The Dear Leader is playing with his artillery

[giblets]

The US couldn't handle a conventional war with China? The war ended in a stalemate, not defeat.

[Egbert]

China's military was piss poor in 1950 but they completely overwhelmed the US military in the winter of 1950/51. The People's Liberation Army did not receive aide from the Soviet Union until the fall of 1951 in an attempt to modernize the PLA in the midst of their war with the US. In fact, the Chinese had just formed an Air Force in 1949 and a Navy in 1950 so their military really was a backwards peasant army.

Yet they still came charging across the border and wiped the floor with the US forces. The 2nd Infantry Division was completely decimated and the Eighth Army had the longest retreat in US military history retreating from nearly the Chinese border to below the 38th parallel.

North Korea still exists because frankly, the US military couldn't handle a conventional war with the Chinese back in 1950-53. I shudder to imagine what a war with China in the 2010's would be like.

Is the gap between US military capability and Chinese greater or smaller today than it was in 1950? I'm not so sure that the gap is any greater.

And then the UN forces did push them back.

[Al B. Sure!]

The US couldn't handle a conventional war with China? The war ended in a stalemate, not defeat.

Exactly. A stalemate against a peasant army with antiquated weapons and no real military organization that used human wave tactics (complete with looting of American equipment).

[Al B. Sure!]

Remember this is immediately after WW2. The US military consisted of veterans of Europe and the Pacific. It was the best fighting force in the world at the time, bar none, and was working in coordination with a large multi-national UN force.

Consider, General MacArthur and the Joint Chiefs deemed it necessary to use nukes on the Chinese to slow them. Fortunately, Truman would have none of that. But the fact that the Joint Chiefs' recommendation was that drastic is very telling about what they thought the US military capabilities were against the Chinese in Korea.

[Hauldren Collider]

Exactly. A stalemate against a peasant army with antiquated weapons and no real military organization that used human wave tactics (complete with looting of American equipment).

The difference between then and now is the US's tremendous strategic bombing ability and massive air superiority, which if my understanding of history is correct is something we did not have in the Korean War.

Also I doubt the human wave, even if China could pull it off without public backlash, would be an effective tactic against modern technology.

[Egbert]

It could be a humungous war, trashing the Korean peninsular. China and USA would both be very keen to avoid such an expensive, destructive and perhaps pointless war, not to mention picking up the pieces afterwards. I should be surprised if either side wanted to widen the war by attacking Chinese or US territory but there may be battles at sea.

It could widen and get totally out of hand.

[giblets]

I imagine South Korea would be keen on avoiding it too. I guess HC's question has been answered.

[DaShi]

President Palin would support such a war.

[Hauldren Collider]

I suppose it's impossible to speculate but I would wager that if there were a war between the north and the south and China didn't back up the north, the north would lose extremely quickly.

South Korea is eventually going to have to do something about North Korea, and I don't think delaying has done them a whole lot of good.

[Egbert]

and Seoul would get flattened either way.

[Al B. Sure!]

The difference between then and now is the US's tremendous strategic bombing ability and massive air superiority, which if my understanding of history is correct is something we did not have in the Korean War.

Also I doubt the human wave, even if China could pull it off without public backlash, would be an effective tactic against modern technology.

HC, military stuff is clearly not your forte

Okay, one, the US had tremendous strategic bombing ability beyond any other nation on the planet (the bombings of Germany and Japan should clue you in).

The Soviet-made MiG-15's were superior to the American F-86 Sabres but the American pilots were worlds better than North Korean and Chinese pilots, although comparable to the Soviet Russian pilots. Still, with the majority of opposition pilots being NK and Chinese, MiG's were falling out the sky.

By the end of hostilities, F-86 pilots were credited with shooting down 792 MiGs for a loss of only 78 Sabres, a victory ratio of 10:1.

And obviously China wouldn't be using human wave tactics now. That's my point. They have modernized and caught up. I doubt the gap between US military effectiveness and Chinese is any bigger than it was in 1950; I imagine the gap is far far smaller.

If they could smack us around with a peasant army in 1950, I can't imagine what they could do to us now.

[Elok]

By the by, is anybody giving odds on the possibility that Kim Jong Un turns out to be not a total ****ing loon like his forebears? Because the only happy ending I see to this is NK deciding to cut the crap.

[Egbert]

I don't think anybody knows anything about Kim Jong Un. I looked him up on that internet thingy (including BBC etc) and all I could find out was
- went to school in Switserland under a fake name
- thought to be a about 27 ish (even his age is secret)
- he is the "Brilliant Comrade"

[Heraclitus]

Umh. I imagine the Chinese would be very interested in that base being totally closed and staying totally closed. Wouldn't want a superpower having military stuff on their border. Perhaps if China had sufficient assurances, and trusted those assurances, they might be more relaxed about reunification. Dunno.

You mean like the assurances given to the Soviet Union as it retreated from eastern Europe? Also HC if the US hasn't left Germany what are the odds of a reduced US presence in Korea should it be unified?

[Al B. Sure!]

What would concern me is that his two older brothers were both briefly the heir apparent but fell out of favor with their father. What's with the youngest son that makes him Kim's favorite?