Sudan Split - yes or no?

[OneFootInTheGrave]

http://www.sudantribune.com/SPLM-s-Amum-calls-on-Warrap,37507

Amum, a senior member of the SPLM, which controls affairs of the Juba based regional Government of Southern Sudan, was addressing a large crowd gathered at Kuacjok town, capital of Warrap State on Wednesday.

He urged registered voters to safely keep their registration cards in readiness for the plebiscite. A turnout of over 60% of registered voters in needed for the vote to be valid under the referendum law passed by the Sudanese National Assembly.

The referendum is a key part of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement between, former southern rebels the SPLM and the Khartoum-based National Congress Party after over two decades of civil war.
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Last week Sudanese President and head of the NCP, Omar Hassan al-Bashir said that he would recognize the result of the referendum, which will take place 9 to 15 January.

Looking good to me, I think that anything other than a vote for split would be a huge suprise... as usual we will see over next week what the people decide, and even more importantly how this gets implemented in the follow up.

[Japher]

A referendum = plebiscite = ballot question

[Wezil]

I can't see the north losing 80-90% of their oil resources without wide scale violence. This will get very ugly in the next few months.

[DanS]

Not only yes, but HELL YES!

[DaShi]

Great another split country to guarantee destabilization for generations to come.

[Wezil]

It's actually a good idea that for many reasons should be more stabilizing over the long term. Sudan has a history of being anything but stable. It's the short term that will be more problematic.

[Heraclitus]

Not only yes, but HELL YES!

+1


Secession and self determination

[Wezil]

From the ashes of war, a fledgling nation is about to be born: the 193rd country in the world, by United Nations count.

A referendum beginning Sunday is almost certain to approve independence for southern Sudan, symbolically ending its 50-year torment of war and hunger. But the voting is the easy part. In the 21st century, how do you negotiate the peaceful breakup of a giant African country, avoiding a myriad of potential flashpoints?

When the referendum is over, Sudanese negotiators will have six months to finesse the sticky questions of how to divide Africa’s biggest country. There are dozens of complexities that will need to be resolved, from citizenship and currency to disputed borders and the divvying-up of the national debt and the lucrative oil wealth.

And it is all supposed to be done by July 9, when the current peace agreement expires. That’s the day when southern Sudan is planning to declare its independence, even if the disputes are not settled by then.

The south will have no patience for long negotiations. Its people are already counting on secession. “Bye Bye Khartoum,” says one of the posters in the southern capital, Juba, accompanied by a skull-and-crossbones image that alludes to the 2.5 million people who were killed in decades of civil war between the north and south.

But there is no guarantee that the north will co-operate in negotiating secession. Talks are badly stalled on several key issues, including the fate of the crucial oil-producing border region of Abyei. At least six sections of the border are still contested, and Abyei has cancelled its planned referendum on whether to join the north or the south.

Northern negotiators, who are supposed to spend a week in Juba every month to work on the disagreements, often return home after just a few hours of talks, according to sources close to the negotiations.

Oil revenue, which is crucial to the northern and southern governments, is currently divided on a 50-50 basis. The south wants 80 per cent of the oil revenue, calculating that 80 per cent of the oil reserves are in the south, even though the pipeline goes northward to a northern port and refinery. The north has refused to indicate what percentage of the oil revenue it wants, making it difficult to negotiate a deal, southern officials say.

When the peace agreement was signed, the south accepted a 50-50 split of the oil revenue “because we were buying our freedom,” says Michael Makuei Lueth, a senior cabinet minister in southern Sudan who participates in the negotiations with the north.

“It was a temporary arrangement,” he said in an interview. “It is one of the burning issues now.”

Issues such as oil and Abyei will be difficult to settle by the deadline, he acknowledged. “Of course we won’t get everything resolved before July 9.”

Wolfram Lacher, a researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, says there is “significant divergence” between the two sides on how to split the oil revenue. “Should either side use the instruments of pressure available in this area – such as a temporary export blockage by the north – this could potentially trigger war,” he wrote in a recent analysis.

