I have survived my second annual thinning of the herd

[Whoha]

I agree, I should strive to prevent my ideological slant from getting in the way of proven progress.

[Dinner]

I doubt it has much impact on profitable businesses. One dollar an hour, or two, is very, very little.

That's basically the heart of the argument which has been going on for decades about the minimum wage. Yes, everyone agrees that, in general, when you increase the minimum wage then you decrease demand for employment but the real question is to what degree exactly. In other words, what exactly is the shape of the supply and demand curve for wages vs employment (or even employment growth). That's virtually impossible to accurately model especially since there are so many other factors at play plus the exact numbers were vary from city to city as well as from job type to job type. Some claim it's a steep curve where even a slight increase results in significantly less employment (and that may happen in city locations with certain job types) while others say it's a very gentle slow where even relatively large increase (10%-30%) may not have much over all effect on total employment for people at the minimum wage level. It's an eternal debate since market conditions change on a daily basis.

[KrazyHorse]

I agree, I should strive to prevent my ideological slant from getting in the way of progress.

No, you should realize that econometric techniques that purport to discover something via boneheaded analyses like a naive cross-state comparison are worthless.

[KrazyHorse]

That's basically the heart of the argument which has been going on for decades about the minimum wage. Yes, everyone agrees that, in general, when you increase the minimum wage then you decrease demand for employment but the real question is to what degree exactly

Yes.

The real point, however, is that most minimum wage earners (in the US and Canada, at least) are not the heads of poor households; rather, the typical minimum wage earner is a high-school student. Alleviating poverty by raising the minimum wage is idiotic.

[Aeson]

I should point out that the potential here is likely due to it being "on the cusp" so to speak. 20 years ago it wouldn't have worked nearly as well, even though the land and labor was cheaper. There was no local demand, which for items which can't be shipped well makes it a no-go. (Shipping overseas was still a good business model for other products. Dole for instance did very well here for the past 50 or so years.) The necessary infrastructure for local growth of the economy was not in place yet in much of the country. Population is increasing very fast while land, specifically land which can be used for agriculture, is diminishing due to being built on for housing (and some environmental damage as well). Prices are increasing at a dramatic rate.

It hasn't been fully exploited yet. Perhaps just because it's moving so fast.

[Dinner]

Yes.

The real point, however, is that most minimum wage earners (in the US and Canada, at least) are not the heads of poor households; rather, the typical minimum wage earner is a high-school student. Alleviating poverty by raising the minimum wage is idiotic.

There are millions of immigrants making either minimum wage or very close to minimum wage so it's not just teenagers. Sure, a lot of them are undocumented or working at official "per piece" rates which are effectively below minimum wage (this is the standard in argiculture and the garment industry) but that's still a lot of non-teenagers.

BTW you clipped my quote to avoid the heart of the conversation which multiple people in this thread have mentioned. The exact shape of the supply and demand curve between wages vs employment; if it's steep then a small increase in wages can result in large decreases in employment but if the slope is slight then we can get large increases in wages with only slight decreases in employment. So the real question remains what exactly does the curve look like and how can we accurately model it? If we can't say that then we're pissing in the wind for the most part.

[Hauldren Collider]

I can add PH to the list of people I am better than. This list keeps getting longer, thanks for the confidence boost PH

[Al B. Sure!]

Not everyone working at McDonalds is a teenager or elderly, even if they are a significant percentage of employees. I've worked many years in fast food service at many different locations and with the high turnover in fast food, I've seen hundreds and hundreds of people put on those dinky uniforms... I'd say about half of them were adults with kids.

All minimum wage earners, obviously. Quite a few would also get public assistance, though.

[BlackCat]

The real point, however, is that most minimum wage earners (in the US and Canada, at least) are not the heads of poor households; rather, the typical minimum wage earner is a high-school student. Alleviating poverty by raising the minimum wage is idiotic.

Easily solved. Just make the minimum wage granted for high-school students and say double it for others

[Hauldren Collider]

Easily solved. Just make the minimum wage granted for high-school students and say double it for others

Why the **** does this make any sense? If you recognize the damage of the minimum wage to the point where you create an exception for everyone it actually harms, you may as well get rid of the whole damn thing.

[Dinner]

Not everyone working at McDonalds is a teenager or elderly, even if they are a significant percentage of employees. I've worked many years in fast food service at many different locations and with the high turnover in fast food, I've seen hundreds and hundreds of people put on those dinky uniforms... I'd say about half of them were adults with kids.

All minimum wage earners, obviously.

Here in California I see tons, in fact the majority, of people working at fast food places being immigrants from Latin America with a few east Asians. Most of them barely speak English, have low job skills, yet are between 20-40 years of age so it's clearly not just teenagers working these minimum wage or with in pennies of minimum wage jobs. The one major exception to this trend is In-N-Out Burger which seems to mostly hire American born teenagers but In-N-Out starts employees off at $10 and hour and it's very common to see high school kids making $12-$13 per hour there after a few years of flipping burgers. The other fast food places mostly start at minimum wage and they're all illegals or recent legal immigrants.

[Hauldren Collider]

Here in California I see tons, in fact the majority, of people working at fast food places being immigrants from Latin America with a few east Asians. Most of them barely speak English, have low job skills, yet are between 20-40 years of age so it's clearly not just teenagers working these minimum wage or with in pennies of minimum wage jobs.

Perhaps that is because in California it is only profitable to higher older, more experienced workers? Since you are forced to pay them more per hour you may as well get something for that investment.

I know for a fact that it is because of the weak labor "protections" in Virginia that I was able to get a job at the grocery store a few summers ago, which is by the way a job I worked quite hard at and am quite proud of, thank-you-very-much.

[Al B. Sure!]

My gut feeling proved correct:

http://www.bls.gov/cps/minwage2005tbls.htm#1

Of minimum wage earners in 2005:
Ages 16-19: 26.1%
Ages 20-24: 27.2%
Over 25: 46.7%

So the vast majority are adults and about half are over 25.

[Dinner]

Thank you, Albert.

[KrazyHorse]

There are millions of immigrants making either minimum wage or very close to minimum wage so it's not just teenagers. Sure, a lot of them are undocumented or working at official "per piece" rates which are effectively below minimum wage (this is the standard in argiculture and the garment industry) but that's still a lot of non-teenagers.

In absolute numbers, a lot. In percentages, not very many.

Now think about those marginally attached immigrants. They have chosen to come to the US EVEN THOUGH they knew what the minimum wage was. They have made a conscious decision that coming to the US, despite all the trouble they had to go through, was worthwhile...

BTW you clipped my quote to avoid the heart of the conversation which multiple people in this thread have mentioned.

I clipped it because the reason behind the scale of change in quantity you provided (as a function of slope of supply & demand curves for labor) is patently obvious to anybody with any sense. I was not trying to misrepresent your post (and thought that by including the question about degree I was including the essence of it)