How are YOU telling BP to go **** itself?

[Flubber]

The politicians aren't making the perception here. The BP CEO is doing a helluva job at it on his own.

People sometimes work more than 60 days straight. It doesn't kill them. I have done so at times. Politicians do it routinely. Even if politicians were creating the perception, "give the guy a break, he's under lots of pressure" would be a laughable response.

Its all perception.

The reality for a ceo is that after he has mobolized his teams and given a bunch of marching orders, there are times when there is very little for a ceo to do that is productive.

So time off is appropriate and does not diminish BPs response one little bit. If he stayed at home and relaxed there wouldn't be an outcry. But going to a yatch race ( and could there be any more obvious example of wealth and entitlement that yatching) just struck a wrong chord.

In many ways it was an eminently stupid thing to do when following his " want my life back" comment. The public and media doesn't care about the problems of a multimillionare ceo. They really do not care.

But the media does see a "good" photo op when it sees one so a shot of the ceo sipping champagne or whatever while oil continues to roll asshore has connotations of "fiddling while Rome burns".

The message from BP should be that they are working tirlessly and employing EVERY resource to try to end this catastophe. Images of the ceo vacationing detracts a lot from this message.

[Asher]

I don't think it was inappropriate or unexpected, but the response was expected for sure. I think it shows he's simply not a very bright man.

Bunker down, stay out of sight til it's resolved.

[Hauldren Collider]

You know, he might be a brilliant CEO and just a terrible politician. I can forgive him for that.

[Asher]

A good CEO understands the basics of perception, politics, and image.

[Drake Tungsten]

If he were a good CEO, he wouldn't be stuck running a British company.

[Asher]

[Al B. Sure!]

BP dipped today... back in at 29.50 and closed my short positions.

Anyone have thoughts on playing BP?

[KrazyHorse]

Why not just go to a casino?

[Al B. Sure!]

There is a House which all the games are skewed in favor of.

[Hauldren Collider]

Uh, not really.

[Al B. Sure!]

Uh... yes really.

House Advantage

Casino games generally provide a predictable long-term advantage to the casino, or "house", while offering the player the possibility of a large short-term payout. Some casino games have a skill element, where the player makes decisions; such games are called "random with a tactical element." While it is possible through skillful play to minimize the house advantage, it is extremely rare that a player has sufficient skill to completely eliminate his inherent long-term disadvantage (the house edge or house vigorish) in a casino game. Such a skill set would involve years of training, an extraordinary memory and numeracy, and/or acute visual or even aural observation, as in the case of wheel clocking in Roulette.
The player's disadvantage is a result of the casino not paying winning wagers according to the game's "true odds", which are the payouts that would be expected considering the odds of a wager either winning or losing. For example, if a game is played by wagering on the number that would result from the roll of one die, true odds would be 6 times the amount wagered since there is a 1 in 6 chance of any single number appearing. However, the casino may only pay 5 times the amount wagered for a winning wager.
The house edge (HE) or vigorish is defined as the casino profit expressed as a percentage of the player's original bet. (In games such as Blackjack or Spanish 21, the final bet may be several times the original bet, if the player double and splits.)
Example: In American Roulette, there are two zeroes and 36 non-zero numbers (18 red and 18 black). If a player bets $1 on red, his chance of winning $1 is therefore 18/38 and his chance of losing $1 (or winning -$1) is 20/38.
The player's expected value, EV = (18/38 x 1) + (20/38 x -1) = 18/38 - 20/38 = -2/38 = -5.26%. Therefore, the house edge is 5.26%. After 10 rounds, play $1 per round, the average house profit will be 10 x $1 x 5.26% = $0.53. Of course, it is not possible for the casino to win exactly 53 cents; this figure is the average casino profit from each player if it had millions of players each betting 10 rounds at $1 per round.
The house edge of casino games vary greatly with the game. Keno can have house edges up to 25%, slot machines can have up to 15%, while most Australian Pontoon games have house edges between 0.3% and 0.4%.
The calculation of the Roulette house edge was a trivial exercise; for other games, this is not usually the case. Combinatorial analysis and/or computer simulation is necessary to complete the task.
In games which have a skill element, such as Blackjack or Spanish 21, the house edge is defined as the house advantage from optimal play (without the use of advanced techniques such as card counting), on the first hand of the shoe (the container that holds the cards). The set of the optimal plays for all possible hands is known as "basic strategy" and is highly dependent on the specific rules, and even the number of decks used. Good Blackjack and Spanish 21 games have house edges below 0.5%.

