The Official 2008 Electoral College Prediction Thread

[Victor Galis]

fivethirtyeight.com is saying it predicts Obama is up by 8, the poll that gave him a 14 point lead has a +3 bias, and a +-3 margin of error. (In other words, not that surprising a result.)

[Victor Galis]

But yes my prediction requires a clean sweep of all swing states, and Georgia, North Dakota, and Montana.

I think if McCain implodes, that can happen.

[Boris Godunov]

Republicans are fleeing the sinking ship.

[The Emperor Fabulous]

Originally posted by Victor Galis
fivethirtyeight.com is saying it predicts Obama is up by 8, the poll that gave him a 14 point lead has a +3 bias, and a +-3 margin of error. (In other words, not that surprising a result.)

Says the only person putting Obama up over 400 EVs.

Believe me, I know Obama will win, and win big...but that's just CRAZY.

That includes states like MT, GA, MS, and ND, where Obama won't win...this year.

[Boris Godunov]

If Obama has a Reaganesque night, he'll carry GA and maybe ND. MT would be the most remote possibility of any state he could win. He will never win MS.

The absolute best case scenario I can come up with is 402-136 (that includes 1 vote from Omaha NE for Obama). And I think thats a pretty high improbability, of course.

[Victor Galis]

Originally posted by The Emperor Fabulous


Says the only person putting Obama up over 400 EVs.

Believe me, I know Obama will win, and win big...but that's just CRAZY.

That includes states like MT, GA, MS, and ND, where Obama won't win...this year.

MS is not part of the prediction.

It's basically every state 538 gives Obama currently + WV, ND, MT, and GA. I openly admit it was overly optimistic. Predicting anything less at this point seems like a cop out though since there's so little time left.

[Victor Galis]

Actually 538 gives Obama better odds in MT than in GA.

[Ramo]

A sign of how ****ed the Republicans are:

October 15, 2008
Categories: Barack Obama

Voting for Obama anyway
I just got an astounding e-mail from a Republican consultant I know well. He's a guy who's always thought Obama had a "glass jaw," and was always among those agitating for hitting Obama harder.

Recently, he conducted a focus group in an upper-Midwestern state, showing them the kind of ad he thought would work: A no-holds-barred attack, cut for an independent group, which hasn't aired.

I'm just going to reprint his amazed e-mail about the focus group:

Reagan Dems and Independents. Call them blue-collar plus. Slightly more Target than Walmart.

Yes, the spot worked. Yes, they believed the charges against Obama. Yes, they actually think he's too liberal, consorts with bad people and WON'T BE A GOOD PRESIDENT...but they STILL don't give a f***. They said right out, "He won't do anything better than McCain" but they're STILL voting for Obama.

The two most unreal moments of my professional life of watching focus groups:

54 year-old white male, voted Kerry '04, Bush '00, Dole '96, hunter, NASCAR fan...hard for Obama said: "I'm gonna hate him the minute I vote for him. He's gonna be a bad president. But I won't ever vote for another god-damn Republican. I want the government to take over all of Wall Street and bankers and the car companies and Wal-Mart run this county like we used to when Reagan was President."

The next was a woman, late 50s, Democrat but strongly pro-life. Loved B. and H. Clinton, loved Bush in 2000. "Well, I don't know much about this terrorist group Barack used to be in with that Weather guy but I'm sick of paying for health insurance at work and that's why I'm supporting Barack."

I felt like I was taking crazy pills. I sat on the other side of the glass and realized...this really is the Apocalypse. The Seventh Seal is broken and its time for eight years of pure, delicious crazy....

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/Voting_for_Obama_anyway.html

A culturally conservative guy who admits that he has absolutely no confidence in Obama is voting for him because he wants to nationalize Wall Street, like he believes good 'ol Reagan would've done. A pro-life woman who thinks that Obama was a terrorist is going to vote for him because she needs cheaper health insurance.

The Republican apocalypse is truly awesome.

[Kuciwalker]

Why is it a surprise that a Republican who voted for Kerry is voting for Obama? Or that a Democrat is?

[Ramo]

The guy who is culturally conservative and voted for both Bush and Dole, and has no confidence in Obama - admitting that he's probably no better than McCain - said that he won't ever vote for another Republican. The woman was convinced by the ad that Obama was a terrorist, and is voting for him anyways.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Victor Galis
Actually 538 gives Obama better odds in MT than in GA.

Based on fewer polls. I think GA is much more likely because of the large African American population, and the early voting numbers right now are ridiculously favorable for Obama.

[Dauphin]

Originally posted by Guynemer
Fix it, Dauphin!

I figure a write in vote.

Give it to McCain. I feel sorry for him.

[BeBMan]

Originally posted by Ramo
The woman was convinced by the ad that Obama was a terrorist, and is voting for him anyways.

[Boris Godunov]

538 posted this on the early voting estimates for Obama so far in five key swing states, and it's pretty astonishing:

(from left to right, columns are: State, Date of survey, percentage of eligible voters voting early, candidate advantage in early voting so far, and current polling average of Likely voters in the state).

NM 10/13 10% Obama +23% Obama +6%
OH 10/13 12% Obama +18% Obama +4%
GA 10/12 18% Obama +6% McCain +11%
IA 10/9 14% Obama +34% Obama +10%
NC 10/6 5% Obama +34% McCain +5%

We should caveat that these are not hard-and-fast numbers. Estimates of early voting results are subject to the same statistical vagaries as any other sort of subgroup analysis, such as response bias and small sample sizes.

Nevertheless, Obama is leading by an average of 23 points among early voters in these five states, states which went to George W. Bush by an average of 6.5 points in 2004.

Is this a typical pattern for a Democrat? Actually, it's not. According to a study by Kate Kenski at the University of Arizona, early voters leaned Republican in both 2000 and 2004; with Bush earning 62.2 percent of their votes against Al Gore, and 60.4 percent against John Kerry.

...

What these results would seem to suggest, however, is that there are fairly massive advantages for the Democrats in enthusiasm and/or turnout operations. They imply that Obama is quite likely to turn out his base in large numbers; the question is whether the Republicans will be able to do the same.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/obama-dominating-among-early-voters-in.html

[Victor Galis]

Originally posted by Boris Godunov


Based on fewer polls. I think GA is much more likely because of the large African American population, and the early voting numbers right now are ridiculously favorable for Obama.

Will I be kicking myself for having wasted my vote in Indiana instead of having tried to vote in Georgia? Only time will tell.

Oh well, my ties to the state of Georgia are probably too loose at this point to justify being able to register there. (Though I might still be visiting friends there on election day.)