How big will Obama's victory be? (2nd Edition)

[Rufus T. Firefly]

The thing about the character attacks -- and I agree that they're about to start in earnest -- is that they'll look desperate, which will help discredit them, and they'll seem to be trivializing the election in the wake of the financial crisis (which is certainly how the Dems will characterize them). For once, they could actually backfire.

But yeah, it ain't over.

[Guynemer]

Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly
The thing about the character attacks -- and I agree that they're about to start in earnest -- is that they'll look desperate, which will help discredit them, and they'll seem to be trivializing the election in the wake of the financial crisis (which is certainly how the Dems will characterize them). For once, they could actually backfire.

You have more faith in the attention span of the American people than I do, Rufus.

[SlowwHand]

http://www.amazon.com/

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly
The thing about the character attacks -- and I agree that they're about to start in earnest -- is that they'll look desperate,

I would argue that it depends on how the attacks are framed. You could have serious/substantive attacks on his aura as a reformer both in Washington and in the Illinois Senate, his connections to the Machine politics of Chicago where he abolutely refused to provide change we could believe in, or more seriously his actions in support of Robbert Blackwell, Jr.

[Guynemer]

Originally posted by SlowwHand
http://www.amazon.com/

Indeed, well said.

[SlowwHand]

You can buy a little trinket of support.

[Agathon]

Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly
Is there any precedent for a candidate turning around a 5+% deficit in the last month of the election?

The closest is probably the Labour Party in the UK election of 1992. The polls and conventional wisdom was that the Tories would lose and that Labour would probably win, but Labour ended up taking a beating. The main reason IIRC (and I was living there at the time, although I didn't vote because I was a poll tax evader) was that a lot of people said they were going to vote Labour, but were really going to vote Tory and were too ashamed to say so. And this was a Tory government that was on its last legs (although not quite as bad as the Republicans are now).

I'll be surprised if Obama wins, but it might be better if he doesn't, since the Presidency looks to be a poisoned chalice this time around, and there is absolutely no evidence that the voters are willing to change their own preferences in order to fix things. If Obama wins and makes a serious attempt to fix things, he'll be gone in four years. If he does a Clinton, then he'll probably last eight, if your country does.

[Guynemer]

Originally posted by SlowwHand
You can buy a little trinket of support.

Seriously, what the deuce are you talking about?

https://www.overstock.com

[Theben]

Originally posted by Agathon
I'll be surprised if Obama wins, but it might be better if he doesn't, since the Presidency looks to be a poisoned chalice this time around, and there is absolutely no evidence that the voters are willing to change their own preferences in order to fix things. If Obama wins and makes a serious attempt to fix things, he'll be gone in four years. If he does a Clinton, then he'll probably last eight, if your country does.

If he loses, we'll have 3 more far right SCOTUS appointments, which could well last our lifetimes. Kiss Roe vs. Wade goodbye, as well as any constitutional decisions NOT skewed by extreme conservative ideology.

Everything else Obama or McCain could do will last 4-8 years, with effects reaching another 10 at most. The SCOTUS issue will last 30 or more.

[Dauphin]

Originally posted by Agathon


The closest is probably the Labour Party in the UK election of 1992. The polls and conventional wisdom was that the Tories would lose and that Labour would probably win, but Labour ended up taking a beating. The main reason IIRC (and I was living there at the time, although I didn't vote because I was a poll tax evader) was that a lot of people said they were going to vote Labour, but were really going to vote Tory and were too ashamed to say so. And this was a Tory government that was on its last legs (although not quite as bad as the Republicans are now).

No, it was clearly the Sun wot won it.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Thue
Heh. Also check out http://www.economist.com/vote2008/ , which is a global vote for the US presidency. mcCain is winning Georgia and Macedonia. The rest of the world prefers Obama, usually by a 80-20 margin...

That's not fair, because Georgia and Macedonia are your only red states.

[chequita guevara]

While it's probably that Obama will win the popular vote by millions of votes, the GOP is nothing if it is not devious and committed to winning by any means, fair or foul. In 2000, 2004, and 2006, we saw approximately 4% deviations between vote tallies and exit polls. There's a 1 in 10,000 chance that would happen once. It just so happens that the Democrats won by such a large margin in 2006 that the election fraud perpetrated by the GOP couldn't overcome it.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Agathon
I'll be surprised if Obama wins, but it might be better if he doesn't, since the Presidency looks to be a poisoned chalice this time around, and there is absolutely no evidence that the voters are willing to change their own preferences in order to fix things. If Obama wins and makes a serious attempt to fix things, he'll be gone in four years. If he does a Clinton, then he'll probably last eight, if your country does.

FDR won by a landslde in 36' even though the economy was still ****ed up.

[Darius871]

Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly
The thing about the character attacks -- and I agree that they're about to start in earnest -- is that they'll look desperate, which will help discredit them...

Eh, that's what they said last time around too, and look how that turned out. In fact, that's what is said every time one candidate or another makes character attacks. Sure it's a token response, and a good one, but I fail to see why it would be any more or less effective a response than usual.

[Agathon]

Originally posted by Theben

If he loses, we'll have 3 more far right SCOTUS appointments, which could well last our lifetimes. Kiss Roe vs. Wade goodbye, as well as any constitutional decisions NOT skewed by extreme conservative ideology.

That's what most people in your country want. Only a minority of people like yourself actually care enough to vote against it. Middle class people will be able to send their daughters to Canada for abortions, and because welfare will be shot they won't have to pay for the upkeep of unwanted children, until those children become slave labour in the prison industrial complex, and in the meantime their own children won't have to go to the same schools as "those" children, or any of those "negroes".

I know that people like you and I think this is nuts, but we are in the minority. "The people" don't mind because they only care about themselves and their own. Of course this will end in disaster, but don't look to democracy to stave that off.

Everything else Obama or McCain could do will last 4-8 years, with effects reaching another 10 at most. The SCOTUS issue will last 30 or more.

So you think the Bush debacle will only have consequences for another couple of years? That's optimistic.