CanPol - Alberta edition

[Asher]

Wildrose vs Tories isn't a matter of far right vs right. It's two right-wing parties, one with libertarian leanings and the other with US Republican-styled leanings. You'd have me to believe the Libertarian leanings are the worst of the bunch, and I could not disagree more.

The Tories have fiscally mismanaged the province for far too long. They tried everything in their playbook to fight and ban gay marriage already, so the fearmongering that the Wildrose alliance may try it makes me claw my eyes out. Look at the legislation the Tories proposed in 2000/2001 trying to ban gay marriage.

You're defending a socially conservative, fiscally irresponsible party here in the face of a socially libertarian, fiscally responsible party.

[notyoueither]

I'm not convinced the Wildrose is really to the right. In a lot of ways they're the same thing, but more reasonable.

We'll see. Not too closely would be my hope.

[notyoueither]

If you haven't already noticed, Ben and Friends are terrified of Wildrose and are big Tory supporters.


I'd take Smith over Stelmach any day. I'm also very, very much aware of the bands of cretins standing behind Stelmach, who himself is a cretin. Your picture of the Wildrose party being a bunch of crazies hiding behind a reasonable leader is absurd given that the Tories are a bunch of crazies hiding behind a bland crazy.

That's strange. Many of them are the same people who sat in caucus and around the cabinet table with Ralph.

I wouldn't call them crazy, but I also wouldn't have voted for them for quite some time. You?

[notyoueither]

Wildrose vs Tories isn't a matter of far right vs right. It's two right-wing parties, one with libertarian leanings and the other with US Republican-styled leanings. You'd have me to believe the Libertarian leanings are the worst of the bunch, and I could not disagree more.

The Tories have fiscally mismanaged the province for far too long. They tried everything in their playbook to fight and ban gay marriage already, so the fearmongering that the Wildrose alliance may try it makes me claw my eyes out. Look at the legislation the Tories proposed in 2000/2001 trying to ban gay marriage.

You're defending a socially conservative, fiscally irresponsible party here in the face of a socially libertarian, fiscally responsible party.

I'm not defending the Tories.

I am less impressed with WRA though.

[Asher]

For the record, I don't vote for the same reason I don't watch soap operas. They're all the same **** anyway, with too much drama and too much superficiality.

[Dinner]

Not voting is a really dumb idea. When the regular people decide not to vote then only the frothing at the mouth maniacs vote and that causes all sorts of problems.

[Asher]

Not voting is a really dumb idea. When the regular people decide not to vote then only the frothing at the mouth maniacs vote and that causes all sorts of problems.

No, voting is a dumb idea.

Last time I voted federally I was held up for 45 mins while an Elections Canada official used my cell phone to call the regional director and I was warned sternly that if they found out I was committing elections fraud they could imprison me. I was also forced to swear ON A BIBLE ( ) that I was not voting twice, and recite some stupid ****.

It's not worth it, not when they're so ****ing inept. And not when all of the parties equally suck for different reasons.

[Asher]

I should also mention I live in Toronto which means that I'd throw in a protest vote against the overwhelming votes for the Liberals or NDP. The only difference my vote would make is a $2 contribution to annoying-as-**** political ads.

[notyoueither]

NYE, they are pro-abortion, pro-gay marriage folks. What more do they have to do to be social liberals?

The tories had a chance with Morton to bail out their sinking ship. Now they are toast. Honest Ed is going to take you all down.

Once again, you have no idea what you are talking about.

[Asher]

Uh-oh Ben. The WRA is growing even without an election.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Calgary+area+MLAs+defect+Wildrose/2403794/story.html

Calgary-area MLAs set to defect to Wildrose

Two Calgary-area Progressive Conservative MLAs in the Stelmach government are crossing the floor to join the upstart Wildrose Alliance, in what is the first set of defections from the Tory party during its 38-year reign over Alberta.

