The Official 2008 Electoral College Prediction Thread

[Guynemer]

The problem with most of these projections, as I see it, is Michigan. Between Palin's "hockey mom" persona and the downfall of that buffoon Mayor Kilpatrick, there is no way in heaven Michigan is "leaning" Dem. Mark my words, Michigan goes red in November.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Just thought I'd bump this in the wake of recent polls.

RCP now has Obama winning 301-237 (ahead 249-163 w/o tossups)

538 now has Obama winning 329-209 (though they're counting Florida for Obama, which seems crazy)

Pollster.com has Obama ahead 229-174, and would the results be a tie if the tossups broke the way they're now leaning and the two states they're showing as tied (NH and VA) both break for McCain.

Just FYI.

[Guynemer]

God, can you imagine the nightmare of 269-269?

[Rufus T. Firefly]

269-269 would give the election to Obama; that would only be a problem if Obama lost the popular vote, which seems unlikely right now.

[Guynemer]

Wait, I thought 269-269 goes to the House, where each state delegation votes as one. The Dems have a majority, but by state delegations, doesn't the GOP have more states? And we'll have all these calls for state delegations to vote for the candidate who won the state, regardless of the nationwide popular vote. Does the DC delegate get a vote in this situation?

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Nope, the Dems have a majority in 27 state delegations, iirc; and there's no way those delegations are going to give up the White House just because their states went red instead of blue.

[Guynemer]

Really? I'd have thought, just based on demographics, that most of the Dem majority was due to the New England and West Coast delegations. Well, surprise surprise.

It would still be a nightmare if McCain won the popular vote, though. As it stands, it seems like that would be an unlikely scenario to put it lightly, but not impossible.

[Wiglaf]

Jon Miller: Tie 269-269 (McCain almost certainly the winner in this case)

This isn't true, seeing as it would take Republican majority in the house. The odds are against this.

Uh, no, that couldn't happen.

Yes it can. Democrats take senate, Republicans take house, tie = McCain/Obama.

The final result will be 583-0 McCain.

[Asher]

Winston: McCain 346-192

Crazy ****ing Euros.

[Wiglaf]

I don't' see you making a prediction. Too busy wanking I bet. I am tired of employees who watch porn at work. Have you ever been in the Pentagon? Nothing but porn and guns.

[Guynemer]

Rufus is right; as it stands, the Dems lead 27-21 by House Delegations, with Kansas and Arizona(!) tied.

States that have a Blue House, but are likely to go to McCain in the EC are: North and South Dakota, Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee, and West Virginia.

Blue House states that are "battlegrounds" include: Indiana, Colorado, North Carolina, New Hampshire.

Red House states likely to go Obama number only one, Delaware.

Red House battlegrounds: Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, Florida.


So, if we do end up 269-269, those are the state delegations to keep your eyes on.

[Asher]

I know better than try to predict the activities of massive groups of demonstrably retarded people.

Bush in power for eight years. Really, why is anyone bothering to predict?

It wouldn't surprise me to see Palin murder McCain and then get elected with 85% of the votes. Your country is amazing, Wiglaf.

[Guynemer]

What surprises me is that DC gets three EC votes, but if the election does go to the House, DC is **** outta luck, even if it's deadlocked 25-25.

[Unimatrix11]

Well - i wont give a guess, until i know, what kind of machines are used for the elections this time - the rigged ones again ?

BTW: One person at least needs to say it in a thread like this: This system is so outdated, not representative and so badly in need for reform, like a firaxis game at release... Why not just go with the popular vote ?

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by Guynemer
Rufus is right; as it stands, the Dems lead 27-21 by House Delegations, with Kansas and Arizona(!) tied.

That explains how Rufus came to his conclusion.

At first I thought he was nuts (no, not Rufus, never!). Most states are rural and rural tends to vote Republican. I didn't think to look at the make up of the actual congressional delegations.

And with generic Dems out pacing generic Repugs, those congressional delegations should become even more blue.