A "what if" thread - Pearl harbor goes japanese

[Drake Tungsten]

Depends if the Philippines were still attacked or not.

[BlackCat]

I assume that the US carriers could have run away. Also, I assume that a few dozen vessels wouldn't have been sufficient to take over Hawaii and garrison it.

They would be able to establish a pretty big bridgehead - even take it all. Garrisoning would be through additional supplies. And no, I'm not just adding to the original OT - it would be a natural part of an invasion.

If the carrier chief was smart, then he surely would run like hell.

[Patroklos]

I assume that the US carriers could have run away. Also, I assume that a few dozen vessels wouldn't have been sufficient to take over Hawaii and garrison it.

If the carriers run to the West coast that is still a major tactical win. In any case, to deny the US use of Hawaii all the Japanese really had to do was occupy Oahu, at that time the rest of the islands were barely populated (which relative is still the case now). Even if all they had done was land at Pearl, burn/blow everything up and rolled out it would have been devestating to the US war effort.

I suppose that given the already high expectations/risk involved the decided not to push their luck with an invasion.

[Adam Smith]

The Difficult We Do Immediately, The Impossible Takes A Little Longer

One of my Uncles, who worked for the "State Department" left me a really interesting book by David C. Evans entitled "The Japanese Navy in World War II". This book is a series of post-war debriefings of Japanese flag rank naval officers. Fully half a chapter is devoted to the decision to go back and hit Pearl Harbor again. Most officers thought damage had already far exceeded expectations. Others argued that the second strike should target the extensive repair facilities, machine shops, power supply, etc. (Think what that would have meant say in the case of the USS Yorktown just prior to Midway.) The Japanese in fact came within an inch of ordering a second strike. But the Japanese flight officers who participated in the first attack rated the American response "surprisingly rapid and effective" in spite of the complete element of surprise. Hence the decision not to go back a second time.

Regarding carriers, note from this list how many Essex class carriers were already under construction prior to the attack on Pearl Harbor. These were not the old pre-naval treaty carriers like Hornet, Wasp etc, but the next generation that was better than anything the Japanese had at the time, and became the backbone of the Pacific Fleet throughout the war.

The Essex class
Ship Keel laid Launched Commissioned Decommissioned Fate
USS Essex (CV-9) April 1941 July 1942 December 1942 June 1969 Scrapped (June 1975)
USS Yorktown (CV-10) December 1941 January 1943 April 1943 June 1970 Museum (October 1975)
USS Intrepid (CV-11) December 1941 April 1943 August 1943 March 1974 Museum (August 1982)
USS Hornet (CV-12) August 1942 August 1943 November 1943 June 1970 Museum (July 1989)
USS Franklin (CV-13) December 1942 October 1943 January 1944 February 1947 Scrapped (August 1966)
USS Ticonderoga (CV-14) February 1943 February 1944 May 1944 September 1973 Scrapped (September 1975)
USS Randolph (CV-15) May 1943 June 1944 October 1944 February 1969 Scrapped (May 1975)
USS Lexington (CV-16) July 1941 September 1942 February 1943 November 1991 Museum (June 1992)
USS Bunker Hill (CV-17) September 1941 December 1942 May 1943 January 1947 Scrapped (May 1973)
USS Wasp (CV-18) March 1942 August 1943 November 1943 July 1972 Scrapped (May 1973)
USS Hancock (CV-19) January 1943 January 1944 April 1944 January 1976 Scrapped (September 1976)
USS Bennington (CV-20) December 1942 February 1944 August 1944 January 1970 Scrapped (January 1994)
USS Boxer (CV-21) September 1943 December 1944 April 1945 December 1969 Scrapped (February 1971)
USS Bon Homme Richard (CV-31) February 1943 April 1944 November 1944 July 1971 Scrapped (March 1992)
USS Leyte (CV-32) February 1944 August 1945 April 1946 May 1959 Scrapped (March 1970)
USS Kearsarge (CV-33) March 1944 May 1945 March 1946 February 1970 Scrapped (September 1970)
USS Oriskany (CV-34) May 1944 October 1945 September 1950 September 1976 Scuttled (May 2006)
USS Antietam (CV-36) March 1943 August 1944 January 1945 May 1963 Scrapped (February 1974)
USS Princeton (CV-37) September 1943 July 1945 November 1945 January 1970 Scrapped (May 1971)
USS Shangri-La (CV-38) January 1943 February 1944 September 1944 July 1971 Scrapped (August 1998)
USS Lake Champlain (CV-39) March 1943 November 1944 June 1945 May 1966 Scrapped (April 1972)
USS Tarawa (CV-40) March 1943 May 1945 November 1945 June 1967 Scrapped (October 1968)
USS Valley Forge (CV-45) September 1944 November 1945 November 1946 January 1970 Scrapped (October 1971)
USS Philippine Sea (CV-47) August 1944 September 1945 May 1946 December 1958 Scrapped (March 1971)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Essex_class_carrier

[Dis]

Well, there has been several threads about "what if"'s concerning europe, but not many about US.

What if japan had made a third, fourth etc attack and also had an invasion fleet ready to take the Hawaian islands ?

They would have still lost. Their biggest mistake was thinking an attack would permanently cripple us. They would have delayed the war by a few years perhaps, but the end result would have been the same... or worse. Lots more death, and possibly more nuclear devices used. It would have taken more time to recover enough islands, and airfields necessary to get bombers in range of japanese cities, but it would have eventually happened.

[Dis]

Or, what if there was no Pearl Harbor attack.

that's a much more interesting what if. Would the U.S. have entered the war with Japan (I believe eventually they would have knocked out germany)