The Wildrose Alliance has called a press conference for today in the city where it will announce Airdrie-Chestermere Tory MLA Rob Anderson and Calgary-Fish Creek PC MLA Heather Forsyth are abandoning the Tories to join the right-of-centre party led by Danielle Smith.

“It’s no surprise to anybody. We’ve known this was going to happen,” said Paul Stanway, communications director for Premier Ed Stelmach.” But we’ll reserve any comment until after their announcement (today).”

The floor-crossings will boost the Wildrose caucus to three MLAs – along with Paul Hinman, who won a September byelection in Calgary-Glenmore – and catapult the small-c conservative alternative past the NDP as the third party in the legislature.

Anderson and Forsyth couldn’t be reached for comment late Sunday, although party sources confirmed they are, indeed, joining the Wildrose Alliance.

“This is the game-changer in terms of the legislature,” reasoned David Taras, political analyst at the University of Calgary.

“There’s the sense that Stelmach is losing control of the government and losing control of the cabinet. People are searching for the life raft. For these two at least, this is their life raft.”

Taras said the loss of two MLAs “is not the end of the world,” but is nevertheless a further blow to a Conservative government that is slowly self-destructing.

The Tory defections come as recent polls have shown Stelmach is the least popular premier in the country and that his PC party has slipped to its lowest public support in 17 years – a distant second behind the Wildrose Alliance.

The moves also come about a week before Stelmach is expected to shuffle his cabinet, part of the changes he promised after receiving a 77 per cent vote of confidence in the Conservative leadership review two months ago.

Anderson is a first-term MLA and member of the government’s powerful Treasury Board committee, while Forsyth is a former cabinet minister who was first elected in 1993.

Both MLAs haven’t been afraid to speak out against the Tory party in recent months, with Anderson – an original member of the government’s so-called Fiscal Four – demanding more fiscal discipline from cabinet and Forsyth criticizing the effects of health care policy decisions on Calgary.

“After being in politics for eight years, nothing surprises me,” Battle River-Wainwright Tory MLA Doug Griffiths, a member of the Fiscal Four, said when hearing two MLAs were bolting the PC caucus. “I’m not the least bit surprised about anything that happens.”

The departures will be a historic event in Alberta.

Alberta MLAs have sometimes been ejected from the Conservative caucus, as Fort McMurray MLA Guy Boutilier was last July. Several former and current Tory cabinet ministers – including Aboriginal Relations Minister Gene Zwozdesky, Stan Woloshyn and Ray Speaker – have left other parties to join the PCs.

But since the Conservatives were first elected in 1971, it’s believed no MLAs in good standing with the Tories have ever left voluntarily to join the caucus of another party (MLA Gary Masyk left the Tories to join the then-Alberta Alliance in 2004 after the government removed his seat from the electoral map).

“I would see it as the beginning of the end for the Conservative party, if it indeed does happen,” said former Bonnyville Tory MLA Ernie Isley, who jumped ship to the Wildrose Alliance because of concerns with Stelmach’s leadership.

“It might be a wise move for some young fiscal conservatives that want a future in politics. The future of the Conservative party is looking awful dismal right now.”

Isley cautioned, though, the Wildrose Alliance must present itself as a viable governing alternative that is just slightly right-of-centre on the political spectrum. The party also must be careful how it manages the crossovers so as not to be painted as a protest party, he argued.

“We need to be moderate ... We can’t be viewed as just a protest fringe movement if we hope to form the government,” he said. “I don’t think they want to just throw their arms open and say that anybody that wants to come can come.”

Taras said the Wildrose Alliance will now have a platform in question period with three MLAs, although Smith must look at getting elected as soon as possible if her party is to be seen as a legitimate alternative to the government.

“There’s going to be a sense she should be in the legislature too,” he said.

Smith and the Wildrose party have been the main beneficiary of sliding government support.

A recent Angus Reid poll of 1,000 decided Alberta voters found the Wildrose party would form the next provincial government if an election were held, nabbing the support of 39 per cent of the electorate. Stelmach’s Progressive Conservatives tied for second with David Swann’s Liberals, with the backing of 25 per cent of decided voters provincewide.

