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  • Originally posted by DanS View Post
    Looking at that chart, if you bought at 57% off the highs during the great crash, you would be positive on stock price by 1936 -- only 4 years after you bought it. That's not even accounting for dividends you would have been paid by holding the stocks.
    And then been in the hole again for nearly another decade (again, ignoring dividends).
    "The French caused the war [Persian Gulf war, 1991]" - Ned
    "you people who bash Bush have no appreciation for one of the great presidents in our history." - Ned
    "I wish I had gay sex in the boy scouts" - Dissident

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    • What can I say? Yes, with one great crash, another massive bear market, a great depression, and a world war, you would have to wait another decade to be positive on stock price.

      Where's the shootin' gonna start?

      If these aren't excellent prices at which to invest, then you should invest in a Fallout-style underground bunker instead.
      Last edited by DanS; March 10, 2009, 17:51.
      I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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      • If these aren't excellent prices at which to invest, then you should invest in a Fallout-style underground bunker instead.
        That would also be silly. The price of said bunker will probably continue to fall for at least another year
        "The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists."
        -Joan Robinson

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        • grog want tank...Grog Want Tank... GROG WANT TANK!

          The trick isn't to break some eggs to make an omelette, it's convincing the eggs to break themselves in order to aspire to omelettehood.

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          • Originally posted by snoopy369 View Post
            At this point I don't think there's any choice other than buy.

            There are basically two scenarios:

            1. The market recovers, and fairly soon (low between now and end of summer)

            2. The market never recovers, and there is a fundamental change in how the market (and the US economy) works [ie, revolution, governmental takeover of the entire financial industry, abolishment of stock ownership or trade, something on that scale]

            2 is quite unlikely, but even if it does happen, who cares? There's no downside to buying now...
            What about a couple more..

            3. The market doesn't recover for many years. Then it partially recovers and then crashes again. Another decade goes by with the economy in shatters. Then there's a revolution.

            4. The market just takes a long time to recover.

            No one knows what's going to happen. Buying stocks now carries the same risk as if you would have bought them last year.
            I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
            - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

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            • Ugghh...many companies are now slashing dividends.

              That's bad news, because as was mentioned dividend yields attract investors during downturns.

              Companies cutting dividends now is kinda not good, especially when you consider that dividends were already historically aberrantly low.
              "Wait a minute..this isn''t FAUX dive, it's just a DIVE!"
              "...Mangy dog staggering about, looking vainly for a place to die."
              "sauna stories? There are no 'sauna stories'.. I mean.. sauna is sauna. You do by the laws of sauna." -P.

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              • For better or for worse; I just bought Ford. $2/share is a tough one to pass up.
                Monkey!!!

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                • Ford, really? Good luck.

                  -Arrian
                  grog want tank...Grog Want Tank... GROG WANT TANK!

                  The trick isn't to break some eggs to make an omelette, it's convincing the eggs to break themselves in order to aspire to omelettehood.

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                  • Originally posted by Kidicious View Post
                    What about a couple more..

                    3. The market doesn't recover for many years. Then it partially recovers and then crashes again. Another decade goes by with the economy in shatters. Then there's a revolution.

                    4. The market just takes a long time to recover.

                    No one knows what's going to happen. Buying stocks now carries the same risk as if you would have bought them last year.
                    3 is the same as my 2 4 is not particularly likely to happen. And buying stocks now certainly does not carry the same risk... the prices are lower, so a) you have less to lose and b) it's that much less likely that the stocks are fundamentally overvalued. It's much more likely that they are fundamentally UNDERvalued.
                    <Reverend> IRC is just multiplayer notepad.
                    I like your SNOOPY POSTER! - While you Wait quote.

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                    • Originally posted by Seeker View Post
                      Ugghh...many companies are now slashing dividends.

                      That's bad news, because as was mentioned dividend yields attract investors during downturns.

                      Companies cutting dividends now is kinda not good, especially when you consider that dividends were already historically aberrantly low.
                      Dividends seem like they're on their way out ... too many people don't play the stock market anymore to get dividends, but instead for the gambling aspect. Sigh.
                      <Reverend> IRC is just multiplayer notepad.
                      I like your SNOOPY POSTER! - While you Wait quote.

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                      • Originally posted by snoopy369 View Post
                        3 is the same as my 2 4 is not particularly likely to happen. And buying stocks now certainly does not carry the same risk... the prices are lower, so a) you have less to lose and b) it's that much less likely that the stocks are fundamentally overvalued. It's much more likely that they are fundamentally UNDERvalued.
                        There isn't as much risk because prices are lower? What do stock prices last year have to do with future prices? This is like a theory that if you're playing the slot machine and you've been losing for a long time that you are more likely to hit the big one. Isn't it?
                        I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
                        - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

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                        • Originally posted by snoopy369 View Post
                          3 is the same as my 2 4 is not particularly likely to happen. And buying stocks now certainly does not carry the same risk... the prices are lower, so a) you have less to lose and b) it's that much less likely that the stocks are fundamentally overvalued. It's much more likely that they are fundamentally UNDERvalued.
                          Except for the companies that are going to just go bankrupt. Doesn't matter if you buy them at $50 per share or $2. I suspect there are plenty of those.
                          "The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists."
                          -Joan Robinson

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                          • Risk of buying a stock at $50 >> risk of buying a stock at $2, in ANY down market. The outlay for 1,000 shares is 1/25th the price... therefore 1/25th the (maximum) risk.
                            <Reverend> IRC is just multiplayer notepad.
                            I like your SNOOPY POSTER! - While you Wait quote.

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                            • Originally posted by snoopy369 View Post
                              Risk of buying a stock at $50 >> risk of buying a stock at $2, in ANY down market. The outlay for 1,000 shares is 1/25th the price... therefore 1/25th the (maximum) risk.
                              That's nuts. Why not just always invest in penny stocks for less risk? No, that's more risk. Why do you believe what you do?
                              I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
                              - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

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                              • I think if any of the Big 3 survive, that it will be Ford.

                                JM
                                Jon Miller-
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