The Dear Leader is playing with his artillery

[Wezil]

It is not like they are not already living in hell.

Deliver them from life

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korean_famine

[Whoha]

Btw, as an aside...

It isn't certain Seoul has to get flattened. NK publicly stated last summer that they consider the ceasefire to no longer be in effect (see the sinking of the ship and recent artillery attacks as evidence they mean it). I say take them at their word.

How long would it take for an all out air strike to destroy the NK artillery positions? Can we get most of them before they even have a chance to fire? I know of no international rules of war that say you have to wait for your declared enemy to strike first.

It would have to be a nuclear first strike to have any hope of stopping that. The artillery aren't just sitting out in the open.

[Wezil]

No, I doubt they would be sitting in the open. I also doubt they are completely unknown to us.

It would be unlikely to get all of them but how about most? Does Seoul really have to be "flattened"? The ones we miss on first strike would reveal themselves quickly when they started firing.

[Hauldren Collider]

I'd hope because they're far more likely to nuke the world than Iran is.

But they already have nukes; it's a bit too late to try to stop them now.

[DaShi]

China to be the big winner in this!!!

China Could Be the Big Winner Amid Korean Tensions
By VISHESH KUMAR

The mysterious North Korean regime managed to rattle markets again this week. Markets sold off Tuesday after a volley of artillery fire killed two South Korean marines and set houses ablaze in the most flagrant act of provocation since Pyongyang had a South Korean naval vessel torpedoed last March.

Analysts are scrambling to decipher North Korea's motives. The most likely scenario is that the regime wants to get attention and draw world powers to the bargaining table where it can extract more concessions.

But for investors, a more consequential dynamic may be taking shape behind the scenes. The latest episode follows several hectic months in Asia where China's expanding economic might is quickly leading it to take center stage in regional politics. Ultimately, the showdown may boost Beijing's role as power broker in the region and could strengthen its hand when it comes to increasingly tense economic relations with the United States.

Geopolitical Issues

China has a complicated relationship with North Korea and the extent of Beijing's direct influence has been hotly debated. China provides plenty of symbolic support along with necessities like food and fuel.

But Pyongyang may ultimately have more leverage. A collapse in North Korea would eliminate an important buffer zone and could allow U.S. troops to easily reach its southern along with unleashing a refugee crisis.

Analysts note that China seemed genuinely surprised by the recent barrage, and the North Korean move comes ahead of high-level meetings between China and the U.S.

"China is, no doubt, embarrassed by North Korean provocations in advance of President Hu Jintao's mid-January visit to Washington," analysts at political risk consultancy The Eurasia Group wrote in a note to clients. "Worse, the incident has again shown that Beijing is either unable or unwilling to restrain Pyongyang."

But as the U.S. and China compete for influence in the region, the development could give Beijing an advantage nonetheless. So far, China has remained supportive of North Korea, much as it was in March even as international outrage mounted over the sinking of the South Korean naval vessel.

The United States, after all, has limited means of influencing North Korean aggression and must use China as an intermediary. And along with South Korea, any exchange will serve as a litmus test for the ability of the U.S. to support the interests of other regional allies like Taiwan and Japan.

Tensions Rising

China, meanwhile, has plenty of concessions to seek in exchange for pressuring Pyongyang. Tensions have been escalating lately, with the U.S. becoming increasingly aggressive about the jobs that China's undervalued currency allows it to siphon off. At the same time, China complains that the U.S. is pursuing manipulative policies that could lead to inflation in the developing world.

Japan, another U.S. ally, has also seen rapidly escalating tensions with China. Earlier this month, Japan dispatched troops to disputed islands in the East China Sea that may be rich in natural resources. The move follows a bitter showdown after a Chinese fishing boat rammed a Japanese naval vessel and China informally clamped down on vital rare earth metal exports to Japan.

That, in turn, led to a new collaboration between Japan and India in the development and reuse of rare earth metals. This week, Japan's largest importer of rare earth metals turned to an Australian company to form a "strategic alliance" to secure future supply. Beijing's moves, in other words, are having a rippling effect across the region.

The rapid rise in the Chinese economy was accompanied by much wishful thinking. An ideal trading partner that was almost fused with America, China wished only to keep its factories humming as its wealth expanded, according to the popular view that emphasizes China's "peaceful rise."

But Beijing is proving itself shrewd rather than docile on the international stage time and again. And it will likely look to further its own agenda as tensions mount again on the Korean peninsula.

