NKorea threatens US; world anticipates missile

[Traianvs]

Well, if China turns off the oil flow pipes, the regime is basically dead in the water. Of course, finding an incentive for China to deny aid to its alleged client state may be challenging...

China doesn't want NK to collapse right now to avoid masses of impoverished and frustrated North-Koreans flooding the Chinese border. Something China doesn't want at all in these times of economic crisis.

And if China shuts down the oil supply, NK might halt its nuclear programme in order to be accepted into economic aid programs with the UN. But then the regime stays intact.

I do believe these nutters might do something crazy if they see no way out. That is, when Kim and his cronies don't have backing from China (through supplies) and if the UN is adamant in its desire for reform in NK. What options do they have in that case? > The UN will have to yield and give them supplies in exchange for a halted nuclear program.

[Dr Strangelove]

Eh, a few weeks? It depends on how fast it is traveling and I don't imagine NK keeps their gear in tip top shape. And no, I expect Obama to completely puss out on the boarding. Bush did the same thing.

I think about 10 to 14 days for a vessel its size. The news keep saying it will have to pull in to Singapor to refuel, but it seems to me that the North Koreans could easily have supplied it with extra fuel. The distance from Singapore to Myanmar can't be more than one day's journey.

[Alinestra Covelia]

I can't believe this thread has gone on this long without the obligatory Team America "I'm so ronery" joke.

Aw, aw, Hans man you breakin' mah balls.

[SlowwHand]

I don't think NK could take SK either, I was more thinking that SK still wants to reunite so if we wanted CHINA to step in, we'd have to offer both. And that's what I don't think we're ready to do yet.

No way. Not even a consideration.

[Alinestra Covelia]

No way. Not even a consideration.

...for the Chinese, as well. There isn't any indication I'm aware of that suggests the Chinese government expects a unified Korea under their control. You're thinking in Cold War terms of client states, and I think it's pretty obvious that their current relationships with Myanmar and NK are causing the Chinese leadership far more headaches than gains. Trade with SK is already keeping much of the Chinese economy afloat - anything that disturbs that balance is counterindicated.

China-NK: China may be willing to discuss a joint reconstruction effort in the former NK. China doesn't want a collapsed state, but it also doesn't want to keep propping up a regime that has repeatedly and intentionally picked fights with three of China's major economic partners. The continued political intransigence of the Kim regime is an ever-increasing embarrassment to the Chinese, indicating how little diplomatic influence they currently have over a nominal client state. Obviously China won't be sending troops in unless things really went to hell, as the loss of face of having to invade a client state would be enormous, but the Chinese leadership these days wear business suits, not Mao suits. The ideological reasons sustaining the old client state relationship are gone. They'd probably be interested in finding a way to prod the regime gently into dissolution and then make sure whatever comes next is a better deal.

China-SK: I'm not sure where you get the impression that China wants SK as a client state. There has been no ideological justification to support that claim, and the party line has been completely silent about that (unlike, say, Taiwan, which has historical symbolism for the early Communists - even though nowadays it's unclear how earnest the current assertions of mainland sovereignty are). SK is one of the major trading nations with China, and cultural exchanges between the nations are arguably greater than that between the US and China. Go to any university in Beijing and I guarantee you you'll find the main body of foreign students will be South Koreans - in many cases they outnumber all other foreign student nationalities combined.

However, China is skeptical of a united Korea under American military control. The problem here is not in Chinese perceptions of South Korea, but in Chinese-US relations. Solutions here would be longterm and would require improved diplomatic ties between the nations, but the good news is that that's already happening. And in any case it's likely to progress at a similar pace to the NK's internal dissolution.

China-US relations: The Cold War-era military rivalry between US and PRC is dwarfed by the PRC's interests in regional trade, and its desire for a stable economic recovery. The establishment of a military hotline and Obama's clear focus of Asia as a target for international diplomacy are clear signs of improving ties. Minor tensions persist insofar as the Chinese leadership is skeptical of American intentions with their military bases in Japan and SK, and sales of arms to Taiwan, but that strikes me as a front that could allow for some good bargaining gains on both sides. US-China trade is important to the US and it's vital to China, and anything that threatens that is repulsive to both.

It seems to me that NK and China are the two main nominal reasons why the US still has a fixed military presence in Asia. (The WWII justification of policing Japan is long gone.) NK is a real threat, but it looks likely to be a shortlived one. As for China, its leadership has increasingly turned its attentions to economic growth. This trend has made conflict with Taiwan an increasingly remote possibility, although both US and China have internal policies (at least on paper) that assume there will be a conflict. Ameliorating those policies will deprive hardliners in both camps of the excuses they need to keep sabre-rattling, and would likely allow for greater cooperation in Korea.

America needs to convince China's leaders that a united Korea under the capitalist South would not turn into a giant fixed American barracks/listening post on China's doorstep. That may be the sole policy justification for continued Chinese support of the ailing and deeply embarrassing NK regime. The good news is it seems like that's what the Americans are working towards at the moment.

It's unclear how entrenched the NK leadership really is. It's clear the Chinese are playing a major part in keeping it viable. If Chinese aid genuinely could support it indefinitely, then it's in American interests to improve relations with China to the point that the Chinese cost-benefit balance shifts against keeping NK alive. Until that point, NK will still be around and the regime will continue disrupting regional relations and misruling its own populace.