The Tories slipped to third place in the poll in both Calgary and Edmonton amid challenging economic times, and continued public criticism over the government’s financial management, health-care decisions and H1N1 vaccination rollout.

A separate Angus Reid opinion survey showed Stelmach’s approval rating steadily eroded in 2009, plunging from 43 per cent in February to 25 per cent in August and to 14 per cent in November.

The premier, however, has gone on the offensive recently, attacking the Wildrose party for what he said are vague and “draconian” policies.

[Asher]

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fullcomment/archive/2010/01/05/don-martin-leaving-alberta-tories-behind-a-smart-move-for-mlas.aspx

Don Martin: Leaving Alberta Tories behind a smart move for MLAs
Posted: January 05, 2010, 2:37 AM by Daniel Kaszor
Don Martin
Former Alberta premier Ralph Klein credited his political success to figuring out which way the parade was going and getting out in front of it.

In an unprecedented move on Monday, two Alberta Tory backbenchers left what they consider to be the clowns behind, defecting from a wobbling 38-year Progressive Conservative dynasty to join a fledgling one-seat Wildrose Alliance they view as the parade route of the future.

They’re probably right, if not a bit ahead of their time.

Premier Ed Stelmach seems lost in amateur decision making and economic bumbling, adrift in fiscal policy, and unable to connect with urban voters as a steady guy in way over his head as a premier.

The party had a chance to correct its mistake last fall at a leadership vote, but members gave Mr. Stelmach a resounding 77% thumbs-up and free reign for another three years. Coupled with his surprisingly strong majority in the 2008 election, Mr. Stelmach has gone understandably deaf to predictions of his demise and has unleashed a zero-tolerance policy that stomps on any sign of dissent by MLAs.

That has set in motion the first of what some predict will be even more defections if the Wildrose Alliance qualifies for public funding for research and staffing and is able to put on a big show in the legislature this spring.

The Wildrose is now a formidable poll-topping rival with charismatic leader Danielle Smith in charge and a fall byelection victory to the party’s credit.

These two disgruntled MLAs have voted with their feet, walking onto the ground floor of a rising force rather than stick with a sinking party facing an electoral trap door they fear will cast them into oblivion.

The defection of veteran Calgary MLA Heather Forsyth is not particularly surprising. She is a fine MLA who has been around since 1993, but who had been badly bounced from a Cabinet post by Mr. Stelmach. Demotions like that make the siren call of a new party hard to resist.

But rookie Calgary-area MLA Rob Anderson is not so easy to dismiss as a leap of political opportunism.

At age 32, and by all accounts possessing a sharp political mind, the rookie MLA was precisely the sort of principled, level-headed Conservative the party needs. Having sat on the powerful Treasury Board, the former lawyer is armed with enough inside intelligence on Alberta’s sagging fiscal fortunes to make his Question Period attacks on the government very dangerous.

“The current PC party leadership has failed to address my constituents’ concerns and will not permit me to speak publicly about these issues,” said Mr. Anderson, of Airdrie-Chestermere, in explaining his decision to switch parties. “I have no interest in investing any more of my life and taxpayers’ money defending poor public policy that has been developed by a small band of out-of-touch government appointees and insiders.”

Granted, these two turncoats sound a tad self-absorbed, whimpering at the bullies they say run the premier’s office and blaming them for snuffing out the careers of anyone who dares challenge their authority.

But polls show that Alberta voters are way ahead of the Conservative MLAs in writing down Mr. Stelmach and looking with favourable curiosity at the Wildrose. In Calgary and Edmonton ridings, the Conservatives have fallen to an unfathomable third behind the Wildrose and Liberals with Mr. Stelmach’s approval rating flirting dangerously close to single digits.

With a general election potentially three years away, Wildrose leader Ms. Smith has plenty of time to craft strong policy, draft a powerful fundraising team and build a constituency base that will be ready to unleash when the electoral catapult opportunity arrives.

