CanPol: May(?) 2011 Election. Vote today!

[notyoueither]

http://ipolitics.ca/2011/04/21/ndp-surges-in-quebec-bloc-quebecois-dropping/

NDP surges to top spot in Quebec,
Bloc Québécois campaign flagging
Posted on Thu, Apr 21, 2011, 12:06 am by Elizabeth Thompson

Jack Layton’s New Democratic Party has surged past the Gilles Duceppe’s faltering Bloc Québécois and is now in first place in Quebec, according to a poll conducted by Ekos Research and iPolitics.

The poll, conducted earlier this week, found the New Democrats have jumped 10 percentage points since the eve of the leaders debate to 31.4 per cent while the Bloc has dropped by 3.9 percentage points to 27.2 per cent.

...

The poll is based on telephone interviews, on landlines and cellphones, using Interactive Voice Response technology between April 18-20 with 2,156 respondents and is considered accurate to within 2.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

[Fake Boris]

Exhibit: I got "polled" by Ekos last week, by a robot (err, "interactive voice service").

The question was: "Jack Layton and the NDP have gained tremendous momentum since the beginning of the campaign. They are working restlessly. Do you believe they are on the right path?"

[notyoueither]

I am under the impression that they and Ipsos Reid have critics.

Still, there was more than one poll. Also, add in the reception Layton has been getting at rallies. It looks like there is something real there.

[notyoueither]

Also, I find it interesting that they are polling cell phone users. I wonder what sort of response they get.

[Fake Boris]

The surge is real and potentially historical, though I can't see them outscoring the Bloc when the time comes to count the ballots.

The typical NDP candidate in Quebec is a 23y old college student.

[notyoueither]

How much will they help the Liberals and Conservatives by vote splitting?

[Fake Boris]

Totally unpredictable.

They're drawing voters from all sides.

The Conservatives are more likely to benefit. And yes, this has con intoxication written all over it.

[Flubber]

Exhibit: I got "polled" by Ekos last week, by a robot (err, "interactive voice service").

The question was: "Jack Layton and the NDP have gained tremendous momentum since the beginning of the campaign. They are working restlessly. Do you believe they are on the right path?"

Wow -- what an awful polling question. The only worse one would be something like "Party X supports forced sodomization of of your children. Do you support Party X"

Its Polling 101 to ask the impartial question first and only after getting that result, moving to questions where you might suggest things about current events, trends etc etc ( and even then, do it very warily)

But then again I am assuming people want accurate results and thats not always the case

[Flubber]

Totally unpredictable.

They're drawing voters from all sides.

The Conservatives are more likely to benefit. And yes, this has con intoxication written all over it.

The Cons are certainly liking the NDP resurgence/strength except in ridings where the main contender was already NDP-- They want them stronger everywhere they were third and weaker wherever they are second or first -----

[KrazyHorse]

Wow -- what an awful polling question. The only worse one would be something like "Party X supports forced sodomization of of your children. Do you support Party X"

Its Polling 101 to ask the impartial question first and only after getting that result, moving to questions where you might suggest things about current events, trends etc etc ( and even then, do it very warily)

But then again I am assuming people want accurate results and thats not always the case

I call BS on it, unless it was a wildcat push poll

[notyoueither]

Some of these are amusing.

tuppercharles Charles Tupper
@bobbyborden opposes free trade. His Unionist coalition will tax iPods & TruckNutz you buy abroad. It's just the beginning. #deadpmattackads

MacdonaldJohnA John A. Macdonald
@mauriceduplessi Sticks and stones may break my bones, but I never stuck orphans into loony bins. http://tiny.cc/lgwrn #DeadPMattackads

[Fake Boris]

I call BS on it, unless it was a wildcat push poll

The poll identified itself as "Ekos".

I suppose they would have the legal means to sue usurpation of their name.

Note that I live in a riding where the NDP isn't even close.

[Fake Boris]

More important: if it's a scheme, the NDP probably can't fund it on its own.

[Fake Boris]

Back to the topic wrt Harper.

The issue isn't with him personally; it's that ~1% is voting right of him, and ~60% left of him.

Canada can only give a majority to a red tory.

[KrazyHorse]

The poll identified itself as "Ekos".

I suppose they would have the legal means to sue usurpation of their name.

Note that I live in a riding where the NDP isn't even close.

The "question" you describe would not be used by any polling organization with even the slightest interest in maintaining its reputation.