At the same time, Khartoum seems to have “gradually resigned itself” to the south’s secession, he said. “For the central government, the costs of preventing secession by force would be prohibitive, such as in the form of deepening international isolation and the emergence of a second front, in addition to Darfur,” he said.

Thabo Mbeki, the former South African president who is now a senior envoy in Sudan’s north-south negotiations, is optimistic that the two sides will learn to co-exist peacefully after the referendum. The north and south have already agreed to work together to build “two viable states” if the south votes for secession, he said in a speech in Juba on Friday.

He called for a “soft border” between the two sides, and a “special relationship of good neighbourliness” across this border.

“The self-determination of the southern Sudanese people is a cause for celebration across Africa,” he said. He described the referendum as the beginning of “the true emancipation of the people of southern Sudan.”

The main spokesman for the southern government, Information Minister Barnaba Marial Benjamin, said the negotiations on disputed issues could continue after the south declares its independence in July. “We’ve agreed with Khartoum that the spirit of dialogue should continue,” he said in an interview. “We’ll be friendly neighbours. The chances of war are remote. People will be surprised – there will be no violence after this referendum.”

Khartoum has an incentive to recognize the south’s independence after the referendum, since this will pave the way for an agreement on oil-sharing and other key issues, he said.

There are reports, too, that Khartoum could receive a major package of concessions from the United States – perhaps even the lifting of U.S. sanctions against it – if it allows the south to secede peacefully. Those concessions could be a tempting prize for the north as it debates whether to accept the referendum results.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/africa-mideast/problems-remain-in-splitting-a-nation-like-sudan/article1862404/

[SlowwHand]

So it's OK for them? You got some 'splainin' to do, Lucy.

[Provost Harrison]

Who's Lucy?

[Wezil]

I think Sloww finds it an injustice that posters would support independence for southern Sudan but don't support the aims and goals of the Confederacy.

A big difference of course is that southern Sudanese are/were being made into slaves (literally) while the Confederacy was doing the slaving. It's hard to argue Texan's human rights were being violated by the Feds.

[Provost Harrison]

Well this is just a matter of one sh*thole becoming two sh*tholes...does the world really need any more sh*tholes?

[Wezil]

The amount of **** isn't changing. It's just being reorganized.

[Wezil]

I'm curious to know how many posters answering "yes" to this question are prepared to see troops from their nation sent to Sudan to see it through.

[Wezil]

At least nine people have died during attacks on southern Sudanese troops, ahead of a referendum on secession in the south.

Gunmen targeted the Southern Peoples' Liberation Army, or SPLA, late Friday and early Saturday in the oil-rich Unity state.

Southern army spokesman Col. Philip Aguer said forces loyal to rebel leader Gatluak Gai attacked SPLA forces in an oil-rich area bordering northern Sudan.

Aguer said six rebels died in the exchanges. It's not clear whether the other casualties were part of the southern Sudanese military.
Independent south would be unable to cope, president warns

For days, Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir has been taking a conciliatory tone about the referendum. Under international pressure to keep tensions low, he has been saying the northern-based government in Khartoum would accept the results of the referendum.

However, in an interview with Al-Jazeera TV on Friday, he issued dire warnings about the fate of southern Sudan should it choose to separate.

Al-Bashir said the south "does not have the ability to provide for its citizens or create a state or authority."

He further warned of instability and possible war in the oil-rich border city of Abyei should the referendum pass.

Voting begins on Sunday and will last a week.

The vote will decide whether to draw a border between the north, where mostly Arab and Muslim people live, and the south, populated mostly by blacks who are Christian or follow traditional animist beliefs.

The vote was called for in the 2005 peace agreement that ended 21 years of north-south civil war in the African nation.

A simple majority must vote for independence for the reference to pass, and at least 60 per cent of the nearly four million registered voters must cast ballots.

The southern Sudanese have long complained they have been discriminated against by Khartoum and are expected to vote overwhelmingly in favour of separation.

Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2011/0...#ixzz1ASIeyqkf