CanPol: May(?) 2011 Election. Vote today!

[notyoueither]

Back to serious business.

How many NDP candidates have sufficiently meaningful experience to occupy a cabinet position?

Right off the bat Mulcair was a provincial lib minister. Do they have ~20 Mulcairs?

At a guess, they would have a lot of quality candidates in parts of the Maritimes and West of Ottawa. They run second consistently in places in Ontario and a lot of ridings once you get into the West and thus should attract better candidates.

[notyoueither]

Perhaps more importantly, they would have scads of staff with a lot of experience in municipal and provincial government.

They may be rough around the edges to begin, but experience isn't something I'd penalise them for.

[notyoueither]

@OlBonfire
Ghost of RB Bennett
This socialist wave must be stopped. It was fun when they took out @ArthurMeighen in 1942, but someone is soon going to lose an eye #elxn41

[Wezil]

Would explain their outrageous polling question.

"Those polled were asked:“If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?”"

What is outrageous about that?

[Fake Boris]

The one I got last week.

[Wezil]

KH already answered that. The question you were asked would not be asked by any reputable firm. Which leads to...

NYE - If you think the numbers are a Liberal fabrication could you please explain to me the motive for inflating NDP support?

If anything is odd abut Ekos numbers it seems to be in the Conservative support. Again, nothing "outrageous": http://www.sfu.ca/~aheard/elections/polls.html#NATIONAL

[notyoueither]

EKOS pretty consistently underestimates Conservative support, from what I've observed.

Also, several Liberals can see the obvious, Ignatieff is a dead man walking. Jeffery Simpson began the post mortem late last week. What remains is an anti-Harper bias.

[notyoueither]

KH already answered that. The question you were asked would not be asked by any reputable firm. Which leads to...

NYE - If you think the numbers are a Liberal fabrication could you please explain to me the motive for inflating NDP support?

If anything is odd abut Ekos numbers it seems to be in the Conservative support. Again, nothing "outrageous": http://www.sfu.ca/~aheard/elections/polls.html#NATIONAL

The seat projection is outrageous. The Bloc at 14 seats? The NDP over 50? That leaves less than 11 seats for the Liberals in Montreal and the Conservatives in Quebec City. It is simply implausible.

Also, take a closer look at the chart. EKOS is pretty consistent in seeing Conservative support 3 or 4 points lower than the others.

[notyoueither]

If nothing else, it may give us something to discuss.

http://www.thehilltimes.ca/page/view/95ridings-04-25-2011

The 95 Ridings To Watch on Election Day
'Concentrated, important skirmishes' underway in hotly-contested ridings across Canada
By BEA VONGDOUANGCHANH, JESSICA BRUNO
Published April 25, 2011

[joncha]

The seat projection is outrageous. The Bloc at 14 seats? The NDP over 50? That leaves less than 11 seats for the Liberals in Montreal and the Conservatives in Quebec City. It is simply implausible.

I'm not saying it's going to happen for the NDP, but the Bloc did go from 0 to 54 seats in Quebec in 1993 and the Progressive Conservatives went from 1 to 58 in 1984...

[Wezil]

EKOS pretty consistently underestimates Conservative support, from what I've observed.

Also, several Liberals can see the obvious, Ignatieff is a dead man walking. Jeffery Simpson began the post mortem late last week. What remains is an anti-Harper bias.

A polling company with fake numbers is of no use to anyone.

[Wezil]

I'm not saying it's going to happen for the NDP, but the Bloc did go from 0 to 54 seats in Quebec in 1993 and the Progressive Conservatives went from 1 to 58 in 1984...

I don't doubt what people are telling the pollsters but I don't think the NDP will get the vote out on the 2nd. Particularly in Quebec where they have little to no grass roots organisation.

[Wezil]

Bureaucracy
Media
Polling firms

Canada must be a mighty scary place for Conservatives with so many people and groups out to get them. No wonder they practice the politics of fear.

[Wezil]

“It’s a protest vote,” Jean-Marc Léger, head of polling firm Léger Marketing, said particularly of the NDP’s strength in Quebec, where public opinion polls show the party vying for top spot with the Bloc Québécois.

Dissatisfaction with the political status quo has quietly emerged as a significant factor for a large proportion of voters in the coveted political centre, said Jaideep Mukerji, vice-president at Angus Reid. Increasingly, he said, those voters are setting their sights on the NDP.

It's worse than just Ekos, it's a pollster conspiracy.

[Fake Boris]

Bureaucracy
Media
Polling firms

Canada must be a mighty scary place for Conservatives with so many people and groups out to get them. No wonder they practice the politics of fear.

This is changing. Quebecor has been moderately warm to the Conservatives. And then there's the National Post. I certainly wouldn't pity someone who's the candidate of the oil lobby...