The Official 2008 Electoral College Prediction Thread

[Imran Siddiqui]

GA surprisingly close as well.

Uh... unless you mean like 8% to be "surprisingly close".

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui

GA surprisingly close as well.

Uh... unless you mean like 8% to be "surprisingly close".

That would definitely be closer than expected, considering how Georgia has voted in the most recent elections.

But I think it could easily be under 5%.

Early voting: 40% are African-American. This compares to the fact that AAs compromise only 29% of the state's population.

And if Obama somehow only loses by a 2-3% margin, then I bet Cleland loses reelection.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Chambliss.

And I doubt it'll be 5% or Chambliss loses.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
Chambliss.

And I doubt it'll be 5% or Chambliss loses.

Oops, right, Chambliss.

Martin is polling quite well right now, and the excitement among AAs coming to vote for Obama might be enough to carry him on election day. It's a longshot for him still, but not impossible.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Jim Martin is a nice guy (I've met him a few times and given him $50 for the primary fight), but he's not going to win. He just doesn't have the money (as evidenced by his lack of commercials in Atlanta... which is, obviously, his base).

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
Jim Martin is a nice guy (I've met him a few times and given him $50 for the primary fight), but he's not going to win. He just doesn't have the money (as evidenced by his lack of commercials in Atlanta... which is, obviously, his base).

Same thing was said about John Tester in MT in 2006. Democratic enthusiasm + Obama's superior ground game getting people to the polls can make a big difference. As I said, it's not likely, but not impossible, either.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Even with the bump in general election for Obama, McCain is still up by 8 or so in Georgia polling.

[Ramo]

Chambliss is in a much better shape than Burns was in 2006 (remember Abramoff?), though. And MT is a much cheaper state than GA. I like those early vote numbers, but don't know if they mean all that much in a place like GA. Early voters are the more organized, motivated force, and that's Obama. Let's see if that breakdown holds up in a couple weeks.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
Even with the bump in general election for Obama, McCain is still up by 8 or so in Georgia polling.

Yes, and I don't think it's impossible that Obama could narrow that gap another 3-4 pts by election day. Of course, we're talking a national landslide if GA gets that close. And the way McCain has been running things lately, he's practically begging for a wipe out.

[Impaler[WrG]]

I couldn't remember how I came up with my prediction in June (O 385-M 153)so I used those EC map generators and came up with a scenario.

Keep in mind at the time Obama was riding high on the big rally he had after winning the nomination, he now looks to be back at that high water point. If he goes any higher it will be his largest lead ever and he will need at least 2-3% more to get to the prediction I gave,

Kerry States we know Obama will win + all the battleground states that are on the radar (Colorado, Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Virginia, Nevada) + "landslide" states of West Virginia and Montana, North Dakota and Nebraska - 1 for McCain winning the western congregational district of Nebraska or one district of Maine.

Alternatively Obama wins North Carolina but losses North Dakota or Montana and Nebraska overall and one district of Maine. This scenario is far more likely then the first as NC is indeed moving towards Obama and Obama has abandoned North Dakota.

[Victor Galis]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui

GA surprisingly close as well.

Uh... unless you mean like 8% to be "surprisingly close".

That is surprisingly close for GA .

Also, McCain pulled his campaign out of Michigan.

[Boris Godunov]

And the latest GA poll has Obama down only 6%.

[Imran Siddiqui]

1) InAdv/PollPosition has always had the polling data closer than the others (their 7/2 poll had McCain +1, but that was bracketed by a 6/29 Strategic Vision poll that had McCain +8 and a Rasmussen poll on 7/17 that had McCain at +11)

2) It also has McCain at 50%. Hard for Obama to beat that .

Besides, this is at McCain's nader... his numbers will only go up after a bailout... unless there is an October surprise.

I don't think anyone that's actually lived in Georgia believes its going to end up being close. As Victor Galis half jokingly said, 8% is considered close for a national Democrat.

And Real Clear Politics, even though now predicting a 331.2-206.8 win for Obama has Georgia 88% going for McCain:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
Besides, this is at McCain's nader...

McCain is in league with Nader??? I knew it!

[The Emperor Fabulous]

Originally posted by The Emperor Fabulous
I just can't help but laugh at those of you who think McCain will get +300 EVs.

He would have to keep (stats are from Pollster.net):

Updated 10/13/08 (Original 9/30/08)

NEW MEXICO - O +6.2 (O +6.2)
IOWA - O +11.4 (O +9.8)
FLORIDA - O +5.6 (M +2.1)
OHIO - O +4.2 (M +2.9)
COLORADO - O +6.3 (O +3)
INDIANA - M +2.5 (M +2.5)
NORTH CAROLINA - O +0.7 (M +1.2)
VIRGINIA - O +3.1 (M +0.4)
NEVADA - O +2.1 (M +1.8)

Then, he'd have to take:

MINNESOTA - O +4.7 (O +3.2)
NEW HAMPSHIRE - O +5.3 (Tie)
or
PENNSYLVANIA - O +9.8 (O +3.3)
or
MICHIGAN - O +6.6 (O +4.3)

UPDATE: Plus, these new "swing" states (some for future trend lines):

GEORGIA - M +7.5
MISSOURI - M +1.7
MONTANA - M +7.7
NORTH DAKOTA - M +11.1
WEST VIRGINIA - M +1.1

He could still get +300 and lose NM and IA if he picked up NH AND two other Kerry states. But come on, its like a 15% chance Obama won't keep all the Kerry states and not pick up Iowa, the state that made his campaign.

McCain could win, but he won't get over 300.

Updated trendlines, plus some new states. Bleaker and bleaker for McCain.

My Prediction: Kerry + IA + NM + CO + VA + NV - NH =

OBAMA - 287 MCCAIN - 251

I'll check back after the post-debate polls come out this week.

10/13 Prediction: Kerry (Incl NH) + IA + NM + CO + VA + NV + FL + OH =

OBAMA - 338 MCCAIN - 200