The only opportunity for a faster takedown would be if Monday’s trickle of MLAs abandoning their party turns into a flood of floor-crossers.
If the rumoured Cabinet shuffle next week is merely a revarnishing of the cabinet deadwood, other disgruntled MLAs may opt to escape their doom on a Tory backbench for a fresh start with the Wildrose.

That would mean a troubled leader who won’t ever quit the party could find the party quitting his leadership.
That’s a longshot, of course, but it seems increasingly likely that the only parade Premier Stelmach’s leading is marching over a cliff.

[notyoueither]

Let's just keep jacking up the royalties. LOWEST IN THE WORLD I TELLS YA.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/busines...027/story.html

*cough*

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/economic-revival-sweeping-western-canada/article1439509/

Economic revival sweeping Western Canada
New deals in energy sector touted as sparkplug to ‘lead the country out of the recession'

Nathan VanderKlippe
Calgary — Globe and Mail Update

Mere months after Alberta took the crown as Canada's fastest-growing home to the unemployed, the province finds itself at the heart of an economic revival that is sweeping Western Canada.

Confidence has come roaring back to the resource sector that dominates the western provinces, as new hope for global economic growth fuels optimism that the see-saw of the past few years has given way to a more stable future for crude, metals and fertilizer.

All of that has translated into a sudden upshift on the levers of investment in Western Canada, as corporate leaders who have spent the past year biding their time and refining their plans now move billions of dollars to seize a moment for which they've been waiting. The latest came Thursday, when Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. CNQ-T said it is nearing a major new spending outlay in the oil sands.

“The West is on fire,” said Adam Waterous, Scotia Capital's Calgary-based head of global investment banking. “It's fantastic news for the country. These are big, big projects that are going to get developed. And there's no question that the West is going to lead the country out of the recession.”

The change has been propelled largely by signs of an economic recovery and forecasts of accelerating growth, which all point to renewed demand for the products the West has to offer.

“The industry is starting to accept that we are through the dip,” said Steve Spence, president of Osum Oil Sands Corp., which said this week that it has sought the province's regulatory nod for a 35,000 barrel-per-day oil sands project. “Not that things have gone crazy again, but that it's safe to start moving projects forward.”

Osum's project was just one in a string of high-profile announcements this week, which together have been industry's way of saying “We're back,” said David McColl, research director at the Canadian Energy Research Institute.

Energy executives were mindful of the sustained oil rally during year-end board meetings, a time of year when important development decisions are often made.

Oil has now traded at higher than $70 (U.S.) a barrel for more than six months. The stability has sparked a rebound the oil sands industry, which a year ago was suffering so badly that Suncor Energy Inc. posted its first red ink in nearly two decades.

Now, new projects have come flooding back. This week alone, Husky Energy Inc. and BP PLC have pressed ahead with their $2.5-billion Sunrise project; ConocoPhillips Co. and Total SA revealed an 83,000 barrel-a-day expansion of their Surmont project, estimated at $1.5-billion; and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. said it hopes to announce an expansion of its Horizon mine by year-end.

Still, some worry about a return of the problems seen during the boom, such as soaring costs for labour and materials.

“We're in kind of a sweet spot right now, where we're seeing a nice, steady but maintainable stream of projects coming online,” ATB Financial senior economist Todd Hirsch said. “But by May and June, if [companies] are all starting to pile in again, costs are going to get way out of reach for these guys and it will be the same thing all over again.”

And some key areas are still weak. Natural gas prices are below levels many companies require for solid profits, undermining what has long been a bedrock of the Alberta economy.

The resource industry is betting, however, most commodity prices will remain firm. In B.C., a mining boom has been pumped up by solid gold and copper prices, a key environmental approval last week and the ongoing construction of the province's first new mine in a decade.

“The story is really the return of robust demand out of Asia, primarily for minerals, metals and industrial raw materials,” said Jock Finlayson, executive vice-president of the Business Council of British Columbia. Strong commodity prices also provide companies the opportunity to negotiate favourable long-term fixed-price contracts.