If, however, Chinese aid is unable to guarantee the regime's stability, then a collapse could come internally regardless. In this scenario it would be in both America's and China's interests to prepare for the inevitable and to have some direct agreement on how the rebuilding will be done, and also some indirect understanding that the two nations have nothing to fear from each other during this process.

[Alinestra Covelia]

Also: fish.

[Patroklos]

[quote]I'm not convinced NK could take SK at this point.[quote]

This has been the obvious case for 50 years or so.

I think about 10 to 14 days for a vessel its size. The news keep saying it will have to pull in to Singapor to refuel, but it seems to me that the North Koreans could easily have supplied it with extra fuel. The distance from Singapore to Myanmar can't be more than one day's journey.

A vessel like that is probably making 18-20 knots, thats only 480 miles a day. For reference it normally takes a USN ship doing around 20 knots two weeks to cross the Atlantic. We are not cruising around in WWII era rusting POSs like NK though.

[Alinestra Covelia]

This has been the obvious case for 50 years or so.

So your point is that we agree on the obvious. Well, that's a start.

[SlowwHand]

[Provost Harrison]

SEOUL, South Korea – North Korea threatened Wednesday to wipe the United States off the map as Washington and its allies watched for signs the regime will launch a series of missiles in the coming days.

I'd be scared. He's drawn a map of the world on a whiteboard with a marker and has a cloth ready to wipe the US off there But those are pretty harsh words - he really should be careful what he says.

[Japher]

He has been known to cure narcolepsy, just by walking into the room.

His organ donation card, also lists his beard.

He’s a lover, not a fighter, but he’s also a fighter, so don’t get any ideas.

When it is raining, it is because he is sad.

Even his parents’ advice is insightful.

If there were an interesting gland, his would be larger than most men’s entire lower intestines.

His shirts never wrinkle.

He is left-handed. And right-handed.

Even if he forgets to put postage on his mail, it gets there.

He once knew a call was a wrong number, even though the person on the other end wouldn’t admit it.

You can see his charisma from space.

The police often question him, just because they find him interesting.

He once punched a magician. That’s right. You heard me.

When he orders a salad, he gets the dressing right there on top of the salad, where it belongs…where there is no turning back.

If a monument was built in his honor, Mt. Rushmore would close, due to poor attendance.

His beard alone has experienced more than a lesser man’s entire body.

His blood smells like cologne.

On every continent in the world, there is a sandwich named after him.

He doesn’t believe in using oven mitts, nor potholders.

His cereal never gets soggy. It sits there, staying crispy, just for him.

His pillow talk is years ahead of it’s time.

Respected archaeologists fight over his discarded apple cores.

He once had an awkward moment, just to know what it feels like.

He lives vicariously through himself.






He is, the most interesting man in the world...

but he's no "dear leader"

Like his father, Kim has a fear of flying, and has always traveled by private armored train for state visits to Russia and China. The BBC reported that Konstantin Pulikovsky, a Russian emissary who traveled with Kim across Russia by train, told reporters that Kim had live lobsters air-lifted to the train every day. [94]

Kim is said to be a huge film buff, owning a collection of more than 20,000 video tapes.[95] His reported favorites are the Friday the 13th, Rambo, James Bond, and Godzilla series, as well as Hong Kong action cinema, and any movie with Elizabeth Taylor.[96] He is the author of the book On the Art of the Cinema. In 1978, on Kim's orders, South Korean film director Shin Sang-ok and his actress wife Choi Eun-hee were kidnapped in order to build a North Korean film industry.[97] In 2006 he was involved in the production of the Juche-based movie Diary of a Girl Student – depicting the life of a girl whose parents are scientists – with a KCNA news report stating that Kim "improved its script and guided its production".[98]

Kim reportedly also enjoys basketball. Former United States Secretary of State Madeleine Albright ended her summit with Kim by presenting him with a basketball signed by NBA legend Michael Jordan.[99] Also an apparent golfer, North Korean state media reports that Kim routinely shoots three or four holes-in-one per round (The odds of making a single hole-in-one in one round are around 1 in 5000).[100][101] His official biography also claims Kim has composed six operas and enjoys staging elaborate musicals.[102] Kim also refers to himself as an Internet expert.[103]

Defectors claim that Kim has 17 different palaces and residences, including a private resort near Baekdu Mountain, a seaside lodge in the city of Wonsan, and a palace complex northeast of Pyongyang surrounded with multiple fence lines, bunkers, and anti-aircraft batteries.[104]

From wiki, so you know it's true.

[Provost Harrison]

A collection of >20 000 video tapes? That's North Korea all over isn't it...who the **** uses video tapes any more? Hell, I even bet they're Betamax!

[Alinestra Covelia]

Well now Kim uses avis so nobody knows exactly how many he's got.

[Maquiladora]

A collection of >20 000 video tapes? That's North Korea all over isn't it...who the **** uses video tapes any more? Hell, I even bet they're Betamax!

They're probably all blanks for taping films off the TV.

[SlowwHand]

Why doesn't MPAA go file charges on their ass? No, better to jack with someone over 20 something songs.