See full article from DailyFinance: http://srph.it/gcQyPs

No wonder this guy was kicked off the WSJ.

[Whoha]

No, I doubt they would be sitting in the open. I also doubt they are completely unknown to us.

It would be unlikely to get all of them but how about most? Does Seoul really have to be "flattened"? The ones we miss on first strike would reveal themselves quickly when they started firing.

We know that they are dug into mountains and that conventional strikes are simply not going to cut it. Either direct nuclear force, or enhanced radiation weaponry are going to be required to prevent any of them at all from firing. Getting them after they have fired could also be difficult if they wheel back into the cave. And finally our intelligence is not omniscient, Saddam had good success hiding scud launchers.

The Anti-artillery laser stuff might also be worthwhile, but I think we are still just testing that.

[Wezil]

A reasonable argument. I make no claims to being a military weapons expert.

I do think the damage could be reduced (debate extent here) if we act first rather than wait for the "flattening" to begin before we act.

[Whoha]

Obviously, if we let those artillery fire Seoul = Gone even if we use nuclear weapons. The North Koreans are believed to have chemical and biological rounds in addition to other ammunition.

[Hauldren Collider]

I wonder if it would be possible to stage some sort of coup and get the military to surrender. Take out the leaders, assume control, disband? I can't think of any other way to avoid Seoul getting pwned.

[Asher]

But they already have nukes; it's a bit too late to try to stop them now.

Why do you feel it's impossible now?

[Whoha]

I wonder if it would be possible to stage some sort of coup and get the military to surrender. Take out the leaders, assume control, disband? I can't think of any other way to avoid Seoul getting pwned.

All roads that lead to Seoul maybe not getting pwned pass through China. Unfortunately, China will not act as long as they perceive us to be a paper tiger. Even more unfortunately, the only way to prove we aren't is to precipitate that which we wish to avoid, at which point it would be a little late for China to intervene.

[Egbert]

I wonder if it would be possible to stage some sort of coup and get the military to surrender. Take out the leaders, assume control, disband? I can't think of any other way to avoid Seoul getting pwned.

Apparently it is extremely difficult to get any kind of meaningful human intelligence in North Korea. Every foreigner is watched constantly and closely (apparently much closer than foreigners were watched in the Soviet Union). Apparently the North Korean citizenry find it frightening to be seen talking to a foreigner. It would probably be impossible to organise a coup without being in cahoots with local contacts.
Kim Jong Il is very very well guarded. Assassinating him does not seem do-able. He has many hundreds of guards at his house for a start.

[BeBMan]

President Palin would support such a war.

Sarah Palin took a break from her book tour Wednesday to call into Glenn Beck's radio show and weigh in on the recent shelling of a South Korean island by the North Korean military. Unfortunately, a verbal slip-up caused her to urge the U.S. to support an unexpected country.

"But obviously, we've got to stand with our North Korean allies." Palin said in her analysis, before being corrected by the show's co-host. "Yeah. And we're also bound by prudence to stand with our South Korean allies, yes."

To be fair, the mistake appeared to be a case of a verbal stumble -- not actual confusion about which country she was supposed to support.

Earlier, Palin described the situation, saying, "This is stemming from, I think, a greater problem when we're all sitting around asking 'Oh no, what are we gonna do,' and we're not having a lot of faith that the White House is gonna come out with a strong enough policy to sanction what it is that North Korea's gonna do."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/11/24/sarah-palin-north-korea_n_788107.html

Supporting all Koreas in the universe

[Wezil]

I wonder if it would be possible to stage some sort of coup and get the military to surrender. Take out the leaders, assume control, disband? I can't think of any other way to avoid Seoul getting pwned.

I can't help but laugh at this after reading the news this morning.

Apparently the SK Defence Minister has resigned. Your plan is working in reverse.

[onodera]

Apparently it is extremely difficult to get any kind of meaningful human intelligence in North Korea. Every foreigner is watched constantly and closely (apparently much closer than foreigners were watched in the Soviet Union). Apparently the North Korean citizenry find it frightening to be seen talking to a foreigner. It would probably be impossible to organise a coup without being in cahoots with local contacts.
Kim Jong Il is very very well guarded. Assassinating him does not seem do-able. He has many hundreds of guards at his house for a start.

Well, you can assassinate the whole house with a large enough cruise missile and send some seals or whomever to secure the artillery aimed at Seoul. Shells are not magic, they won't level Seoul instantly.
Oh, wait, Americans suck at covert operations.