How big will Obama's victory be? (2nd Edition)

[EPW]

It now really is clear that Obama will win the election, the only question is by how much. Most sites that track this sort of thing have Obama somewhere around 325 EV +/- 25. If he wins NC, MO, and IN (which are virtually tied at the moment) and holds onto all the states he is ahead in, he could win 375. 400+ is pretty unlikely, but if the economic situation worsens, who knows?

I'll go with 375. It's slightly optimistic, but I think polls have been underestimating the youth vote and Obama will pull out all the close races.

[Agathon]

This is a most glorious troll.

[DRoseDARs]

It'll be a clear electoral victory though I seriously doubt over 300. 291-300 will be my vote, but it'll probably be a tighter race than that.

[Naked Gents Rut]

This is a most glorious troll.

How is it a troll? He speaks the truth.

[Agathon]

Originally posted by Naked Gents Rut

How is it a troll? He speaks the truth.

Trolls can be true. In fact the best ones are, like calling Americans dumb and making fun of Canadian beer.

[Dauphin]

This election or when he tries again in 4 years?

[Winston]

Originally posted by Dauphin
This election or when he tries again in 4 years?

Once again, thank God that presidential elections are decided by voters and not the forum nutty experts.

[Thue]

Heh. Also check out http://www.economist.com/vote2008/ , which is a global vote for the US presidency. mcCain is winning Georgia and Macedonia. The rest of the world prefers Obama, usually by a 80-20 margin...

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Is there any precedent for a candidate turning around a 5+% deficit in the last month of the election? I've read somewhere that there's not, but I can't find any online sources of historic polling data to confirm. There's still nothing to keep McCain from winning in the EC, though, even with Obama's current big lead in the popular vote; Obama's ahead in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado, but none of those leads is outside the margin of error. I stand by my prediction in the other thread (289-249), but no way is it a done deal.

[Darius871]

Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly
Is there any precedent for a candidate turning around a 5+% deficit in the last month of the election? I've read somewhere that there's not, but I can't find any online sources of historic polling data to confirm.

I recall that Dukakis led 47-41 before his convention and 55-38 after his convention, and Mondale led by 12 after his convention, but I can't find anything as late as early October for either. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if at least Dukakis led in early October by the 5-7% Obama does now, so who knows what could happen.

Of course, there are overwhelming dynamics in play this year that weren't present in 1984 or 1988, which make a similar comeback less likely. On the other hand, Obama has a few vulnerabilities that most Americans (by most I mean those that don't listen to talk radio or watch Faux News) haven't even heard of yet, or if they have heard of them, haven't heard particularly forceful arguments about them yet, thanks to the McCain campaign's incompetence/laziness. If they step up their game who knows what could happen.

Really though, about the only chance McCain has this late in the game is if Obama's caught on tape eating baby-meat off the genitals of a trannie hooker while chanting Satanic curses. If that happens McCain might, might squeeze into the margin of error, but I predict he'd probably still lose.

[SlowwHand]

Originally posted by Thue
Heh. Also check out http://www.economist.com/vote2008/ , which is a global vote for the US presidency. mcCain is winning Georgia and Macedonia. The rest of the world prefers Obama, usually by a 80-20 margin...

I hate to break the news to you, but when Americans vote, we really don't vote with the thought of who Thue wants elected.

[Dauphin]

Originally posted by Thue
Heh. Also check out http://www.economist.com/vote2008/ , which is a global vote for the US presidency. mcCain is winning Georgia and Macedonia. The rest of the world prefers Obama, usually by a 80-20 margin...

That site seems to think US is 80-20 too. Unless I is misreading.

[Zevico]

Good news--looks like everyone that's voted so far thinks Obama will win.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by Darius871


I recall that Dukakis led 47-41 before his convention and 55-38 after his convention, and Mondale led by 12 after his convention, but I can't find anything as late as early October for either. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if at least Dukakis led in early October by the 5-7% Obama does now, so who knows what could happen.

This blog entry from Daily Kos seems pretty well-informed -- perhaps in spite of it being from Daily Kos ; it also corresponds with my memories of '88 (I was in grad school at the time). The meat:

With Dukakis' polls declining the Democratis headed into their convention. The bounce was significant with a July 25 NBC-WSJ poll giving Dukakis a 51-34 percent lead and a August 3 CBS-NYT poll gave Dukakis a 50-33 percent lead (the 17 point lead so often referred to.) There are a couple interesting aspects of this "bounce." One it isn't so much a bounce for Dukakis as it is a fall for Bush. Dukakis is still hovering around the 50 point mark, but a large percentage of voters are now undecided. Again this is probably a phenomena of two relatively obscure candidates.

This lead evaporated very quickly. An August 7 Gallup poll gave Dukakis only a 7 point lead (49-42). Going into the Republican convention the Bush campaign was reporting that they were trailing Dukakis by 10 points. Their internal polling was actually showing that Bush was even and at times slightly ahead but they wanted to give the impression that Bush got a huge post-convention bounce.

By September Bush was building a larger lead (50-46 in a Sep 21 WP-ABC poll) but what all the polls indicated was that there was a general lack of enthusiasm for both candidates. More importantly in state by state polls Bush held a huge electoral advantage. Bush painted the election as a choice between "peace and prosperity or the possibility of risking it all on a lefty liberal." He never looked back and easily won the election.

So the Dukakis comparison doesn't apply -- or, if it does, it's McCain who's performing like Dukakis right now.

[Guynemer]

There's still a month left.

That is more than enough time for the Democratic Party to blow it. In fact, that is more than enough time for the Democratic Party to blow it, recover, and then blow it again.

The GOP is going to unleash an absolute onslaught of attack ads questioning Obama's character. And if you don't think that character ads are effective, you should speak to John Kerry.

I still think McCain is going to win.