Standard deviation
The luck factor in a casino game is quantified using standard deviations (SD). The standard deviation of a simple game like Roulette can be calculated using the binomial distribution. In the binomial distribution, SD = sqrt (npq ), where n = number of rounds played, p = probability of winning, and q = probability of losing. The binomial distribution assumes a result of 1 unit for a win, and 0 units for a loss, rather than -1 units for a loss, which doubles the range of possible outcomes. Furthermore, if we flat bet at 10 units per round instead of 1 unit, the range of possible outcomes increases 10 fold.
SD (Roulette, even-money bet) = 2b sqrt(npq ), where b = flat bet per round, n = number of rounds, p = 18/38, and q = 20/38.
For example, after 10 rounds at $1 per round, the standard deviation will be 2 x 1 x sqrt(10 x 18/38 x 20/38) = $3.16. After 10 rounds, the expected loss will be 10 x $1 x 5.26% = $0.53. As you can see, standard deviation is many times the magnitude of the expected loss.
The range is six times the standard deviation: three above the mean, and three below. Therefore, after 10 rounds betting $1 per round, your result will be somewhere between -$0.53 - 3 x $3.16 and -$0.53 + 3 x $3.16, i.e., between -$10.01 and $8.95. (There is still a 0.1% chance that your result will exceed a $8.95 profit, and a 0.1% chance that you will lose more than $10.01.) This demonstrates how luck can be quantified; we know that if we walk into a casino and bet $5 per round for a whole night, we are not going to walk out with $500.
The standard deviation for Pai Gow poker is the lowest out of all common casinos . Many , particularly slots, have extremely high standard deviations. As the size of the potential payouts increase, so does the standard deviation.
As the number of rounds increases, eventually, the expected loss will exceed the standard deviation, many times over. From the formula, we can see the standard deviation is proportional to the square root of the number of rounds played, while the expected loss is proportional to the number of rounds played. As the number of rounds increases, the expected loss increases at a much faster rate. This is why it is impossible for a gambler to win in the long term. It is the high ratio of short-term standard deviation to expected loss that fools gamblers into thinking that they can win.
It is important for a casino to know both the house edge and variance for all of their games. The house edge tells them what kind of profit they will make as percentage of turnover, and the variance tells them how much they need in the way of cash reserves. The mathematicians and computer programmers that do this kind of work are called gaming mathematicians and gaming analysts. Casinos do not have in-house expertise in this field, so outsource their requirements to experts in the gaming analysis field, such as Mike Shackleford, the "Wizard of Odds".

[KrazyHorse]

There is a House which all the games are skewed in favor of.

There's one here too. Mine.

EDIT: or have you not noticed that there are brokerage fees, bid/ask spreads, etc?

[Al B. Sure!]

There's one here too. Mine.

EDIT: or have you not noticed that there are brokerage fees, bid/ask spreads, etc?

That's different from a casino's payout schedule and you know it, KH.

[KrazyHorse]

How much different? The house takes 3% of your initial bet on a game in which your variance is approximately the size of your initial bet (roulette). How much was your brokerage fee? How long did you hold BP for? What was the implied vol over that time period?

[KrazyHorse]

Short term equity one delta trades on moderate amounts probably compare fairly badly with roulette...