Gold Bugs Unite

[Lancer]

Originally posted by Oerdin


My uncle used to spend just about every vacation up in the California gold country with a dredging machine which automatically sifted out the gold. He said gold prices fell so low it wasn't worth it any more (and my aunt kept bugging him saying she wanted to do something different with their vacations). The mountains east of San Diego produced the second biggest gold deposits in California so if we have a wet winter I might just head up there with my uncle's gold dredging equipment to see what I can find. You never know there might still be gold in them there hills.

If you can make it pay its better than having a 9-5 by a long shot. I'd put my $ on a wet winter this year.

[Seeker]

Coins have way way too much of premium, I'm not buying coins, just bars.

Buying bars is much more cost-effective over the long term then coins, no numismatic premium.

[One_more_turn]

I would rather buy farm land than gold if I believe major crisis is on the horizon.

When chaos reigns, your gold is really useless unless you have the POWER to protect it.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Seeker
Coins have way way too much of premium, I'm not buying coins, just bars.

Buying bars is much more cost-effective over the long term then coins, no numismatic premium.

It's still gold. Gold peaked in 1980, and crashed after that. It peaked again lately at around the same price it did in 1980. Also, there is a serious risk of deflation. Why are you hoarding gold?

[Seeker]

1) The disconnect between the price of physical gold and 'paper' gold such as COMEX is becoming so drastic that it can't last much longer.

2) The coming US dollar problems, which are too extensive to go into here, must inevitably result in a US dollar devalution IMHO, and gold will, at a minimum, be the least punished asset class, just like it has been the least-punished asset to be in in the current deflationary environment.

3) I didn't start buying in 1980.

4) Gold stocks are being hammered to the point where company physical assets and day-to-day cash flow are worth more than the stock price, which indicates to me a suspiciously undervalued asset class. Example, platinum below 850 is no longer cost-effective to mine, and yet industry still uses it.

[Asher]

It's a terrible idea and you will see why in a few years.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Seeker
1) The disconnect between the price of physical gold and 'paper' gold such as COMEX is becoming so drastic that it can't last much longer.

Even it that's true, and you'll have to convince me, if one peaks the other peaks, no?

2) The coming US dollar problems, which are too extensive to go into here, must inevitably result in a US dollar devalution IMHO, and gold will, at a minimum, be the least punished asset class, just like it has been the least-punished asset to be in in the current deflationary environment.

We aren't in a deflationary environment yet. You are suppose to sell before that happens.

3) I didn't start buying in 1980.

Good, you weren't suppose to. You were suppose to sell, just like you are right now.

4) Gold stocks are being hammered to the point where company physical assets and day-to-day cash flow are worth more than the stock price, which indicates to me a suspiciously undervalued asset class. Example, platinum below 850 is no longer cost-effective to mine, and yet industry still uses it.

The price of gold is based more on speculation than anything. It's just a repetative bubble forming market that pops everytime.

You can hold out in the long run for everything to go to hell, but you're going to be sorry on the next bust if you just think that hell is going to happen in the near future.

[Kidlicious]

Gold is like houses and tulips. They are consumption goods. In the long run all speculative value disappears.

[Seeker]

Gold is like dollars and cents should be. In the long run, all values that are not based on an underlying real value drop to their true worth, i.e. paper.

Obviously a disagreement.

And IRT Comex, one is going up (value of physical gold) while the other is declining (ETF gold). There is neither a peak nor a trough (inflation-adjusted) yet IMO.

We obviously have a disagreement that only time will reveal the truth of. Archive thread?

[RGBVideo]

It's not a horrible idea if you believe the US government is going bankrupt.

You would've more than doubled your money if you had bought in three years ago and sold yesterday.

The fact that a non-professional investor like you is buying is anecdotal evidence of a speculative bubble. I wonder when it'll burst and the price will go back to less than $500/oz...

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by VJ
It's not a horrible idea if you believe the US government is going bankrupt.

You would've more than doubled your money if you had bought in three years ago and sold yesterday.

But if he's waiting for the US to go bankrupt he should never sell it until then. That's why he's not selling now. I wonder how possible it is to hold on to an investment indefinitely.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Seeker
Gold is like dollars and cents should be. In the long run, all values that are not based on an underlying real value drop to their true worth, i.e. paper.

[Seeker]

Well I took profit over $1000 Oz. It was good. Thank god I did my own research instead of listening to the 'smart folk'.

Dumping into Silver and well capped undervalued gold producers like Sea Crest and Goldcorp.

I may buy gold again since I believe there will be a significant fall in the near-term due to profit-taking and central-banker panic.

I'm hoping it can get down to $925-50 when I can get in again. Given the policies of central bankers and governments the world over, I think I could see a rise to some psychologically significant round number like $1200 before I get out again.

I DON'T think we are likely to see gold down in the 700s again for 10 years given the current and likely future interventions. Unfortunately for late-buyers, the opportunity to buy gold at that price is gone for a long time.

I still have some gold, but just a smidgen because I like it and it goes 'cling' when I bang 'em together.



Gold Bugs of the World Unite!!

EDIT:

"Good, you weren't suppose to. You were suppose to sell, just like you are right now."

This quote is posted here, keeping in mind that the above poster was following the accepted wisdom and herd-mentality, advising investors to SELL when the value was in the 7s and 8s, instead of 1000. A gold investor following this advice would've been burned big-time. Don't always do what you're 'supposed' to.

If there is anyone thinking of investing in gold, I would say NOT NOW, whatever you do do not invest now. Government inflation will not work its way back into the system for many months. So we should see some downward movement after the psychologically significant $1000. I am setting a mark of $925 or 950, I may get a little burned but not too much. Into the fall I think we will see gold comfortably above 1000 for a long time, with room for upward expansion. While I don't believe in Fibonacci number mysticism, 1200 is another good round psychological number to 'take a look around' at since it is likely that central bankers would exert major downward pressure around that high a price.

Just my 2 cents. Oh and to reiterate I think buying gold in the form of coins, certs, or anything except the plain ole' metal bars that say '0.9999' is not a good idea. If I could tell the future I would've bought coins 2 years ago.

My next gamble is silver, and well-capitalized gold mining stocks. Why? There are pretty much as low as they can go (silver can maybe go a little further to $10), but I REFUSE to believe that the historical relationship between gold and silver prices is totally dead, what we are seeing is just lag, or so I am betting.

SILVERRRRR.

[Dis]

gold lol.

all the experts were saying not to buy it. it's way overpriced right now.

[Whoha]

Other question: WTF are stocks like AMEX: Seabridge so much underperforming my physical brick?? Surely a gold miner/explorer should at least somewhat track the price of gold...something smells fishy there.

Perhaps there are worries about nationalization of gold mines.