Graduate schools base decisions on 3 factors:
GPA
Undergrad research (gives letters of recommendation)
Physics GRE
3.5/4.0 GPA, 1-2 summers of research (with good impressions from profs) and a 80+ percentile score in the GRE will get him into a top 10 school. 2/3 of those (assuming the missing element is not horrendously bad) will get him into top 20. Outside the top 20 things start to go rapidly downhill in terms of post-PhD career (either academic or nonacademic).
As an example, my undergrad GPA was ~3.3 (admittedly, in a more difficult than average degree for physicists), GRE was 91st percentile and I had decent to good undergrad research. Ended up at a school that's currently 10th-15th in my estimate.
GPA
Undergrad research (gives letters of recommendation)
Physics GRE
3.5/4.0 GPA, 1-2 summers of research (with good impressions from profs) and a 80+ percentile score in the GRE will get him into a top 10 school. 2/3 of those (assuming the missing element is not horrendously bad) will get him into top 20. Outside the top 20 things start to go rapidly downhill in terms of post-PhD career (either academic or nonacademic).
As an example, my undergrad GPA was ~3.3 (admittedly, in a more difficult than average degree for physicists), GRE was 91st percentile and I had decent to good undergrad research. Ended up at a school that's currently 10th-15th in my estimate.
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