Can China survive depression and deglobalisation?

[DaShi]

Originally posted by Kuciwalker
GePap's argument is a good one.

Ouch! Kiss of death.

[DaShi]

Originally posted by GePap

Yes, but then of course there have been such periods as well that haven't led to revolutions, and there have been attempted revolutions or revolts that have failed.

Just saying that there is discontent in China, and that in past times such discontent has sometimes lead to revolution isn;t enough to argue that this time it must be the same, or that it is likely to be the same.

I don't think anyone is speaking in absolutes. However, these are trends worth looking at given historical precedent.

And when a theoretical is posted like this time, it makes sense to work within the supposed constraints of it. I think an outside driven political crisis like this would not bring down the CCP because as I already stated it discredits some of the intellectual opposition to the Party more than the party itself, and because the CCP (which is now communist only in name) has shown itself capable of significant policy changes as long as the central aim of keeping its authoritarian hold on political power is kept. They are willing to be flexible when they think it prudent and brutal when they feel its necessary.

Promising change won't be enough. If the discontent is high enough and the problems go on for long enough, then organized resistence will become more likely. But, I agree, the CCP is doing and will do everything in their power to prevent that. If they make the right choices, they will stay in power. If not, they could have a revolution on their hands.

Also, blaming foreigners or outside sources won't really protect the CCP in an economic crisis. The people are expecting the government to protect them from foreign policies. During the the embassy bombing the government took a lot of flak from the people for not being aggressive and assertive enough with America, the same thing occurred with the anti-Japanese riots. People aren't going to stop and think about the intellectual opposition when their stomaches are growling. When the jobs start disappearing, they won't be cursing the foreigners (which is something Americans are more likely to do), they'll be asking why their government isn't doing something about it.

As for the current economic crisis, it's too early to tell. I don't think any country is feeling secure in their economies at the moment.

[Fake Boris]

At last, you're finally trying to put up something.

[GePap]

Originally posted by DaShi

Promising change won't be enough. If the discontent is high enough and the problems go on for long enough, then organized resistence will become more likely. But, I agree, the CCP is doing and will do everything in their power to prevent that. If they make the right choices, they will stay in power. If not, they could have a revolution on their hands.

I think the growth and creation of a large middle class in China's coast acts as a big damper on revolution. Large middle classes aren't that enthused about radical change because they fear it threatens their own status - those that have benefited from the last 20 years in China have a reason to fear disruption more than incompetence.

The other problem is that modern armed revolts against strong military powers face an immense uphill climb. And the ability of the state to bring into possible use weapons of mass destruction against anyone from the outside who might dare to give material support for revolts or even against internal enemies is a huge big question mark. I haven't seen any significant evidence of unhappiness inside of the ranks of the PLA.

Also, blaming foreigners or outside sources won't really protect the CCP in an economic crisis. The people are expecting the government to protect them from foreign policies. During the the embassy bombing the government took a lot of flak from the people for not being aggressive and assertive enough with America, the same thing occurred with the anti-Japanese riots. People aren't going to stop and think about the intellectual opposition when their stomaches are growling. When the jobs start disappearing, they won't be cursing the foreigners (which is something Americans are more likely to do), they'll be asking why their government isn't doing something about it.

Why would you think the Chinese acts differently than the people in say Cuba, or Iraq, or any of the other states that have been able to succesfully blame economic collapse on the other? If EVERYONE in the world is starving (and modern individuals have access to mass media, so they compare their lot not only to their neighbors but to people elsewhere as well) blaming your government only for the mess isn't as emotioanlly satisfying because it isn't as reasonable.

Also, Personally I think those aggressive acts of nationalism you mentioned show that if push came to shove, and the government in China saw it to their advatange, they would play up the xenophobia and jingoism in China. Discredit attempts to change the government as attempts to weaken the country and open it up to the same exploitation that occured in the early 20th century. Wave the flag of internal solidarity against the outside threat, or even the internal one posed by restive minorities.

[Ecthy]

Dito Asher's first response to this thread. I mean, what the heck? The question emerges from the insight into being doomed.

Spoiler:

Warning: this is voodoo economics.

Worldwide growth decreases by 4%. This means an absolute growth this year of -2% for Germany, 7% for China. OF COURSE China will survive, while the west is doomed and India not worth even talking about (part of the rest of the world, drowning in our debt etc.)

India is all computers and poor pissers. Pitiful.

[Darius871]

Originally posted by DaShi
Oh yes, the no, you are approach. Darius' favorite.

...and I'm the one who can't "get over it"?

[Impaler[WrG]]

The social contract in China since Deng Xiaoping's has been "Give us (the CCP) total power and we will bring glorious economic growth" . The CCP has succeeded in bringing that growth and if a GDII forces that growth to end then the CCP will have to find a new bargain to offer the people. My suspicion is that an enhancement of the welfare state will be offered rather then an expansion of political freedom.

