Why US Dollars rised over teh last day?

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Kidicious
What do you think the low will be within 1 years time KH?

What the hell does this sentence mean? Does it mean the 52-week low a year from today?

[KrazyHorse]

As I said, little one:

http://www.optionsxpress.com/new_account.asp

Put your money where your mouth is.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
Does it mean the 52-week low a year from today?

Yes

[KrazyHorse]

Take a guess where you think it will be and I will (for free) figure out how best to leverage your incredible knowledge. All I ask is that you pre-commit to buying in to whatever position I come up with, to a minimum of 10000$

[Kidlicious]

Don't want to say how low the price will go, eh?

[KrazyHorse]

I have no idea. I thought I'd already made that clear. The futures/options market thinks it knows. I can do a pretty good job of pulling that info out for you if you have a real reason to have it. If you think you know better than the aggregated information from tens of thousands of well-informed individuals (as well as some badly informed individuals...cough) then you should be in the market. Unlike you, I don't think I have any special information about the future course of commodities prices. I am, however, not spectacularly wrong about basic economics. Which you are.

[Kidlicious]

Hmmm.. You like to make claims like there is no speculative bubble, but you don't want to talk about actual numbers. I don't care what you think you know, you aren't sure of it at all.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Kidicious
Hmmm.. You like to make claims like there is no speculative bubble, but you don't want to talk about actual numbers. I don't care what you think you know, you aren't sure of it at all.

You're a dork. If there was a speculative bubble then why didn't you get in there and pop it?

THAT is my wisdom. A wisdom which you so obviously lack. I know the limits of my competence. And while the limits of my competence obviously far outreach yours, the limits of my conceits are much smaller.

[KrazyHorse]

I have no idea if oil prices are too high or too low. But I do know that there are thousands of people whose job it is to rape the market when the prices get too high or too low. You are claiming to be smarter than this aggregate.

Good luck with that.

[Aeson]

I can give you my reason for not wanting to "pop" the speculative bubble... while it was obvious that commodities had to burst at some point, but there's no telling when that point is going to be. (When people started calling for oil to $200 I seriously thought about it though. Same as when people started calling for Google to $1000. That sort of mania usually ends in panic selloffs.)

"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
I have no idea if oil prices are too high or too low. But I do know that there are thousands of people whose job it is to rape the market when the prices get too high or too low. You are claiming to be smarter than this aggregate.

Good luck with that.

I'm only claiming to be smarter than you.

[KrazyHorse]

Aeson

You do realize that you can easily roll over futures positions, right? Oil always goes up and down. If you know that it's going to drop faster and farther than others think then it should be appropriable knowledge. For instance, Kid's claim to know something about the 52-week low is NOT the same as "knowing" that the housing bubble was going to burst in 2001. (Which would not have been easily appropriable)

"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

I used that quote like 5 days ago on CG, you bastard. As long as you are capable of restraining your leverage to suit your knowledge of the timeframe of the change you're talking about you should be able to stay solvent AND turn a pretty good profit...

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Kidicious


I'm only claiming to be smarter than you.

a) If you truly think you are then you are delusional
b) No, you are still claiming special knowledge

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
a) If you truly think you are then you are delusional

If you don't have any idea whatsoever how far the price will drop then I'm absolutely right.

b) No, you are still claiming special knowledge

Not at all. I'm just saying there was a bubble. There's nothing special about that.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Kidicious

If you don't have any idea whatsoever how far the price will drop then I'm absolutely right.


Not at all. I'm just saying there was a bubble. There's nothing special about that.

So why didn't/don't you short oil futures or buy puts, then Kid? What are you still doing working some crappy job in OKC?