The B.C. government made a move Thursday to maintain that boom by extending an important flow-through mining tax credit for three years, until 2013. B.C. has also found itself with surging natural gas fortunes. Recent blockbuster land sales for the Horn River and Montney plays in the province's northeast are now translating into production that is expected to grow by 6.3 per cent in the 2010-2011 fiscal year. Even B.C.'s long-suffering forestry sector has caught a glimmer of hope with an unexpected surge in demand from China.

The good news has extended to Saskatchewan, too, where oil companies are rushing to drill more wells in the lucrative Bakken play, two promising gold properties are being developed and the improving outlook for potash, one of the province's mainstays, brought a $240-million (U.S.) funding commitment this week from BHP Billiton Ltd., which is working on its proposed Jansen mine.

“We feel there are grounds for cautious optimism,” said Roy Schneider, a spokesman with Saskatchewan's Ministry of Energy and Resources. “This may be not an outstanding year, but a solid one.”

Part of the optimism has come from a much better profit outlook. Though it was painful, the past year helped to strengthen many major projects. Sunrise, for example, saw its estimated construction cost drop by 40 per cent. In that sense, the downturn provided a much-needed break to trim fat from projects whose costs had jumped.

“That's helped to bring the cost structure more back in line with what might be sustainable over the longer term,” said Dave Collyer, president of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers.

Gee, what happened to the risk?

[Asher]

Are you trying to play dumb here?

Of course soaring oil prices will bring some projects back. Sustained higher oil prices mitigate some of the risk, which means some players will come back and play.

They're still a far, far way of where they should be (and where they were). Some of the quotes in that article are actually infuriating for me ("the west is on fire!!!!"). I know a lot of people in Alberta still without jobs that used to work in the industry, my SO is desperately trying to get a job out in Alberta (you'd think an honours chemical engineer from Waterloo would have an easy time even LANDING AN INTERVIEW in the west (WHICH IS ON FIRE!!!), but no, there's VERY few jobs).

I'm also incredibly annoyed that you quoted something I said regarding royalty rates then posted an article which had nothing to do with them. Are you trying to be misleading or did you make a mistake?

PS: The projects in the article was incredibly tiny compared to the ones cancelled not too long ago. The risk is inherently small with these small-time ~80,000 barrel projects. Anything under $2B is peanuts. They're quick and cheap, relatively.

[notyoueither]

Are you trying to play dumb here?

Of course soaring oil prices will bring some projects back. Sustained higher oil prices mitigate some of the risk, which means some players will come back and play.

They're still a far, far way of where they should be (and where they were). Some of the quotes in that article are actually infuriating for me ("the west is on fire!!!!"). I know a lot of people in Alberta still without jobs that used to work in the industry, my SO is desperately trying to get a job out in Alberta (you'd think an honours chemical engineer from Waterloo would have an easy time even LANDING AN INTERVIEW in the west (WHICH IS ON FIRE!!!), but no, there's VERY few jobs).

There were too many projects going before the Financial Mess and before the royalty mess. That is why some were being shelved even back then.

Your SO should have no problem so long as the price of oil and appetite for it stay 'healthy.'

That's the point. The noise about the royalties and effects on investment were bull****. It's pretty easy to complain about new levels of taxation when you were planning to shut down for other reasons.

I'm also incredibly annoyed that you quoted something I said regarding royalty rates then posted an article which had nothing to do with them. Are you trying to be misleading or did you make a mistake?

Uhm,

That's the point. The noise about the royalties and effects on investment were bull****. It's pretty easy to complain about new levels of taxation when you were planning to shut down for other reasons.

PS: The projects in the article was incredibly tiny compared to the ones cancelled not too long ago. The risk is inherently small with these small-time ~80,000 barrel projects. Anything under $2B is peanuts. They're quick and cheap, relatively.

There will be more.

We really need that Expo to showcase 'clean oilsands.'

[notyoueither]

... and a provinical sales tax to capture more revenue from the carpet-baggers...