They're becoming a mob

[Kidlicious]

Well they can smell the sandwich on the 3rd for sure.

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by Seedle


Uhh, the third? The election is on the 4th, and if the states out west matter, the results won't be in until the 5th in my time zone.

We won't. Colorado will probably put Obama over the top. Before 9 p.m. ET, the election will be called.

[KrazyHorse]

The election could be basically over when the polls in Virginia close....

[Dinner]

Ohio is solidly Obama at this point but the race seems close in North Carolina and Missouri. Those two won't save McCain but it will be interesting to see how they swing; they'll decide if it is an Obama blow out or just an Obama win.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Oerdin
Ohio is solidly Obama at this point

No.

[KrazyHorse]

Ohio polling has been all over the place (from McCain+2 to Obama+9) in the last week. Most of the polls are from McCain+2 to Obama+2 with a couple of outliers.

I think that Ohio will be the most interesting race to watch because there's been no consistent story emerging from the polls there.

[Q Classic]

Originally posted by Oerdin
Ohio is solidly Obama at this point but the race seems close in North Carolina and Missouri. Those two won't save McCain but it will be interesting to see how they swing; they'll decide if it is an Obama blow out or just an Obama win.

I don't know about "solid".

Fivethirtyeight has it projecting Dem at +2 for Obama; NC at +1.1 and Missouri at +1.3 for Obama.

The snapshots are +3.3, +1.5, +2.2, all for Obama.

The odds of him winning them are 71%, 63%, and 63%

[KrazyHorse]

The crucial races will be VA and CO.

If McCain somehow manages to push national polling 8+ percent between now and 2 weeks from now then it will come down to McCain winning both of these states (which will, assuming national poll numbers do that, be close)

[Q Classic]

Fivethirtyeight has Colorado being a likely Democratic state, and rumor has it that McCain's campaign is winding down there; Virginia's also likely Democratic, but no word on the state of McCain's state organization.

[KrazyHorse]

My point is not that CO is close, but that IF McCain manages to make the election close it will mean that VA and CO are close. To do that he needs to swing national polling in his favour by ~8 points in two weeks.

If McCain cedes either CO or VA then he cedes election. Electoral math doesn't allow any other conclusion, unless McCain somehow honestly believes he can win PA.

[Naked Gents Rut]

The crucial races will be VA and CO.

True.

[Guynemer]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
unless McCain somehow honestly believes he can win PA.

It appears that he does, and the cynical pessimist in me believes he probably does have a chance, depending on how much of the racist/xenophobic/Islamophobic/etc. vote he can stir up.

[KrazyHorse]

the cynical pessimist in me believes he probably does have a chance

If McCain wins PA I will eat my hat. With a nice Bernaise sauce.

[Naked Gents Rut]

It's hard to "stir up" the racist vote when don't even have the balls to mention legitimate issues like Wright. McCain is incompetent and has no chance in PA.

[KrazyHorse]

The chances of McCain winning PA (and having it matter!) are so slim as to defy my comprehension.