I'm starting to feel pity for McCain.

[Darius871]

Originally posted by Ramo

No, they're not. They're already blaming the loss on moderates like McCain who didn't have the balls to really go after Obama. The GOP base is going to come out of this election angry and with heightened influence just like the Dem base in 2004.

That was my point. The Republicans are going to crazytown, which is roughly where Palin is positioning herself.

That reactionary fervor is only going to fine-tune base's search for a charismatic and articulate Reaganesque messiah who can lay waste to all who stand in his way, not this flimsy little ditz with no thought beyond trite talking points and no electoral record beyond the present colossal failure. Get real.

Edit: and what Rufus said.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by Naked Gents Rut


The base decides who wins in the primaries.

The base really liked Dan Quayle, too. And they were pretty keen on Huckabee and Thompson last year. There's precious little evidence that the GOP base, as we seem to be defining it, can get their candidate nominated, let alone elected.

On the other hand, after Nov. 4, the base may have the party all to itself...

[Naked Gents Rut]

That was my point. The Republicans are going to crazytown, which is roughly where Palin is positioning herself.

What's wrong with Crazytown? The Dems went there and now they're going to have a possibly filibuster-proof majority in Congress and the most left-wing President in recent memory.

There's precious little evidence that the GOP base, as we seem to be defining it, can get their candidate nominated, let alone elected.

Except for the last eight years, of course. Or 1980-1988.

[KrazyHorse]

Most left wing? By that do you mean "slightly more left-wing than Bill Clinton"?

[Naked Gents Rut]

Obama's record in Illinois indicates that he's significantly to the left of Bill Clinton. We'll be lucky if his actions as President are only as left-wing as his voting record in the U.S. Senate.

[Dinner]

Naw, stupidity springs eternal. They'll lose bad and then they'll be a brief fight with a minority wanting to move to the center while Limbaugh and the talking heads demand they move even further to the right. In the end the right wing media and blogosphere will win because that's all the base listens too. They'll lose a few elections then the famously short term memories of Americans will kick in and people will forget who badly Repugs screwed the pooch and Repugs will be back selling the same snake oil.

[Naked Gents Rut]

They'll lose a few elections then the famously short term memories of Americans will kick in and people will forget who badly Repugs screwed the pooch and Repugs will be back selling the same snake oil.

Wow, I actually agree with Oerdin on something...

Anyway, this is exactly right. Idgit voters will be hankering to vote for the GOP in 2016, maybe 2020 if Obama is a particularly successful President. It doesn't matter if they go to Crazytown or not in the meantime, since idgit voters only care about "change", not whether said change is a good idea or not.

[Darius871]

Originally posted by Naked Gents Rut
Obama's record in Illinois indicates that he's significantly to the left of Bill Clinton. We'll be lucky if his actions as President are only as left-wing as his voting record in the U.S. Senate.

Don't measure Clinton's supposed centrism by his record in the White House, since 75% of his term was up against a GOP Congress. We simply don't know what he would have done with a filibuster-proof Congress.

Even 1993-1995 wouldn't be an accurate gauge, because with such a slim spread and the effect of Perot he didn't have the sort of vast mandate Obama will have in 2009. Hell, even Bush in 2001-2007 was subject to more restraint than Obama will be if current polling is accurate.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Naked Gents Rut
Obama's record in Illinois indicates that he's significantly to the left of Bill Clinton. We'll be lucky if his actions as President are only as left-wing as his voting record in the U.S. Senate.

In Illinois Obama represented an inner-city district that included the University of Chicago. He's now representing the whole country. From what I've seen of him he takes the idea of representing his constituents honestly pretty seriously.

As for US Senate, he's been strongly against the war in Iraq. Outside that I'm not sure what you think he's done that's been crazy left wing.

[Darius871]

BTW, since we're in a betting mood lately, I'll gladly throw down $100 for 4-1 odds against Palin actually being nominated by the GOP in 2012 or 2016. Any takers?

[Ramo]

What's wrong with Crazytown? The Dems went there and now they're going to have a possibly filibuster-proof majority in Congress and the most left-wing President in recent memory.

The political situation now is totally different from 8 years ago. There's no comparison. Bush came in with a popular vote loss, and the Dems picking up a number of seats in the Senate. And Clinton, Gore, Kerry, and Obama fit roughly the same center-left ideological niche. If we're talking about policy, there's remarkable uniformity in all of these figures' positions (if anything, Gore is probably the furthest to the left). The entire party, and the country, moved somewhat to the left thanks to G Dub.

That reactionary fervor is only going to fine-tune base's search for a charismatic and articulate Reaganesque messiah who can lay waste to all who stand in his way, not this flimsy little ditz with no thought beyond trite talking points and no electoral record beyond the present colossal failure. Get real.

Once more, I never predicted that she'd be the nominee. Only that she's a legitimate contender.

[Ramo]

BTW, since we're in a betting mood lately, I'll gladly throw down $100 for 4-1 odds against Palin actually being nominated by the GOP in 2012 or 2016. Any takers?

I'd give her ~20%, so no.

[KrazyHorse]

Not a chance. Does Intrade have the 2012 contracts up yet?

[Naked Gents Rut]

As for US Senate, he's been strongly against the war in Iraq. Outside that I'm not sure what you think he's done that's been crazy left wing.

I don't think he was crazy left-wing in the U.S. Senate. That was my point. If we're lucky, he'll govern as the same doctrinaire liberal that he was in the Senate.

I don't think that's very likely, however. It's pretty clear that Obama saw the Senate mainly as a stepping stone to higher office (the WaPo had a good article about this last week), so it makes sense that he would craft a voting record that would be politically advantageous to him in a future run for office. To get a true idea of what Obama really believes and is likely to push for as President, I think you have to go farther back and look at his positions in the Illinois State Senate and his work in Chicago before that. I don't like a lot of what's back there.

[KrazyHorse]

20% seems high to me. How often do parties nominate losing VP nominees? (honest question)