Romney by a slim margin.

[Guynemer]

Santorum bouncing all over the place.

PHRASING

[Felch]

I think KH meant to say "splashing" or possibly "oozing".

[KrazyHorse]

What is this supposed to mean? With 93% of precincts reporting, Santorum is ahead of Romney by a slim margin.

Dude, one of the major advantages of markets is that they aggregate info like this AND other info which you haven't counted (e.g. WHICH precincts haven't reported yet).

FYI, there is essentially an arb available currently; romney iowa 55.5-56.0 santorum iowa 26.5-32.0

[KrazyHorse]

...and it's gone. santorum up to 40-49

[Barnabas]

I just saw Gingrich on tv critizicing Ron Paul, for a moment I thought he was the embassador of Israel

[giblets]

...and it's gone. santorum up to 40-49

Okay, I didn't know that market reacts so quickly.

[Dinner]

It's Iowa. Who cares?

Interesting fact: Of the last seven elections (not counting incumbants running unopposed) Iowa Republicans had their pick win the nomination just twice (2 times out of 7) while Iowa Democrats were the exact opposite where their pick won the nomination 5 out of 7 times. Also Iowa went blue in five of the last six Presidential elections so I'd say Iowa's Dems are pretty main stream while the Republicans tend to be complete wack jobs who pick losers even by Republican standards.

[KrazyHorse]

Okay, I didn't know that market reacts so quickly.

Of course it does/ The scale of money is relatively small (a few tens of thousands of dollars change hands every day) but AS SOON AS YOU PUT MONEY ON THE LINE, people stop acting like idiots and start acting a hell of a lot more rational.

[DaShi]

I know. I was just in Las Vegas last week.

[KrazyHorse]

One of the most amazing things to watch is how much better at poker people become when you go from 0 cash to 25 cent antes

[Dinner]

Okay, I didn't know that market reacts so quickly.

If I gave a **** I would put money against Santorum though I doubt the pay off is worth very much and the opportunity costs are higher then the expected return. Butt Sex Santorum stands zero chance of becoming the nominee especially since it's looking like he's drawing in Iowa. Lastly, when I am dictator of the universe bull**** obvious gambling like the above mentioned InTrade will be outlawed or at the very least taxed at a rate were every $1 gambled (only an idiot would call this "investing") your taxes owed would automatically go up several thousand dollars no matter if you win, lose, or draw. **** arguments about this remotely having anything to do with investing, it's gambling, and this type of casino capitalism needs to be discouraged not give tax advantages. Anyone who disagrees can eat my shorts.

[Felch]

How much you wanna bet?