WikiLeaks' First Scalp -- Tunisia

[N35t0r]

ORACLE!

[MOBIUS]

Yeah, I can kinda see him doing that: [creepy voice]I assure you, Mubarak is quite safe from your rebel friends here.[/cv] Can't you?

[Wezil]

Unlike you, I don't have ego issues, it seems. I told you where to find the information and you stuck your head in the sand.

You are stretching my good will Moby. If YOU make a claim that is absurd it is YOUR duty to support it when called on it. It is not my responsibility to support your points for you. **** off. You failed on this front.

At the time I said it, the momentum was gone. I also said that he'd survived unless he overdid it with his thugs. Well, he overdid it with his thugs and guess what? The pro-democracy side has the momentum again. That possible outcome was soooo difficult to predict, that I had already predicted it!

Ahh, backtracking now. Well done Moby. Very honourable man you are. "I wasn't wrong I was just on my way to being right when you asked. You should have waited a few days".

I still think that there is a significant chance for Mubarak to survive, say 50/50? He's still there now, actually. Besides, the alternative is only going to be Mubarak-lite, so the very best you can hope for is exactly the same government that's currently in power, just without their current figurehead. So Mubarak, or his government - it's certainly not going to be this pie-in-the-sky idealist interim government of pro-democracy factions before proper elections, or whatever it is you're advocating.

Again, since you seem to have a serious comprehension problem - I wasn't advocating anything (I advocate for a living Moby, I know what the word means) I simply said Mubarak cannot last to September as the situation in Egypt was not sustainable as is. You disagreed.

Why not just quote myself? So far everything has come to pass the way I have said it. In fact the reason why you're all over me in this thread like a sex starved horny moose is because I was the only person on poly to predict that this situation in Egypt might even happen and you were the one saying that it would not. What's the matter, did I damage your fragile ego? I can understand your need to get even with me, but you're being really entertainingly childish going about it...

No, I'm all over you because you have been a very condescending *****. Don't worry, I will quote you.

[MOBIUS]

You are stretching my good will Moby. If YOU make a claim that is absurd it is YOUR duty to support it when called on it. It is not my responsibility to support your points for you. **** off. You failed on this front.

On January 29th at 07:27 poly time I gave you the link to my major source of information in reply to one of your posts in Sloww's thread (post #66) - it's all in there. I provided the tools for you, but I'm not going to hold your hand and waste my time over your inability to do even the most basic research...

Ahh, backtracking now. Well done Moby. Very honourable man you are. "I wasn't wrong I was just on my way to being right when you asked. You should have waited a few days".

How can I be guilty of backtracking if I predict something that comes to pass before it actually happens!?

Again, since you seem to have a serious comprehension problem - I wasn't advocating anything (I advocate for a living Moby, I know what the word means) I simply said Mubarak cannot last to September as the situation in Egypt was not sustainable as is. You disagreed.

Of course you are advocating that! You want Mubarak out and for the pro-democracy movement to succeed as quickly as possible. Of course I would disagree as that is surely the route to chaos!

No, I'm all over you because you have been a very condescending *****. Don't worry, I will quote you.

I'm condescending because you are constantly acting like a child whining on how I have to prove in the media something that was obvious when I said it (although I had even predicted this by providing the link days before you actually asked for it... ) and about how you're going to gloat when you think you get to finally prove me wrong - it's embarrassing to see a grown man act in this way...

BTW, um, when was it you said Mubarak was going to leave Egypt again...?

[C0ckney]

now this is quite interesting from the bbc

lets see how this plays out.

Tunisia suspends Ben Ali's RCD party

Tunisia's former governing party is to be suspended and its offices closed, the interior ministry has announced.

In a statement broadcast on state television, the ministry said the ban had been imposed pending a decision on the dissolution of the RCD party.

The announcement came three weeks after protesters ousted President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali.

It came amid fresh clashes at the weekend, in which at least three people were killed in separate incidents.

On Saturday police opened fire on protesters in the north-western town of Kef, killing at least two people. Some reports say four died.

On Sunday protesters set fire to a police station and tried to march on the town prison before troops intervened, the official TAP news agency reported.

Sunday also saw clashes in the central town of Kebili, in which one person was killed. It is believed the victim was hit by a tear gas canister.

Correspondents say that if the Democratic Constitutional Rally (RCD) is dissolved, it would be among the most sweeping moves since Mr Ben Ali's departure.

He fled into exile in Saudi Arabia on 12 January following a month of nationwide anti-government protests. The UN says more than 200 people died in the clashes.

The RCD was the key instrument by which Mr Ben Ali maintained power in Tunisia.

The country is being run by an interim unity government under Prime Minister Mohammed Ghannouchi pending presidential elections due to be held in six to seven months' time.

Tunisia's uprising has inspired protest movements elsewhere in the Arab world, including in Egypt.