Most of China's current decent is over growing in-equality rather then for more democracy, all the boats are rising but some are rising a lot faster and people feel the 'deal' is being skewed, if the rising tide stops or even worse recedes then the out cry for the welfare state will be quite loud. They won't be going back to Maoist collectivism thats for sure but a more European style welfare state seems the most obvious answer to placate the populous without surrendering strong central power. And given the fact that the US and the world at large will certainly be moving in the same direction if things are that bad the intellectual atmosphere outside of China will reinforce rather then as is now the case oppose the CCP. Those who dissent from a societies social contract are bolstered by being able to point to vibrant foreign models or movements and are weakened when external consensus is against them.

[DaShi]

Originally posted by Darius871


...and I'm the one who can't "get over it"?

Calm down. I just mentioned your name once as an example. No need to get excited over it.

[DaShi]

Originally posted by GePap
I think the growth and creation of a large middle class in China's coast acts as a big damper on revolution. Large middle classes aren't that enthused about radical change because they fear it threatens their own status - those that have benefited from the last 20 years in China have a reason to fear disruption more than incompetence.

China's middle class is still very young and not cemented. Also, it's comparatively small given the country's population. China has yet to reach the stability that a middle class like the US's brings. But that is its goal.

The other problem is that modern armed revolts against strong military powers face an immense uphill climb. And the ability of the state to bring into possible use weapons of mass destruction against anyone from the outside who might dare to give material support for revolts or even against internal enemies is a huge big question mark. I haven't seen any significant evidence of unhappiness inside of the ranks of the PLA.

Modern militaries are still surprisingly weak against guerilla tactics. The US should have learned this lesson several times over by now. Factionalism in the military is possible as it's not as centrally controlled as one would think. But there's no reason right now for anyone in the military to be unhappy.

Why would you think the Chinese acts differently than the people in say Cuba, or Iraq, or any of the other states that have been able to succesfully blame economic collapse on the other? If EVERYONE in the world is starving (and modern individuals have access to mass media, so they compare their lot not only to their neighbors but to people elsewhere as well) blaming your government only for the mess isn't as emotioanlly satisfying because it isn't as reasonable.

No, this is a very Chinese thing. You can not say that the Chinese will act the same as people in Cuba or Iraq. They simply will not. This is something most westerners don't understand about China and Asia in general.

Also, Personally I think those aggressive acts of nationalism you mentioned show that if push came to shove, and the government in China saw it to their advatange, they would play up the xenophobia and jingoism in China. Discredit attempts to change the government as attempts to weaken the country and open it up to the same exploitation that occured in the early 20th century. Wave the flag of internal solidarity against the outside threat, or even the internal one posed by restive minorities.

Unless the foreigners are directly in their land and preventing their growth, the Chinese really don't care. This is why the extreme nationalism become a sdouble-edged sword for the CCP. True, they could argue that weakening the CCP would make them vulnerable to foreigners, but if the CCP is unable to be strong on its own, the people will want a government that is. Again, as you study China, you realize that you can't compare it to other countries. Its culture and history is so unique and really hasn't changed much in the last 2000 years. They simply don't follow the same rules.

[Darius871]

Originally posted by DaShi


Calm down. I just mentioned your name once as an example. No need to get excited over it.

Who says I'm excited? I merely find you amusing, particularly the fact that you've at least once claimed you wouldn't dignify me with response, only to do so repeatedly thereafter. I just want to see how long that phenomenon lasts.

[Impaler[WrG]]

Unless the foreigners are directly in their land and preventing their growth, the Chinese really don't care. This is why the extreme nationalism become a sdouble-edged sword for the CCP. True, they could argue that weakening the CCP would make them vulnerable to foreigners, but if the CCP is unable to be strong on its own, the people will want a government that is. Again, as you study China, you realize that you can't compare it to other countries. Its culture and history is so unique and really hasn't changed much in the last 2000 years. They simply don't follow the same rules.

You may have something their, one of the defining characteristics of China is it's overwhelming belief in the innate superiority of its own material culture to the point of considering everyone else a 'barbarian' by comparison. When foreigners show them selves to be superior the Chinese psychology MUST ascribe this to an internal failure of China to achieve its full potential which if achieved would 'obviously' overshadow the foreigners and return China to a position of proper dominance.

Given the excellent growth that has become the norm in China and the clear emergence of China as a rising Super power it will be hard to see how the Chinese man on the street can accept some scenario in which the end of that growth can be blamed on foreigners. Even if foreigners conspire against China, superior Chinese society should have been able to win if the leadership is competent. Thus the blame for failure must be put on a domestic source. A similar phenomenon is occurring in the US which is equally self-assured as to its own innate superiority, internal failures such as bad management, incompetent government and greedy capitalists take the blame for our social ills rather then the malicious intent of foreigners.

[DaShi]

Originally posted by Darius871


Who says I'm excited? I merely find you amusing, particularly the fact that you've at least once claimed you wouldn't dignify me with response, only to do so repeatedly thereafter. I just want to see how long that phenomenon lasts.

Seriously, just let it go. You have issues. Just post a after this and forget it. You'll sleep better and I won't have to read your whinging anymore.

[DaShi]

Originally posted by Impaler[WrG]
A similar phenomenon is occurring in the US which is equally self-assured as to its own innate superiority, internal failures such as bad management, incompetent government and greedy capitalists take the blame for our social ills rather then the malicious intent of foreigners.

But they still took our jerbs!!