Ron Paul takes the lead in Iowa.

[kentonio]

Who cares?

How about all those people who 'invested' money in the Iowa race trusting that the market always knows best?

[KrazyHorse]

If you think the market knows best why would you put money into a (slightly) negative sum game?

That argument is classic idiocy.

People who try to beat the markets are those who believe they've found inefficiencies, by ****ing definition.

[Bugs ****ing Bunny]

Intrade now quoting Paul's chances of winning any Republican primary/caucus in 2012 as 5.1%.

Is Intrade still considered good to quote, or has it become part of the evil conspiracy against Paul overnight?

[KrazyHorse]

It was good when it showed paul as having a chance tonight, then became an evil conspiracy some time later

[kentonio]

If you think the market knows best why would you put money into a (slightly) negative sum game?

That argument is classic idiocy.

People who try to beat the markets are those who believe they've found inefficiencies, by ****ing definition.

Who gives a **** about beating markets? Intrade is just a ****ty predictor of political results, because people don't vote rationally.

[Dinner]

The real question is why don't delegate in caucus states have to vote according to the caucus results? In many primary states a candidate gets to appoint delegates based on his election results but not in caucus states. Why? Heck, why even have a caucus instead of a primary anyway? Is it cheaper or just tradition?

[giblets]

Who gives a **** about beating markets? Intrade is just a ****ty predictor of political results, because people don't vote rationally.

People who want to have more money give a **** about beating markets.

[giblets]

The real question is why don't delegate in caucus states have to vote according to the caucus results? In many primary states a candidate gets to appoint delegates based on his election results but not in caucus states. Why? Heck, why even have a caucus instead of a primary anyway? Is it cheaper or just tradition?

Just in case Paul won the Iowa caucus, they wouldn't have to give him any delegates.

[Dinner]

I was hoping for a nonPaultard answer but I guess I'll just look it up.

[Dinner]

BTW as "I give up and am dropping out of the race" speeches go Perry had a good one. Easily his best speech I've seen. The man has gotten much better at delivering speeches over the last few months.

[KrazyHorse]

Who gives a **** about beating markets? Intrade is just a ****ty predictor of political results, because people don't vote rationally.

This is absolute ****ing idiocy. People don't have to vote rationally for markets to be good predictors, you ****ing buffoon.

[kentonio]

This is absolute ****ing idiocy. People don't have to vote rationally for markets to be good predictors, you ****ing buffoon.

Then please explain why they were so ****ing inaccurate today?

[KrazyHorse]

how were they inaccurate?

[KrazyHorse]

(this ought to be good)

[KrazyHorse]

Come on, sweetheart. I see you lurking: under what statistical measure do you believe the markets were horribly inaccurate?