[Wezil]

Mopby - F'off. I'm done with your dishonesty. I'll give you your "I told you so you ****ing moron." thread at the appropriate time. Until then you go back where you came from - the ignore list. I gave you a chance to play nice but it just isn't in you. I'm done with you.

[Elok]

You expected Moby to "play nice?" That's just silly.

[Wezil]

Yeah I know.

It is the cite thing that really pissed me off. Like it's my responsibility to go hunting through some web news site that he names but doesn't link to find expression of a position that I don't think is even there in order to prove his point. What an idiot.

[MOBIUS]

Good grief, you're such a whiny cry baby...

Just who is it that's not playing nice here!?

I've been perfectly civil to you right up to when you started screaming "cite" like a spoiled brat that wants his sweeties.

I gave you my reasons, which were clear for all to see, but you wouldn't accept them, I replied to all your points exhaustively and in a civil manner and your reply was to start saying bull****, calling me dishonest and boasting about how you are going to create a special thread of my quotes to pwn me with when Mubarak fell (still in office, last I checked). Yes, very mature, Wezil.

So, like a parent scolding a naughty child, I decided that I would continue to withhold my sweets because you clearly didn't deserve them. So you lost your temper and threw your toys out of your pram by slapping me with that most arrogantly impotent of actions - the ignore list! The mere thought that I should give a **** that you're banning yourself from reading my posts...

Anyway, I realise one should never give in to spoiled brats, but then you're not going to read this so:

There was this small period of time where the protest in Tahrir Square seemed to have reached a stalemate and Mubarak had made his speech. It seemed as though many people had been appeased and started leaving the square - or had switched side...

All these are quotes from the website link I'd previously given you on the day in question:

After a week in the headlights, the regime is showing signs of regaining its nerve and assembling a strategy to overcome its perilous predicament. Whether it can work is another matter.

The survival plan centres on Omar Suleiman, who is head of intelligence, Mubarak's close confidant, and the newly installed vice-president. Right now Suleiman is the most powerful man in Egypt, backed by the military (from which he hails), the security apparatus, and a frightened ruling elite hoping to salvage something from the wreckage.

Suleiman is, in effect, heading a junta of former or acting military officers. Mubarak has been reduced to a figurehead, sheltering behind this clique. But they will not humiliate him. There will be no ignominious flight to Saudi Arabia, like that of Tunisia's deposed president, Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali.

Mubarak's fate aside, the regime may also be hoping that recent lawlessness and looting will convince people, particularly Cairo's middle-class, that revolution is too risky and that the protesters have made their point. Likewise, rising food and fuel prices, shortages, lost earnings, closed businesses, falling exports and reduced tourism caused by the unrest will have a growing impact on working people if they persist with street action.

"It's window dressing" protester Ayman Farag says of Mubarak's concessions. Speaking from Tahrir square Farag, a 32-year-old journalist, describes splits among the protesters about what to do next and a change in the mood since Mubarak's statement.

"There are divisions, that's the fear, numbers are going to go down," he said. "People are going to say 'we have achieved something - Gamal Mubarak won't succeed the throne and Hosni is definitely going'. Unfortunately that's not enough because we can't trust this regime, this president. It's all window dressing."

Some of the pro-Mubarak supporters have been bussed-in, but others have switched sides, Peter Beaumont reports.

"I've just been talking to two guys who were with the demonstrators in Tahrir square, and they have changed sides. What they are saying is 'Mubarak has made all the concessions that people are asking for, therefore we should give him time.

"There are certainly people who now, after eight days of demonstrations, are sufficiently concerned to have come over to the pro-Mubarak camp.

"They are chanting Baradei, Baradei get out."

others have switched sides - audio

Some signs of normality have returned to Egypt. Internet restrictions have been lifted, al-Jazeera is available again, and the curfew has been eased.

A lot of people talking on the street, saying that this is good enough, & we shouldn't forget what Mubarak did for us. The Irony baffles me.

Pro-Mubarak supporters claim if there are one million against Mubarak there are 80 million backing him, al-Jazeera reports.

It is showing live pictures of several thousands of the regime's supporters at a rally in Cairo.

It was only for a couple of hours, but as I said at the time, it seemed like he was home free unless he overdid it with his thugs...

I feel dirty for allowing myself to be bullied by Wezil's childish tactics, but then I am heartened by the fact that he won't be reading this...

[Wezil]

MOBIUS

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Emperor
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[MOBIUS]

Far be it from me to point out the irony of the above post!

Such. A. Baby.

[Hauldren Collider]

MOBIUS

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[Wezil]

Believe it or not he is the only person in 10+ years to go on that list.

Moby managed to get listed twice now.

[MOBIUS]

I love how you're casting yourself as the victim in all this, when you're the one who started being rude and abusive after your childish little ego got crushed.

I guess you're just running away behind the safety of your ignore list cos you just can't deal with the truth...